Michael Florio discusses what’s going on with Stephen Strasburg.

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You may not think this is going out on a limb, but Stephen Strasburg is not a Number 1 Starting Pitcher. No, I don’t mean so far this season, I mean going forward the rest of this year and next year.

Year in and year out fantasy baseball rankers put Strasburg in the top 10, myself included, mostly off of hype and potential than actual results.

Strasburg came into 2015 coming off his best season yet, in which he pitched to a 3.14 ERA, with a 10.13 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, and a 14-11 record. Those numbers are great, and scream out the potential to be an elite pitcher, especially since he showed signs of growth. His strikeouts had jumped, his walks were at a low, and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), both sat below his ERA at 2.94 and 2.56, respectively. His issues with the long ball seemed a bit like an anomaly and his BABIP showed room for improvement heading into this year.

It is the reason I ranked him as a top eight starting pitcher.

However, instead of improving on those numbers, or even remaining the same, which plenty of people would gladly take, he took a step back. There are several red flags with Strasburg, specifically his walks have increased again, now up to 2.66 BB/9, similar to his 2012 and 2013 rates. His strikeouts have dropped to 9.30 K/9, which isn’t bad at all, but is below his career norm.

He has not been as bad as advertised as his ERA currently sits at 5.98, while his 3.44 FIP and 3.63 xFIP indicates he’s had some bad luck. That is backed up by his .389 BABIP, which is sure to regress, and an unluckily low 60.6 percent Left On Base (LOB) rate. But even if those numbers were to correct, would you consider a pitcher with an ERA around 3.50 to be elite? I think not.

However, the only red flags are not just with his strikeouts and walks. He has been hit hard this year, with his line drive rate jumping to 26.5 percent, the highest mark in his career. Despite giving up an increased amount of fly balls and line drives, his HR/FB rate is at a career low, which if it were to normalize could lead to more balls leaving the park.

There is also a concern with his velocity. Strasburg’s fastball velocity is on par with last year, but is a mile per hour slower than years past and two MPH slower than before Tommy John surgery. He is still throwing his slider, but three miles per hour faster than last year.

The biggest factor that sticks out is Strasburg’s best rated pitches, according to Fangraphs, has always been his curveball and change up. With a zero score being an average pitch, and anything negative being below average and anything positive being above average, Strasburg’s curveball currently rates at a -3.9, after rating at a 3.6 in 2014, and 13.2 in 2013. His changeup currently sits at a -1.1 after being a fantastic 13.7 in 2013 and 8.7 in 2013. These pitches which are usually a strength of his, have hurt him. Add in that his fastball is below a -3 for a second straight year and his slider is a -2 for a second straight year.

All of this comes into play by seeing that Strasburg has thrown his four-seam fastball nearly 18 percent more of the time than in 2014 and throwing his changeup five percent less than last year. This has hurt Strasburg, and perhaps his secondary pitches being less effective this year is why he is throwing the fastball more.

Due to throwing his fastball more often, he is pitching to more contact. His Swinging Strike Percent (SwStr%) is well below his career norm, sitting at a career low of 7.3 percent, a rate well below league average.

Strasburg will have to trust his secondary pitches more often, but if they prove to be ineffective, it could be a rough 2015 for him. Some speculate that he is pitching hurt, which could be the case, leading to less movement on those pitches.

What it all comes down to is Strasburg is a good buy low candidate, and can be a potential top 20 starting pitcher going forward, but I wouldn’t bet on him being elite. Add in the fact that even at his best he has been known to have outings that just leave fantasy owners scratching their heads. For that reason, you won’t see me rank him in the top-10 next season. In fact, if you do, make sure to send me this link!

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Michael is a Staff Writer for RotoExperts. If you have any Fantasy questions make sure to follow him on Twitter @MichaelFFlorio.

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