Ryan Raburn is the perfect reason why DFS players shouldn’t solely rely on left-handed/right-handed splits to determine value

FantasyPros has put together a glossary of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) terms for readers to reference. More and more players are taking part in DFS contests. We’re providing the glossary so that you can easily reference terms and strategies as you get started playing DFS. Below we’ll take a look at MLB research techniques.

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Daily Fantasy Sports have become very popular, and signs point to its reach continuing to increase. As more and more fantasy owners enter this spectrum, merely looking at basic statistics will no longer suffice if you are looking to get the edge over the general public. Season long fantasy football is a great example as everyone has a fundamental understanding of what to look for and how to use that information. With baseball generally being driven by advanced statistics, it only makes sense to pick up on these different methods of evaluating players and how to incorporate them into your daily fantasy baseball research.

There is not one particular statistic that a user can point to that overrules all of the other statistics, but we can trust advanced statistics because baseball is so binary in nature. The basic batter/pitcher relationship never changes, so we tend to see the same standardized events happen on a consistent basis. Using split statistics can help you become a better daily fantasy sports player and in turn, a more profitable one.

In an ideal situation, you should target hitters and pitchers who have as many splits in their favor. Keep in mind that it is crucial not to infer too much from a small sample size as variance becomes introduced. If you haven’t figured out what variance is yet in your gameplay, you will soon and it is your enemy.

Using left-handed/right-handed splits is the best place to start your research. But be careful not to rely solely on this statistic alone. Ryan Raburn is a fantastic example. Typically Raburn garners a positive lineup spot when the Indians face a left-handed pitcher, and he usually comes with a soft salary. While this can be appealing for roster construction, know that a few risks will likely exist.

First of all, if he’s near-minimum price, his ownership levels may be driven up, which doesn’t help you in tournament play. The most significant risk here is the likelihood of Raburn being pinch-hit for as the game rolls into the later innings. There’s a reason he doesn’t sit in the second spot of the batting order all the time. What happens if this game is in the fifth or sixth inning and a right-handed reliever comes into the game? Raburn could be looking at only two at-bats by that point of the game, and this did nothing to eliminate the number one enemy I listed earlier: variance. Any player can go 0-for-2 and still be a good hitter over the course of time because the variance is lessened, and the player’s skills have a better chance of determining success. If Mike Trout struggles for a week or two, is he a bad hitter? Absolutely not, because history tells us that you can bank on him likely resting around a .300 average over the course of the season.

Targeting hitters who are positioned high in the lineup is an important thing to monitor as it can introduce upside for tournaments and in the Raburn situation, value for cash games. If a batter hits seventh or eighth in the order, value does not necessarily mean upside because he’s likely to see fewer at-bats than hitters higher in the order. I noted above that Ryan Raburn is probably a good value if a left-handed pitcher is on the mound. While this is a good strategy for cash game play, you’ve limited his upside for tournament play as the likelihood of him getting a full allotment of at-bats is small.

While hitting in the back of the order is not ideal, it is also not a death sentence for your cash game lineup. Let’s say you expect a decline in production from a leadoff man to a hitter late in the order of say 15-20 percent. Well, if the latter player costs 30 percent less, then that’s an opportunity for cash game value. It is important to note pricing on the site you use, as some sites overcompensate for hitters who are high in the batting order. The easiest way to spot value when targeting lineup order is finding an everyday player who suddenly moves up in the order.

In conclusion, fantasy baseball is governed very much by opportunity and you are doing yourself a disservice if you do not find a way to get as many of these opportunities in your favor. The best daily fantasy sports players accumulate small advantages over the field, and this is the best way to eliminate variance and thus, risk in your gameplay.

Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.