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Evaluating 3 Sophomore Running Backs

Evaluating 3 Sophomore Running Backs

DFC-LogoJosh Shepardson discusses a trio of sophomore running backs who have stirred up varying degrees of interest entering 2015.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Josh head to Daily Fantasy Cafe.

A trio of running backs went in the second round of last year’s draft, and those three backs enter this season with considerably different expectations. Jeremy Hill was the most productive back of the three and checks in ranked 10th by the FantasyPros expert consensus at running back in standard scoring leagues. He’s followed by 18th ranked Carlos Hyde. The lowest ranked of the trio is Bishop Sankey, ranking 37th. What can reasonably be expected of these backs in their sophomore campaigns and what should gamers make of their expert consensus rankings (ECR)?

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Jeremy Hill (RB – CIN)
Hill looks to be fairly ranked, if not a couple places too low. He ranked eighth among all backs in rushing yards with 1,124 and tied for third in rushing touchdowns with nine. At 6-foot-1 and 238 pounds, he’s certainly built like a bell cow, and he was very good after contact. His 2.8 yards after contact per attempt (YCo/Att) ranked tied for fifth among backs who played 25% of their team’s snaps, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Though he wasn’t even his own team’s primary pass catching back, Hill didn’t embarrass himself as he nabbed 27 receptions for 215 yards receiving. Giovani Bernard’s mediocre second season opened the door to Hill taking over the lion’s share of snaps down the stretch, with Hill playing 163 snaps to Bernard’s 117 snaps in the final four games of the regular season. Bernard did best him in snaps by a wide margin in the Wild Card game (41 snaps to 21), but that was likely due to the Bengals playing catch up. Bernard has value to the Bengals, but he’s little more than a change-of-pace and pass catching complement to Hill. Another 1,000-plus yard rushing effort should be in order for Hill this season as well as plenty of touchdowns since the bigger back will get the bulk of the goal-line carries.

Carlos Hyde (RB – SF)
Hyde spent his rookie season playing second fiddle to the since departed Frank Gore, and now he’ll be the lead back with free-agent addition Reggie Bush serving as his pass catching and change-of-pace counterpart. Gamers likely don’t need to be overly concerned with Bush stealing too much work, and his FantasyPros ranking by the experts reflects that. As the 18th ranked back, there is room for Hyde to provide surplus value on his draft day cost. The Ohio State product is a big bruising back who totaled 333 yards rushing on 83 attempts while reaching pay dirt four times on the ground. He’s a handful for defenders as he stands 6-foot tall and weighs 230 pounds. His hard charging running style resulted in a whopping 2.8 YCo/Att, good for fifth with fellow second-year back Hill, as well as a couple other guys you might be familiar with, Arian Foster and Eddie Lacy. Hyde is a limited receiver with just 12 catches for 68 receiving yards after year one, and he doesn’t project to get a huge increase in work in that capacity this year, making him a better target in standard scoring or half-point per reception leagues than in full-point PPR formats. With many teams going to full-blown running-back-by-committee situations, Hyde is a throwback type of runner who should be in line for a heavy workload of upwards of 250-plus carries. For comparisons sake, Gore carried the ball 255 times last year, a mark well within reach of Hyde. The expert consensus ranks Hyde 38th among all players in standard scoring leagues, placing him squarely in the back end of the third or top of the fourth round discussion in 12-team leagues. He’s an excellent target for owners who spend their early picks on wide receiver or perhaps spring for a signal caller or Rob Gronkowski.

Bishop Sankey (RB – TEN)
Sankey is the cheapest of the second-year backs, and for good reason. He was less productive than Hill and was less efficient than Hyde. Sankey carried the ball 152 times for 575 yards rushing and just two rushing touchdowns. He did, however, do a decent job of avoiding tacklers and churning out yards after contact. The 29 missed tackles Sankey forced as a runner ranked tied for 17th, and his 2.5 YCo/Att ranked tied for 16th. The small gap in his YCo/Att and yards-per-carry (3.8) is probably a good indicator he wasn’t getting much running room. The addition of dual-threat quarterback Marcus Mariota could change that. Sankey will have competition for touches this year, though, as the team spent a fifth-round pick on running back David Cobb. The Titans are unlikely to have turned the page completely from their 2014 second-round pick, but the leash is probably short. Sankey’s case isn’t aided by his terrible blocking skills, and that was part of the reason he wasn’t the full-time back out of the gate last year. Still, at the cost of a mid-round pick, Sankey makes for an intriguing bench running back option. If he flops, he won’t derail a team’s championship prospects, but he could emerge as a true lead back and easily pay off the minimal investment required to secure his services.

Josh is a writer for Daily Fantasy Cafe. You can follow him on Twitter @BChad50.


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