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Fantasy Baseball Daily Update: 6/29/15

Steven Matz did it with his arm and his bat in his major league debut

Steven Matz did it with his arm and his bat in his major league debut

The prevailing theme of the young season has been outstanding pitching, and the Sunday slate had no shortage of it. Three of the top pitchers coming into 2015 were on display in Sunday’s schedule, each pitching to their ace standards. Although there were other great performances, this daily update for June 29, 2015 will begin with a young pitcher’s multi-talented debut in New Y0rk.

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Recap

Steven Matz’s bat and arm spark Mets
Matz was just called up, and he proceeded to fire 7 2/3 innings against the Reds in his MLB debut, allowing two earned runs on five hits while walking three batters and striking out six. His MLB career was off to a poor start with Brandon Phillips hitting a home run to lead off the game, but the only other run that Matz allowed was on Todd Frazier’s 25th home run. Equally impressive in Matz’s debut was his 3-for-3 performance at the plate, where Matz had a double and four RBI in the 7-2 Mets’ victory. This outstanding hitting performance is not a fluke for Matz, who hit .304 with three RBI in Triple-A this season. In a hitter-friendly ballpark in Las Vegas and a league in the Triple-A’s Pacific Coast League that fosters power hitting, Matz had a 2.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 1.73 ground ball to fly ball ratio. The local New Yorker also averaged 9.37 strikeouts per nine in Triple-A and had a 3.03 K:BB ratio. Matz may not be an immediate add, but he is a player to keep an eye on in his next start on Sunday against the Dodgers. If Matz is able to put up another strong outing against a playoff-caliber team like the Dodgers, he would be a must-add player. The left-hander is already a huge part of dynasty league teams.

Collin McHugh fires Astros past Yankees
McHugh pitched eight innings, allowing only one run on two hits and two walks to earn his ninth win of the season as the Astros beat the Yankees 3-1 on Sunday. McHugh struck out eight batters and now has six or more strikeouts in each of his past three starts. He finished June with a 6.00 ERA, but had three straight quality starts to cap the month, pitching eight innings in each of his past two starts. McHugh has a 4.51 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 3.5 K:BB this season, becoming a fantasy relevant pitcher with his nine wins. The 28-year-old right-hander has shown a solid walk rate, only 2.12 per nine, but batters are hitting .269 off of him. His 2.92 ERA and 3-0 record in April made his stock soar, but he has now posted back-to-back months with an ERA of 5.00 or greater, as he had a 5.08 ERA in May. Advanced statistics are kind to McHugh, as he has a 4.21 FIP and 3.98 xFIP because of a 72.1% strand rate and .319 batting average on balls in play. McHugh has allowed 30.2% hard hit balls this season, but has a career-high 44.4% ground ball rate.

Felix Hernandez nearly flawless against Angels
Continuing his trend of up and down performance, Hernandez was dominant in six shutout innings on Sunday, allowing only one hit and three walks while striking out eight batters. He was only credited with a no-decision against the Angels on Sunday after his bullpen let him down, and the Angels ultimately won 3-2. The eight strikeouts were the most of the month of June for Hernandez, who finishes the month with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Hernandez allowed four runs or more in three of his six starts of June, but allowed one run or fewer in the other three starts of the month. Hernandez has a strong 3.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP for the season and a 3.23 K:BB ratio, maintaining his status as a top-10 SP. Hernandez has a solid 8.73 strikeouts per nine innings and posted a 2.00 ERA in May and 1.82 ERA in April before his bumpy June. If this down month is a likely outlier for his normally dominant production, Hernandez will continue to be a SP1 and top-five SP.

Zack Greinke dominant for Dodgers
Greinke pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins on Sunday afternoon, allowing only four hits and one walk while striking out six batters for his sixth win of the season. Greinke now has three straight scoreless starts for the Dodgers and is a top-five SP this season, posting a MLB-best 1.58 ERA. The only downfall for Greinke has been his lack of wins, as he has seven no-decisions in his past 10 starts, and the win on Sunday is his only in June. Greinke finished the month with a 2.14 ERA and 6.00 K:BB, while not walking more than two batters in his last 10 starts. The 31-year-old has been a stabilizing force with Clayton Kershaw performing poorly by his standards. The right-hander has struck out five or more batters in each of his past five starts. There has only been one start this season where Greinke has allowed more than two earned runs. There are few pitchers in baseball that have been more reliable this season.

Stephen Strasburg regains his ace status for Nationals against Phillies
After pitching five scoreless innings in his first start off the disabled list, Strasburg stretched himself out in his second start, allowing two earned runs in seven innings for his fifth win of the season. Strasburg allowed only four hits and one walk to the Phillies and struck out a season-high nine batters. He has not allowed more than two walks in any of his past 10 starts and averages 9.41 strikeouts per nine this season in 57 1/3 innings pitched. His ERA is still unsightly at 5.49, with his WHIP sitting at 1.53, and batters have hit .298 off of the Nationals’ ace. Even with the poor start to the season, the fact that Strasburg has seen his velocity return to 96 miles per hour or better on his fastball and that he has allowed two earned runs in 12 innings since returning from the disabled listed makes him one of the best buy-low candidates if he is available. Advanced statistics are very kind to Strasburg, who is a SP2 for the remainder of the season.

What to watch for

The Monday slate is dominated by surprising pitchers with outstanding starts to the season. Veterans Joe Blanton, Mike Pelfrey, and Clay Buchholz have been solid this season and start for their respective teams tonight. Young arms with star potential, Nathan Karns and Lance McCullers, have also had solid seasons in their first campaigns for the Rays and Astros and look to continue their success Monday.

Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @thezman2010.

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