Jamie Calandro discusses matchups and planning for Week 5.
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Welcome to this edition of fantasy baseball’s planner for Week 5 (May 4 – May 10). Whether you play in a league that offers weekly or daily lineup changes, you can still gain a distinct advantage by scouring the matchups for the week ahead and planning accordingly. This is the time to get your FAAB bids in or to make your waiver claims, and I’m here to help target to right guys.
In my DFS work on Fantasy Team Advice, I often write about the benefits of stacking your lineups against certain pitchers (or the reverse – targeting pitchers against certain lineups). While I don’t recommend piling on a ton of hitters from one team in seasonal leagues, you’ll find that the analysis behind the selections is similar if you’re a DFS player.
STREAMING PITCHERS
Before we get to some solid SP plays this week, here are a few bits of news and notes to highlight:
- Yordano Ventura has dropped the appeal for his seven-game suspension, so predicting the Royals’ rotation for the week is a daunting task.
- As of right now, we do not know who is going to take Adam Wainwright’s spot in the Cardinals’ rotation. I’m hoping it’s Marco Gonzales, as he has tremendous upside and two favorable draws this week.
- The Mets only play five games this week, so they should have no two-start pitchers on the schedule.
- It has yet to be officially determined who will replace Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees, but it looks like it will be Chase Whitley.
OK, without stealing too much thunder from the good people who put out two-start pitcher articles, let’s see what we can dig up to stream this week:
START
Matt Shoemaker (LAA) – vs. SEA, vs. HOU
Shoemaker is off to a bit of a rocky start for the Angels. He does have two wins despite posting a 6.00 ERA (4.40 xFIP) and a .301 BAA, and the 12.9% HR/FB% is a tad worrisome. He has two favorable home starts in which to get back on track this week (Seattle and Houston), and I think you can safely go ahead and activate (or pick him up if someone cut bait). The Mariners currently rank 22nd in the Majors with a .299 team wOBA, and have only been able to generate a .149 ISO vs. RHP despite having some solid lefties in their lineup (plus Nelson Cruz). He also faces the Astros who are actually 9th in the league in wOBA right now, but are striking out at an alarming rate (24.3%, most in the league). Shoemaker carries a career 8.11 K/9 which plays well in these two scenarios. Fire him up this week.
Jesse Hahn (OAK) – @MIN, @SEA
The young fireballer has not had the K-rate we would have hoped for so far, but his walk rate is down, and he is great at limiting damage (career 7.4% HR/FB%). It would seem to be a turnoff that he has two road starts rather than the friendly confines of Oakland, but not so fast. Minnesota and Seattle are both neutral to pitcher-friendliness as well, and offer solid matchups for the pitcher. As I said in the Shoemaker blurb, the Mariners are not doing any sort of damage yet outside of Cruz, and the Twins are currently ranked 26th overall in team wOBA with .283 mark. They are also last by far in ISO with a .099 with very little threat from their LHB.
SIT
Ross Detwiler (TEX) – @HOU, @TB
This is in response to several twitter questions I’ve gotten throughout the week given the two “easy” matchups he has in regards to whether he should be streamed. Despite the fact that Detwiler faces the Rays and Astros who rank 29th and 30th respectively in K%, starting him this week earns a firm “no” from me. Detwiler has allowed a career .347 wOBA to all right-handed bats (which the Astros and Rays feature heavily), and his 5.43 K/9 and 3.00 BB/9 should tell you to take the hitters, not the pitcher. Leave Detwiler where he is, and don’t give it a second thought.
TOP LINEUPS TO ATTACK
HOUSTON ASTROS
The ‘Stros have now developed a reputation of flat out stinking for a few years now, but it’s not totally fair anymore (after all, they are in first place and tied for the best record in the AL!). Houston hitters play a full seven games this week, and face three LHP in the first four games. Houston currently ranks fourth in the league in wOBA against lefties, and have several guys (besides the obvious) that you can plug in for the week. The most logical choice to expect big things from is Jose Altuve, who has a career .386 wOBA and .138 ISO vs LHP. He also had an extremely low K-rate of 7.5% last season, which should save you any crazy negatives if you play in points leagues. If you had been forcing Evan Gattis to the bench due to his early-season struggles, now is the time to get him back in. His early K-rate of 31.6% is simply tragic, but his power upside simply can’t be ignored, especially since we know he’ll be facing multiple lefties this week. Gattis has a career .224 ISO, and power like that from a catcher comes at a premium. Additional options include Chris Carter, who falls into a similar category as Gattis, and Luis Valbuena. Valbuena can be a very sneaky play this week. With Jed Lowrie on the shelf, Valbuena has moved up into the two-hole, and is currently torching lefties for a .367 wOBA and .286 ISO (he’s also a switch-hitter so he’s viable for the whole week from a platoon perspective).
ARIZONA DIAMONBACKS
Other than Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo, the D-Backs lineup features a lot of guys who are likely either on your bench or your waiver wire. This week is a prime opportunity to swoop, as they also play a full seven games in seven days, with three of them in Coors Field and the other four back home in Arizona. The park effect doesn’t get much more favorable than that, and you should take full advantage if you have the roster space to play with. Ender Inciarte is currently floating around many waiver wires and is riding a tidy seven-game hitting streak. Inciarte has a 110 wRC+ so far in 2015 and has been given the endorsement by the management to lead off most every game. He is an awesome source of runs and SB this week. I also like Chris Owings, who has shown reverse-split tendencies this year, meaning he hits same-handed pitching much better. Of the six confirmed starters facing Arizona this week, all are right-handed. If Yasmany Tomas is still on the wire, pick him up and start him. He has been batting fifth and sixth and carries immense upside. I’m also not opposed to giving David Peralta a shot. He has not had the most consistent playing time, but as I said the D-Backs face six righties, and Peralta has an awesome .379 wOBA and .204 ISO vs. RHP for his career.
NEW YORK YANKEES
I’m sure you know the Yankees you own that should be started every week, but there are some that aren’t always in your lineup that deserve a good long look in the coming seven games. As a very left-hand heavy lineup, the RHB often go overlooked unless you’re speaking of the switch-hitting Teixiera or Beltran. This coming week is their chance to shine, however, as they face three LHP and Chris Tillman (who is a reverse-split pitcher). Believe it or not, not everyone owns A-Rod yet, which is silly since he’s producing right in the middle of a very potent lineup. It’s hard to tell how much of the stats are as legitimate as they seem due to all of his baggage, but he does have a career .395 wOBA and .255 ISO (splits are slightly favored against LHP). My favorite streaming option on the Yanks this week is Chris Young. He’s left a sour taste in many of our mouths over the years (particularly with the Mets), but he’s flourishing in his part-time role with the Yankees. In his career, Young has a career .363 wOBA, .214 ISO, and 11.8% HR/FB% against LHP, and if the Yankees play the platoons right, Young should be guaranteed at least four starts this week. I know it’s not ideal, but if you have the roster space his upside can’t be argued with.
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Jamie is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. Be sure to check back next Sunday for his Weekly Planner. For questions and answers, find him on Twitter @jac3600.
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