Should you be scared off by Matt Forte’s career touches?

In this piece I demonstrate the power of the Draft Wizard to assist you in your mock drafts. Also, as part of that process I’ll discuss my strategy prior to the mock draft and rationalization behind each pick. It’s important to note the draft is a 12-team standard scoring league with 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 Flex/1 K/ 1 D/ST & 6 players on the bench. Let’s get started!

Strategy

Before going through and analyzing my thought process on a pick-by-pick basis, I will provide some background on work I did prior to this mock draft. First, using the Draft Wizard, I put “Targets” on those RBs who have had fewer than 900 total career touches and also are currently positioned to be an every-down back this season.

I recently did research showcasing the higher likelihood of RB1 production for RBs who have yet to cross the 900 career touch threshold. In fact, over the past seven seasons 60% of RBs that produced RB1 numbers had fewer than 900 total career touches (receptions and rushing attempts) to their name prior to the start of the season. RBs with 901 – 1800 total career touches made up 30% of the RB1 producers and only 10% of RBs who produced RB1 numbers had 1800+ career total touches heading into the season. 

The every-down concept is very logical, as it provides RBs the likelihood to get the ball much more often. It is also backed by data. Of the 35 RBs who finished in the top five in scoring at the RB position over the past seven seasons, only one of the 35 RBs wasn’t an every-down back. It was Michael Turner in 2008. He caught only seven receptions on the season, ceding most of the third-down work to Jerious Norwood.

From a WR stand point, I created tiers for the first twenty WRs. This was all done in Draft Wizard by clicking on their “Edit Rankings” for WRs. Projecting exact stats is very difficult, which is why I am a big believer in creating tiers, especially for WRs. I also shifted around rankings for a few players I am a little higher on than the experts.

Any shifting I did to the rankings I had a case for, based on statistical evidence. I recommend you do the same before casually shifting the rankings of the experts. Outside of the top 20 WRs I had tiered my strategy was to find receivers that play with top QBs or were the best available along with a catalyst for production to outweigh where I am selecting them.

As far as TEs go, I have previously written about my bearishness on Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski at their current prices. The key words here being “at their current prices.” Gronk and Graham are currently ranked 7^th and 32^nd overall, respectively. Between Brady’s suspension and Graham moving to a run-centric offense, I can’t justify these rankings. Because of this, I put both of these players on my “avoid” list, another great feature of Draft Wizard.

I left the other TEs untouched, with the strategy of focusing on best available TE versus my needs at other positions. Similar to WRs, if all else is equal from a talent standpoint, I am much more likely to take the player with the elite QB. Not rocket science, but something to keep in mind during your draft.

Last, but not least, it is time to address the QB position. It’s hard for me to rationalize drafting one of the top QBs when Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford enter the season ranked 8^th, 10^th and 11^th. I plan to sit back and happily take one of those three. I think they all have a shot at top-five production (Brady after his suspension).

For defense/special teams and kicker, I am of the belief that it is best to wait until the final two rounds to make the selections. I will have DEF/ST and K I like more than others, but wouldn’t recommend taking any before the last two rounds of your draft.

Mock Draft

Round 1 – C.J. Anderson

I was randomly assigned the 10^th overall pick. When examining my Tier 1 WRs, I quickly realized I would be selecting a RB with this selection. In my view, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, Jordy Nelson and A.J. Green all could make a case for top WR honors this season. With eight players in that first tier and only Antonio Brown and Julio Jones off the board, there was no value in me selecting a WR.

Next, I checked my RB board based on the criteria I mentioned above. While Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy were available and are every-down RBs, their career touch data concerned me. Forte has 2,260 total touches heading into this season and McCoy sits at 1,761 career touches. Scary numbers when one considers the past difficulty players with 1800+ touches have had producing RB1 numbers.

My target for the selection then became C.J. Anderson. Anderson not only has 220 career total touches heading into this season, but also was the top producing fantasy RB in the second half of the 2014 fantasy campaign. With the fantasy RB-friendly Gary Kubiak in town and Anderson appearing to have a strong grip on a three-down role, the sky is the limit for Anderson in 2015.

Round 2 – Justin Forsett

I’m sure this pick will surprise people, but it shouldn’t. With Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas now off the board, there were four more WRs I deemed to be available in my “Tier 1” group. Because I have the 10^th pick and am now selecting 15^th, Draft Wizard made me aware there will be 18 picks before my next selection. This made it clear, my last chance to take a WR in my “Tier 1” category was now.

What prevented me from doing so was how thin the RB position became for the criteria I look for in my RBs. For RBs with fewer than 900 total career touches and projected every-down workloads, the supply was minimal. After Forsett, Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray, Andre Ellington, T.J. Yeldon and Todd Gurley were next to fit the bill. While each of those backs have potential, none have performed to a level worthy of a second-round selection.

