Kyle Soppe talks Gio Gonzalez and why you should target him now.
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As of June 13th, the Nationals lefty ranks outside of the top 100 for the season. No, not the top 100 overall players, the top 100 starting pitchers! Two-thirds of his starts have included four walks or four earned runs allowed, already matching the number of such starts he had in all of 2014.
Calling him a “buy-low” at this point would be a disservice to all “buy-low” options, as you may not even have to buy him, rather claim him
Do it. Do it now.
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There are only two pitchers in all of baseball (Sonny Gray and Dallas Keuchel) that have both a lower FIP and a lower Hard% than Gonzalez, two signs that point to increased fantasy value sooner rather than later. Another reason to be optimistic is not just the strength of contact being made against the Nats southpaw, but the type. This is the first season of his big league career in which the majority of at-bats against him have resulted in ground balls (56.6 percent), typically something that would result in easy outs and rally killing double plays. That, however, hasn’t been the case in 2015, as his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is 67 points above his career norm, therefore inflating his counting numbers and frustrating fantasy owners. The “unlucky” BABIP has resulted in his lowest strand rate since 2009 and an O-Contact% that is uncharacteristically high.
You could choose to buy the ugly numbers that he has produced this season, but you could also choose to drive a car with one eye closed. Open both eyes and look at the whole statistical picture and you’ll understand why Gonzalez is still the same pitcher he always has been and maybe even better. His pitching repertoire, in terms of velocity and pitch selection, is nearly identical to what he used last season when he finished as the 60th ranked starting pitcher on ESPN’s player rater despite missing five starts. He’s not old enough to factor in decline and he still pitches in the weak hitting NL East: be patient, his latest start against the Yankees was a good start and could prove to be the type of confidence builder he needs to string together a solid rest of 2015. I’ve got him penciled in as a SP3 for the remainder of the season, but the price required to acquire him will be nowhere in that neighborhood.
I’ll leave you with a pair of “SOPtistics”: statistical oddities that may surprise you:
- The majority of his starts (58.3 percent to be exact) have been of the “quality” version this season.
- His batting average against this season in 0-1 counts is higher than his slugging percentage against in such situations last season. Do you really think that continues?
Send Gio Gonzalez (or any other) trade questions my way and I’ll offer my two cents, but if you’re getting GG, I’m going to suggest pulling the trigger.
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Kyle is a staff writer for RotoExperts. You can follow him on Twitter @unSOPable23.
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