Is Starling Marte’s power surge sustainable?
The book on Starling Marte heading into the season certainly told us all he was going to be impressive. It said he would steal bases, bat for average, score runs, and hit a FEW homers. A gaudy projection would have been to peg Marte to hit 15 home runs. Well it is time to exchange that book.
Thursday’s game against the San Diego Padres featured Marte slugging his 10th home run of the season. Only 45 games into the season, certainly no one expected that number. At his current pace, Marte is projected to eclipse 30 homers on the season, including himself with the elite power hitters of the league.
So what gives? It is pretty tough to label this a fluke when Marte is hitting another home run every few games. It also seems challenging to stamp the name Starling in the 30-homer club. Let’s meet in the middle. I don’t think it is out of the question to peg Marte for 20-to-25 homers this season, and firmly entrench him as one of the top-tier fantasy batters in the league. The metrics support almost everything Marte does. The best part of it all, he hasn’t sacrificed anything for the power he is getting. As a matter of fact his GB% is up this year while his FB% is down, and he has an above average BABIP of .330 that he is very capable of maintaining. So how is he hitting home runs with an elevated ground ball rate?
Well, despite his FB% being down, his HR/FB% is through the roof at 37.5%. This is indicative of Marte getting the proper contact on pitches that he is capable of hitting a home run on, and it is well above his career average of 15.5%. Not only that, Marte is pulling more balls this season, and using the field in a better way to increase power. Regression police might label Marte’s GB% as a red flag. Although it certainly is possible that the increase in ground balls could very well catch up to Marte, and sap this power, he is providing us with all the evidence to believe the power surge is real. The career high slugging percentage of .517 puts Marte in elite power company. It lends to his solid slash line of .279/.333/.517.
Moving away from the power category does nothing to diminish the value of Marte. Although seven stolen bases on the season might be slightly lower than expectations, there is no reason not to predict another 30+ stolen base season. His average sits right at .279, and that could rise if he continues to work on lowering his K%. Projected before the season in the neighborhood of the 50th ranked fantasy player without a high power projection means the power should help him make the jump to a top-25 player. The stars are undoubtedly the limit for Marte, and who doesn’t love a player that is capable of hitting .285 with 20+ HRs and 30+SBs? Only player in the 20/30 club last year? Top-ten draft pick Carlos Gomez. It is starting to look like Gomez might have some company.
Rest of season projection: .280 AVG, 90 Runs, 23 HRs, 80 RBI, 30 SBs
Grant Evje is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Grant check out his archive and follow him@GrantEvje.
