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Fantasy Impact: Steve Cishek Loses Marlins’ Closer Role

The Marlins have removed Steve Cishek from their closer role

The Marlins have removed Steve Cishek from their closer role

Steve Cishek’s name has never been mentioned alongside guys like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. He was, however, good enough in 2014 that he perhaps deserved a spot just a notch below those guys in the top tier of fantasy closers. Last season, he converted 39 of 43 save opportunities. He struck out 11.57 batters per nine innings, walked only 2.89 in that span, and posted a 3.17 ERA/2.17 FIP.

Unfortunately for Cishek and the Marlins, this season has been a completely different story. He has already blown the same number of saves he did all last season. His ERA is an astronomical 10.32. His 5.28 FIP shows that he hasn’t really been much better than results have shown. It has been well documented that he has lost some of the zip on his fastball, averaging almost 2 mph less than last season. He has also seen less movement on all of his pitches except for his slider. His slider may actually be moving too much, making it easy for hitters to tell when it is coming.

Bottom line, whatever the specific reason may be, Cishek has already had a rough season, and it is only mid-May. After blowing two straight saves on Sunday and Monday, manager Mike Redmond removed Cishek from the closer’s role and will allow him to pitch “early in games” in hopes that he regains the form that has made him such a valuable piece for the Marlins since 2011.

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Based on the fact that the Fish are reportedly deep in talks with Rafael Soriano as well as kicking the tires on closers from teams that are willing to sell, it seems like the team’s confidence in Cishek has disappeared. If this were seen as a temporary move, the team wouldn’t be so eager to sign a guy like Soriano or to give up prospects for a guy like Francisco Rogriguez of the Milwaukee Brewers or Jonathan Papelbon of the Philadelphia Phillies. Because of the sudden and rapidly increasing interest in acquiring a new closer, Cishek has gone from one of the first closers drafted in fantasy leagues to a guy who can pretty much safely be dropped across the board. At this point, it doesn’t seem like the Marlins will even have him in positions where he can earn holds, at least not until he proves himself worthy of such opportunities.

In terms of who will close for the Marlins, there are several possible answers to that question. Whomever the Fish tab as their closer, that pitcher will quickly shoot up in rankings and ownership. It is a situation to keep an eye on, as some of the options have significant upside, while others may not be as exciting, but will still be a closer on a team that is expected to win games.

The most likely option, especially in the short-term, is current Marlins set-up man A.J. Ramos. Ramos has never saved a game in the majors, but has 86 minor league saves under his belt. He has elite strikeout numbers (10.20 K/9 career, 11.12 K/9 this season), but has always had issues with his control. For his career, he has walked 5.07 batters per nine innings and actually led the league last season with a 6.05 BB/9 rate. This year, however, he seems to be throwing more strikes, allowing only 3.18 BB/9. So he is striking guys out more often and walking fewer. Already a great reliever with fantasy value regardless of saves, Ramos would skyrocket into a must-own if placed in the closer’s role. He may even be worth picking up now in deeper leagues since he will provide Ks at an excellent rate even if not in the ninth inning role.

Another potential in-house option is the conversion of starter Tom Koehler to closer. Koehler has been in the starting rotation for a while now, starting 32 games last season and 23 the year before. He has historically (and even more so this season) pitched very well in the first three innings of a game before falling apart after that. His ERA the first time through the order is below 1.00, while his ERA in the fourth inning, usually the first time batters are getting a second look, is over 20.00. With Opening Day starter Henderson Alvarez set to return to the rotation soon and his replacement David Phelps pitching extremely well, Koehler may be the odd man out. He has some experience in working out of the bullpen, but not in late-inning situations. While Koehler doesn’t have the elite numbers you’d like to see out of a closer (6.66 career K/9, 6.46 this season) he still seems to know how to get guys out the first time they face him. Whether Redmond would seriously consider Koehler at the end of games remains to be determined, but he would be an interesting guy to have as a closer, both in fantasy and in real games. Koehler will be worth picking up if he does indeed become the closer, but won’t have much fantasy value otherwise, especially if relegated to the middle innings.

The other option, the one that has seemingly been gaining the most traction in recent days, is free agent closer Rafael Soriano. The Marlins have been meeting with his agent, Scott Boras, but have yet to make an offer for his services. Soriano finished last season with 32 saves and a 3.19 ERA. He struck out 8.56 per 9 and walked 2.76. His overall numbers look good, and he was in fact great in the first half of 2014. But his second-half numbers are concerning. His first-half ERA was 0.97 and hitters were batting only .153 against him. He was a completely different pitcher in the second half, posting a 6.48 ERA and allowing a .299 batting average against. His second-half struggles, plus a reported desire for a big payday and a guaranteed closer’s spot, have kept him unsigned through mid-May despite a few teams needing bullpen help. If signed by the Fish, he would presumably need a few weeks to get into “game shape” and then would need to prove himself worthy of the ninth-inning role. He may ultimately be the choice the Marlins make, but he seems like the most hassle considering the likely price tag. He’d be worth owning in fantasy if given the closer’s role, as all full-time closers are, but he wouldn’t be as valuable as if Ramos were to takeover the role.

This is definitely a situation to keep an eye on, and for now all we know is that Cishek can be dropped. Ramos should already be owned in leagues that count holds, and can be picked up in non-holds leagues if you have an available spot and don’t mind hanging onto a guy who will help with Ks and ERA even if he doesn’t put up saves right away.

David A Marcillo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMarcillo77.

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