Forsett, on the other hand, is a different story. Despite turning 30 this season, he has minimal wear on his tires and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Forsett was the 8^th best RB in 2014 and proved he can handle a heavy workload, playing on over 60% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps. While he did lose Kubiak, Marc Trestman comes to town, which should increase his reception target number in 2015, playing to Forsett’s strength as a pass catcher.

Ultimately, this selection came down to me feeling more comfortable with some of the WRs who should be available in the third and fourth round as opposed to the RBs that will be there. By looking 18 picks out, I could tell that it was likely a few of my “Tier 2” players should be available. With Forsett’s Fantasy Pros ECR of 28, he was likely to be gone.

Round 3 – DeAndre Hopkins

After a run on RBs prior to my third-round pick, I was happy to select a WR. As I expected, three down RBs with low career touches and proven production would have been hard to find come my selection. Also, all of my Tier 1 WRs were now off the board, which wasn’t a shock. Fortunately, a few of my Tier 2 WRs were still available.

Despite an incredible 2^nd year, DeAndre Hopkins still isn’t getting the credit he deserves. In 2014 he finished 15^th for WRs, barely missing WR1 production. This is all while dealing with poor QB play and being the second receiving option on his team. Because I don’t see the QB play getting any worse this year, and the fact that Andre Johnson is now a Colt, this season is setting up for a breakout year for Hopkins.

If Hopkins’ targets increase to around Andre Johnson’s three-year target average of 164 and Hopkins is able to maintain his efficiency from his first two seasons, he is likely to finish in the top 10 at the WR position this year. I am very happy to get him in the third round as the 13^th WR off the board.

Round 4 – Brandin Cooks

There probably aren’t too many people higher on Cooks this season than I am. In PPR leagues, he is set to be absolute gold, but his outlook in standard formats is still sterling. I would argue that no WR had their situation improve more this offseason, with over 200 targets leaving with the departures of Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. The Saints did nothing to improve at WR in the NFL Draft and Cooks is playing with Drew Brees, who has been a top-six fantasy QB in each of the past nine seasons.

While I did not include Cooks in my Tier 1 category for WRs, he is firmly entrenched in my Tier 2. Even if the Saints run the ball more this season and get closer to a league average of 60% pass plays (63% in 2014), that is still 628 targets to go around in New Orleans. Historically, those in the top 10 in targets get between 27 – 30% of their team’s total targets. This would mean Cooks would get between 170 and 188 targets this season.

Based on Cooks’ 2014 reception per target of .76, yard per target of 7.86, TD per target of .04, you are looking at production in the range of 175 to 195 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. This would have put Cooks somewhere between the 8 – 13^th position for WRs in 2014. For the 16^th WR off of the board, this is production I would be very happy with.

Round 5 – Golden Tate

I was hoping that Martavius Bryant would fall here, but unfortunately he didn’t. Still, I am able to nab a WR I had in my Tier 3 listed and ranked 20^th overall for my personal WR rankings. While some may call Tate’s 2014 finish of 13^th at the WR position a fluke due to Calvin Johnson missing time with injury, it proved that you can count on WR1 production from Tate if Johnson does miss any time.

While Tate may be a low end WR2 if Johnson plays the entire season, taking him as the 25^th WR selected in my view was a steal, because of the added low-end WR1 production that comes with Tate if Johnson were to get nicked again in 2015. Tate’s ability is no fluke, and he is a solid player to have as the third WR on your fantasy team.

Round 6 – Travis Kelce

This pick was truly based on who I saw to be the best available. I had a team filled with two RBs and three WRs, so I had flexibility to take the best player on the board. Kelce’s ECR of 53 made me ecstatic to take him No. 63 overall.

In the only 80 targets he had last season Kelce was extremely efficient, posting 113.6 fantasy points, good for the No. 8 TE. With Anthony Fasano and his 36 targets no longer on the Chiefs, the stage is set for 100+ targets this season. A conservative increase of 20 targets would have put Kelce neck and neck with Greg Olsen in 2014 as the No. 4 TE, assuming Kelce maintained his efficiency.

Due to Kelce’s unique ability and clear path to targets, he has as good a chance as any TE to push Gronk for No. 1 TE honors in 2015. With a sixth-round price tag that is upside I will buy every day of the week.

Round 7 – Matthew Stafford

True to my initial strategy, I sat back and waited at the QB position. I decided to jump on board at this point, because I preferred Stafford to Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill. While Stafford had an awful 2014, finishing as the No. 17 QB, people quickly forget the success he had the prior three seasons.

From 2012 to 2014 Stafford was a top-10 producer at the QB position, finishing as high as 5^th in 2011. Stafford still plays with one of the best WRs in the game in Megatron and has one of the best No. 2 options in Tate. Stafford to me seems like a good bet for mean regression this season and provides value as the 10^th QB off the board.

Round 8 – Brandon LaFell

I can’t figure out why LaFell is getting absolutely no love in this year’s rankings. He finished 22^nd among WRs in 2014, five spots ahead of his teammate Julian Edelman, who is currently being drafted in the 4^th round. It just doesn’t add up, especially in standard scoring formats.

