Johnny Cueto was officially acquired by the Kansas City Royals on Sunday in what will likely be one of the bigger moves impact-wise as the trade deadline approaches. Cueto will immediately become Kansas City’s ace in what will amount to a rental as the Royals look to get back to the World Series, where they were one swing away from a championship while having no clear ace. The Royals certainly had to give up quite a bit considering there will be no compensation pick and the likelihood that Cueto will not re-sign in the offseason is high. Still, it was a move that Kansas City felt they needed to make.
There are many contextual factors at play here from the team’s standpoint, but let’s look at the fantasy impact for Cueto himself. While a shift from the National League to the American League is simply assumed as not good for a starting pitcher, what exactly is at stake here?
First of all, the National League strikeout rate is 20.6%, while the American League strikeout rate is 19.8%. Toss in a designated hitter to face versus a pitcher in National League play, and you likely have a few extra outs that are a bit tougher to register. Great American Ballpark is widely pegged in the fantasy community as being a hitter’s haven, but quite frankly looking at park factors from 2014, the only boon for hitters in Cincinnati are home runs. Kauffmann Stadium rates nearly even for singles and doubles, but there is a big jump in favor of hitters at Kauffman Stadium in terms of triples. Strikeouts are also inflated at Great American Ballpark when compared to Kauffman Stadium. With these factors in mind, we should likely expect a dip in strikeout rate as Cueto will be facing a designated hitter in a league that has struck out less overall than his old National League mates.
The top ranked Kansas City bullpen is certainly a strength, maybe the strength, of this team and that will likely improve Cueto’s chances of holding onto wins. The Cincinnati bullpen was rough outside of Aroldis Chapman, ranking in the bottom third overall. Run support was also an issue for Cueto this season in his time with the Reds, as they scored 3.42 runs per game in his starts (compared to 4.0 runs per game overall). In contrast, the Royals rank ninth in the American League, with 4.32 runs per game.
To summarize, this move likely benefits the team more so than Cueto from a fantasy standpoint. The move to the American League will not do him any favors and in fact his strikeouts could suffer. The boost here is likely marginal at best, short of a likely increase in win probability. If you own Cueto, it’s tough to justify making a reactional move, as I see this as more of a neutral overall scenario unfolding rather than a big swing in either direction.
Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.