Michael Florio discusses Jon Lester’s value and why he’s a buy low candidate.
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It’s safe to say Jon Lester’s first month with the Cubs hasn’t gone according to plan, but the team is not ready to give up on him and neither should fantasy owners. In fact, if you are not a Jon Lester owner, it would be wise of you to attempt to buy low on the fantasy ace.
Lester currently sports a 0-2 record with a 6.23 ERA in four starts so far this season. However, slow starts are nothing new for him. In his career, he has a 4.05 ERA in March/April, with a 1.34 WHIP, higher than any other month. In 2014, arguably his best season, he posted a 1.23 WHIP and 3.10 ERA, before going on to post video game numbers the rest of the season.
While that may be enough to convince some, it goes way deeper than just him being prone to slow starts.
Many claimed that Lester’s 2014 was a fluke, as his strikeout rate jumped, walks decreased and ERA was more than a run below his career rate. However, through his first four outings this season, his K/9 rate has actually increased from last years 9.01 to 9.97. His walk rate is still well below his career rate of 3.06, but slightly up from 2014 (1.97), sitting this year at 2.06.
While his ERA sits at a hideous 6.23, his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 2.25, better than last years mark of 2.80 and his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) sits at 2.39, well below last years 3.10. His Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) sits at a whopping .424, which is both way above league average and his career rate at .302. In fact, it is the highest BABIP of all pitchers in the league, by a pretty significant margin too. Add that with his awful 58.3 percent left on base (LOB) rate, which is sure to go up, and it shows that Lester has been a victim of some very bad luck. What I like to say is that he has been getting single’d to death, and that is fluky for a pitcher with his stuff.
Looking at his career numbers, it’s a safe bet to see that LOB rate increase in the ballpark of 75 percent, and his FIP and xFIP both indicate that Lester has pitched way better than advertised.
Despite the struggles, Lester has also been successful at keeping the ball in the park, allowing only one home run this year, something he has done well in his career.
With his velocity being identical on his fastball and a tad slower on his off-speed pitches, the only real concern is his slider being 1 MPH slower, indicating that there is not much fantasy owners should be afraid of. Owners that have Lester should sit tight, but others should attempt to buy low, especially in deeper formats such as 16-team leagues or NL-only leagues. He will provide owners with over a strikeout per inning, a solid WHIP and K/BB rate, while keeping the ball in the park and pitching to a sub three ERA.
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Michael is a Staff Writer for RotoExperts. You can follow him on Twitter @MichaelFFlorio.
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