Robinson Cano is one of several value play options with upside on FanDuel
This week we are taking a look at some of the ways to buy low on batters who are still coming at major discounts on some of the bigger daily fantasy sports (DFS) sites. The “long term” in baseball is a lot longer than most people realize, and it can lead to some incredible values on a week-to-week basis in DFS. Here are some guys we can buy low on this week.
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Six to Target
Robinson Cano
On FanDuel, Cano’s price has dropped to an alarmingly low number. He is sitting below $3,000, and any way you slice it, this is simply too cheap to pass up. Cano is having a very rough year at the plate with an OPS in the .600’s. This is light years away from his career averages. And some numbers aren’t helping him. His K’s are up and his BB’s are down. That is somewhat of a problem, but they aren’t way, way off his career numbers. His BABIP is about 30 points off his career averages while the batted ball profile is very much in line with what he’s done throughout his career. The big number is his HR/FB rate is 2.8%. This is crazy low and one has to think we will see regression here being that the rest of the batted ball profile looks in line. I think he’s one of the best deals available right now.
Troy Tulowitzki
This is another guy whose price has dipped steadily in the short term. Like Cano, Tulo has some issues at the plate that are troubling. He’s basically done taking walks and is striking out more. The walks are particularly concerning, as the 2.6% BB rate is way off his career averages. He’s swinging and missing more than ever, and he’s missing a lot more on balls out of the zone. This could be him pressing because the power numbers are down thanks to a lower HR/FB rate. And though he’s not playing in Coors this week, he’s going in Cincinnati and Philly, two great hitter’s parks. This is the time to buy on this guy.
Ian Kinsler
Hasn’t hit a home run this year. Through 205 plate appearances he has exactly zero dingers. Though he isn’t a huge masher, this simply doesn’t look correct. His LD% is up this season (the groundballs are too, though not to an alarming degree). It doesn’t look, from the numbers, like he’s dealing with any injury concerns. It just very much looks like he’s running bad. He won’t be going in any power parks over the next week, so he isn’t going to get help there. But he’s priced like a guy who is done hitting home runs, and that simply isn’t the case.
Melky Cabrera
Our system thinks you should be playing Melky almost every day on FanDuel unless he’s facing an ace-ish lefty. After hitting 16 home runs last year, Melky has only one of the season. This is in spite of moving from one great hitter’s park in the Rogers Centre to another in U.S. Cellular Field. I suspect we see an uptick in power from the guy. He hits at the top of the lineup meaning the plate appearance volume is there for a low price. And his price has dipped to punt prices because those balls aren’t scraping over the wall. This is bound to change because the rest of the batted ball profile is in line.
David Ortiz
Papi’s having a down fantasy year, largely due to an apparent power outage. So what’s going on here? Well, he’s traded fly balls for line drives and grounders, and he’s had the worst of all worlds. His line drives and grounders should normally translate to an increased BABIP, but bad luck has him sitting at a .233 figure that’s .70 points off his career levels. And the fly balls he IS hitting aren’t leaving the yard – his 13% HR/FB% is 5% off the 18% number he posted over the last five years. While some decline in this number is inevitable, the rest of his batted ball data suggests that he’s either going to start making up his lost production in home runs or batting average at some point soon.
Chase Utley
Still think you are in a great place to buy this guy. The BABIP still hasn’t crept above .200 on the season and no matter which way you look at it, this is a serious run of bad luck. Granted it’s crept up in the short term, but not enough to bring his prices all the way into the realm of normal. he’ll be facing some weaker Rockies’ arms over the weekend in Philly, one of the best hitters’ parks for lefty bats.
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James Davis is a correspondent at FantasyPros, and he’s also a founder of Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings, a site that gives daily fantasy picks for all of the major sports every day, and offers access to its projection system. To hear more from James, look for his weekly column here at FantasyPros, or follow DFSR @dailyfantasysr.
