What can we expect from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this season?
Here’s the latest in our team preview series, a look at the 2015 Green Bay Packers.
The Green Bay Packers project to be a fantasy football goldmine in 2015. Mike McCarthy and new playcaller Tom Clements return all eleven starters and even added a few gadgets in the draft. Even with a conservative guess, the Packers should possess four players within the top 10 at their respective position.
It all starts up at front with the big uglies. Once the Achilles’ heal of the team, the Packers now sport one of the top units in the NFL. David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, Corey Linsley, T.J. Lang, and Bryan Bulaga kept Aaron Rodgers upright (even through Rodgers’ nagging calf injury late in the season) and are as much of a reason for the resurgence of the running game as Eddie Lacy. The line also sports depth, as Dan Barclay and J.C. Tretter can step in at nearly any position across the line. Plus they can dance.
Obviously the success and explosiveness of the Green Bay offense rests on the shoulders of defending NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. Some NFL writers are rushing to anoint Andrew Luck as the top fantasy QB for ’15. For me, Rodgers is the sole member of Tier 1, end of story. He is in the absolute prime of his career and is surrounded by a supporting cast that rivals his unbelievable 2011 campaign. Sixteen games of Rodgers should net a fantasy owner over 40 TDs and 4,000 yards with a few rushing TDs sprinkled in. Should Rodgers miss a few games, cheesehead fan favorite Scott Tolzien projects to serve as the No. 2 QB after the departure of Matt Flynn. While he is not worth a roster spot in nearly any fantasy format, he could at least hold up the productivity of the Packers WR corps should #12 go down judging by his big 2014 preseason.
The emergence of Lacy two years ago has added a new dimension, which when clicking, has made the Packers’ offense near unstoppable. Lacy’s in-your-face running style has netted the Packers a 1,000 yard runner the past two seasons and has led several fantasy experts to rank him as the No. 1 overall fantasy player heading into 2015 after the Le’Veon Bell suspension. I am not as bullish on Lacy’s viability as the first-overall pick. Fantasy owners should be cautious about adding any RB in such a pass-happy offense. Mike McCarthy has shown tendencies to completely abandon the running game in the past due to deficits or the hot hand of Rodgers. Even more alarming for fantasy owners should be Lacy’s concussion history. While he has only missed 1.5 games in his first two years in the league, he is already on his third concussion. Potentially related to the concussions, Lacy has stumbled to slow fantasy starts in his first two seasons. While under no circumstances am I suggesting that Lacy is not a top five or even a top three fantasy RB, fantasy owners need to be aware of what they are getting. They are not getting a fantasy superstar in the likes of 2013 Jamaal Charles, (Lacy only eclipsed 100 yards three times last year) but are instead receiving a solid 12-15 points a week as a byproduct of the Packers’ juggernaut passing game. Lacy should receive countless red zone opportunities and probably will be one of the most consistent fantasy RBs in football. Lacy is also a much better pass catcher than you’d think a RB of his build would be. He serves as the primary check down WR for Rodgers (due to the lack of consistent play out of the TE position) and has shown explosiveness in the screen game.
Veteran James Starks will again serve as the primary backup to Lacy. He is a must-own handcuff for any Lacy owner, as well as a potential contributor in deeper leagues. Starks is also entering a contract year, which in theory should boost his productivity. The No. 3 spot is up for grabs between undrafted free agents John Crockett, Rajion Neal, and Alonzo Harris.
Former GM Ron Wolf has said one of his biggest regrets as general manager was not providing Brett Favre with enough talented WRs during his prime. That is certainly not an issue for Aaron Rodgers. Ted Thompson has kept the WR shelves well-stocked for Rodgers. This year’s corps may compete with the epic 2011 group of Jennings, Driver, Nelson, Jones, and Finley.
The return of Randall Cobb assures the Packers’ top two WRs will be as good as any tandem in football. Both Jordy Nelson and Cobb figure to be off fantasy board in the early rounds as top 10 WRs. It may be hard for Nelson to repeat his 1500 yd/13 TD season, but I think you can expect at least 1100 yards and 8 TDs from each of Nelson and Cobb.
Davante Adams is the player fantasy owners are keeping their eyes on as a breakout candidate heading into 2015. Rodgers is definitely excited about his ability. To see what he could accomplish, look at James Jones’ numbers from his time in Green Bay. However, there is a definite ceiling in his potential due to Nelson and Cobb’s position ahead of him. If one of those players went down with an injury, Adams could surge to a solid No. 2 fantasy WR. Adams should be drafted in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts.
Rounding out the WR corps are rookie Ty Montgomery, and second-year players Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis. Montgomery is intriguing and has grown comparisons to a Cobb/Percy Harvin hybrid. Montgomery’s entry should spell the end of Cobb’s kick and punt return games (a plus for Cobb’s durability). McCarthy has also hinted that Montgomery could also be used as running back. We’ve seen Cobb line up in the backfield from time to time as well. Keep an eye on Montgomery in training camp and the preseason, but he’s still probably beyond the cusp of draftability at this point.
There was a lot of hype surrounding Wisconsin-native Abbrederis in training camp before he suffered a season ending ACL injury. He should battle Montgomery for the #4 WR spot. The other WR, Janis, is also a fan favorite. The speedster had a big 2014 preseason, but is still pretty raw. Still, it speaks volumes that the Packers brass kept the seventh-round pick on the 53-man roster all season despite only recording a pair of receptions.
The only spot on the offense that can be called a weakness is tight end. The Packers have struggled to replace Jermichael Finley since his career-ending neck injury in 2013. However, the team believes they have their man in Richard Rodgers. While he may not have the explosiveness of Finley, he has amazing hands. Rodgers is one of my top sleepers of 2015 and should be looked at in the late rounds of drafts.
Trevor Spranger is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Trevor, you can check out his archive or follow him @tspranger.