To have a shot at low-end WR2 production with the 87^th pick is absolutely crazy and the sort of inefficiency fantasy players dream of. Plus, while Brady is still currently slated for a four-game suspension, none of my starting WR-s bye weeks occur until Week 9.

Round 9 – Duke Johnson

My strategy with RBs in the late rounds is to take players that I think would produce RB1 numbers if the starter goes down. This is exactly the case for Johnson. Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines in football, but it wasn’t taken advantage of last year by Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. Johnson is already slated for third-down work and in my view Crowell’s mediocre performance in 2014 means he is a fumble or two away from getting delegated to the bench.

Round 10 – Ryan Mathews

The logic behind the Mathews pick is almost identical to Johnson. If Demarco Murray goes down, Mathews has tremendous upside and is a lock for RB1 production. He’s proven his ability in prior fantasy seasons and is running behind an Eagles’ offensive line that is still in the top quarter in the NFL, despite the release of Evan Mathis. Let’s hope Chip Kelly’s sports science program can keep Mathews healthy if he does get the opportunity.

Round 11 – Owen Daniels

Anyone who watched the last quarter of the Broncos’ season could easily see the lack of mustard Peyton Manning had on his throws. Combine this with Julius Thomas‘ production the past few seasons and Daniels turns into a 2015 sleeper at the TE position, poised for low-end TE1 production.

Round 12 – Pierre Garcon

Garcon was simply the best player available. How quickly fantasy players forget his finish of 13th of all WRs in 2013. While he was clearly a beneficiary of a Kyle Shanahan-friendly scheme, very friendly to the “X” receiver, Garcon is better than where I took him as the 51st WR off the board. I don’t expect a top 15 finish under Jay Gruden, but reversion to a mid-tier WR3 (28 to 32) seems very likely with the talent Garcon has flashed in past seasons.

Round 13 – Jay Cutler

Cutler always seems to be undervalued in fantasy football.Too many players consider him a bad fantasy option, because he isn’t considered a “good” QB. Cutler brings a lot of this on himself, making awful decisions at critical points in games. Fortunately in fantasy land an INT on the first play of the game makes no difference than the last.

Before his benching in Week 16 last season, Cutler was the No. 9 fantasy QB. To put it in perspective, he averaged only .74 points per game less than Tom Brady over his first 14 contests. Understanding the disconnect between fantasy and reality, I am happy to have Cutler as my backup to Stafford.

Round 14 – Knile Davis

Davis’ Week 5 stat line against Miami last season was 32 for 132 and 1 TD. RB1 production is in the cards for Davis if Jamaal Charles gets injured. Similar to my selection of Johnson and Mathews, I am looking for RBs that if given the starting job will get me RB1 production. Davis fits the bill perfectly.

Round 15 – Steven Hauschka

I would typically select a kicker after a defense, but with the defense/special teams I was hoping to select likely available in Round 16, I pulled the trigger on Hauschka. He has been a top-five fantasy kicker the past two seasons, converting on 89% of his kicks.

Also, playing for a productive offense makes his life much easier. While Jimmy Graham could make Seattle better in the red zone than the prior few seasons, Hauschka has proven to be one of the best kickers in football, which is why I expect continued success from him.

Round 16 – Philadelphia Eagles

While the TD production may drop for this unit in 2015, they are an extremely opportunistic bunch. In 2014 Chip Kelly invested significantly in his special teams with the free agent acquisitions of Darren Sproles, Chris Maragos and Bryan Braman. The investment paid off with the Eagles special teams scoring 7 return TDs, well above the next closest teams (Bill and Patriots) at 3.

The Eagles also know how to get to the QB. As a team they were 3rd in the league with 49 sacks. While a first place finish in D/ST will be hard to repeat, I wouldn’t bet against a top 5 finish. Even with five fewer TDs, the group would still be poised for a top 5 finish.

Conclusion

To view the complete analysis of the mock draft check out the following. Follow the ‘More Details’ link to find the full final draft board and team rosters.

Because of my unique draft strategy with my RBs, which led me to take C.J. Anderson and Justin Forsett before most experts would advise, it was no surprise to see the draft analyzer’s tough take on my team. I would argue I am going to where the puck is heading not where it has been.

The key is having a strategy, doing your research and sticking to it. It was encouraging to see the respect given to my bench by the draft analyzer report. My bench is projected to be the 2nd best, which is aligned with my strategy of selecting players who should provide top-end production if injuries occur.

Draft Wizard is a great tool to use for mock drafts. It allows you to practice for your real draft and provides you with a very detailed level of customization to execute your desired strategy. I highly recommend using it as you prepare for your 2015 fantasy drafts.

• Fantasy Football: 10-Team Standard Mock Draft Guide
• Fantasy Football: Two-QB Mock Draft Guide

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Michael Brusko is a correspondent for FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out fantasyalpha.com.