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Rolling the Dice on Brian Quick

DFC-LogoJosh Shepardson is a fan of Brian Quick as a cheap dice roll with upside.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Josh head to Daily Fantasy Cafe.

I tend to be risk averse in the early rounds of snake drafts and the big dollar portion of auctions, and instead I like to take my calculated risks in the middle-to-late rounds or when the big ticket items have been auctioned off. Having said that, Brian Quick fits the mold of the type of player who I’m willing to roll the dice on. He currently ranks 56th at wide receiver in standard scoring leagues, according to our expert consensus rankings here at FantasyPros. That puts him in the WR5 range with an ADP of 192.0. As I said, he fits the bill of a mid- to late-round dice roll. And unlike some of the gambles around him, he’s flashed big production in the league.

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Last year, the 2012 second round pick’s season ended after seven games due to a torn rotator cuff and separated shoulder suffered in late October. According to an article by Nick Wagoner of ESPN, while there is no firm timetable on his return, Quick is making progress and the hope is that he’ll be ready by training camp. The Appalachian State product was a raw project when he was selected with the 33rd pick in the 2012 draft, and his first two years in the league illustrated just how much work he needed as he tallied only 29 receptions for 458 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Still, at 6-foot-3 and 218 pounds with a respectable 4.55 40-yard dash time at the NFL Draft Combine, it was easy to understand why the club would take on a project like Quick. He began to turn the corner last year.

Last year, Quick opened the season with back-to-back games of seven catches and totaled 99 yards receiving in week one and 74 in week two. He failed to eclipse 70 yards in week three and had only two grabs, but he made the most of them rattling off 62 yards and hauling in a touchdown grab. His most productive game came in his fourth contest when he snagged five passes for 87 yards and two touchdowns. After that, he largely disappeared before the injury totaling just four receptions for 53 yards receiving and no touchdowns in his last three games played. That said, his first four games are representative of the type of big play receiver who can reel in touchdown grabs Quick is capable of blossoming into.

Remember, he was working with rubbish at quarterback after Sam Bradford suffered a season-ending ACL tear in the preseason. Austin Davis and Shaun Hill were left to run the team, and neither is a starting caliber NFL signal caller. Whether you buy into Nick Foles‘ excellent 2013 season or think he showed his true colors last year, he’s a sizable improvement over the men hucking the pigskin to Quick last season.

A healthy Quick has one of the clearer paths to looks and targets in the league, as Kenny Britt is the best returning receiver for the Rams. Britt led the team in receiving yards with 748 and was second on the club in targets (84) and receptions (48), and tied for second in touchdown grabs (three). The leader in receptions and targets was the wildly inconsistent Jared Cook with 52 and 98, respectively. In other words, he’s not battling a Jerry Rice or Randy Moss for work in the passing game, and if he’s able to gel with Foles quickly, he could easily lead the club in every receiving category.

Back to Quick’s on-field skills, though, and they’re intriguing. Quick’s injury would require thresholds to be completely abandoned for him to qualify for any ranks in the advanced stats categories at Pro Football Focus. So instead of muddying things with players who tallied one reception, his ranks that I discuss will be compared to players who received 25% of their team’s targets. Had Quick reached that threshold, his WR Rating of 116.4 at Pro Football Focus would have tied DeSean Jackson for the 13th best mark. One of my favorite stats to look at on Pro Football Focus is yards per route run (YPRR). Basically, it measures receiver efficiency. Volume is great if you can get it, but guys who tally an efficient YPRR have a chance to be monsters if their volume increases and merely good if they don’t get a big uptick in usage. Quick posted a 1.92 YPRR, and that mark would have tied Andre Johnson for the 24th best among receivers who received 25% or more of their team’s targets. It warrants repeating, too, as he did all of this with Davis and Hill throwing him passes.

I expect Quick’s ADP and expert consensus rank to rise as he nears full medical clearance and a clearer timetable is presented. Still, it’s low enough now that even a modest increase to both will keep him in play as a low risk, high reward selection. When you’re casting a late-round dart at the dart board or looking to grab a player for a few bucks late in your auction, keep Quick on your list of players to gamble on.

Josh is a writer for Daily Fantasy Cafe. You can follow him on Twitter @BChad50.


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