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Fantasy Outlook: Arian Foster

Fantasy Outlook: Arian Foster
Should Arian Foster's injury risk deter you from drafting him?

Should Arian Foster’s injury risk deter you from drafting him?

Many worried that Arian Foster would not be able to return to form following a back surgery that cost him eight games in the 2013 season. He silenced his critics in the 2014 season by playing 13 games and racking up 1,573 all-purpose yards and 13 TDs. This production was amassed in the first year of the new post-Kubiak era with Coach Bill O’Brien.

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Foster has faced many doubters throughout his entire career. Going back to his collegiate career at Tennessee, he became the school’s all-time leading rusher through four seasons. This was overshadowed by his injury history, lack of dedication and his perceived case of “fumblitis,” despite only fumbling five times on 650 collegiate carries. As a result, Foster went undrafted in the 2009 NFL draft.

Although Foster proved he was still an elite running back in the 2014 season, many still have concerns regarding his durability as well as his workload going into the 2015 season. Injury concerns will always haunt Foster as he has only played a full 16-game season in two of his five seasons as an NFL starter. According to an algorithm developed by SportsInjuryPredictor.com, Foster has an 89% risk of re-injury, which is rated as high-risk. While injuries are nearly impossible to predict, it is something that has a huge bearing on the success of every player, especially someone with an injury history like Foster.

On the flip side, when Foster is healthy he is consistently one of the top fantasy backs. He has averaged over 1,800 all-purpose yards and 15 TDs per year from 2010-2014 excluding 2013, where Foster only played eight games. This equates to 125.43 all-purpose yards and 1.03 TDs per game. In fantasy terms that would provide roughly 18.5 points per week. For comparison purposes, the No. 1 running back averaged 18.4 (2014), 20.5 (2013), 19.2 (2012), 18.6 (2011) and 20.4 (2010) fantasy points per game. As a result, when healthy Foster ranks among the best fantasy backs in the league.

Although Foster’s injury history is certainly a concern, his workload for the 2015 season should not worry or deter any owners. Many were calling for a reduced workload when Ben Tate was the backup running back on the Texans. Many also believed the Texans would be better served letting Foster walk in free agency in 2012 and allow Tate to take over the starting role. Luckily for Texans fans, neither of those happened. 2015 is no different.

Many are calling for 2014 sixth-round pick Alfred Blue to get an increased role in the Texans’ offense at the expense of Arian Foster. O’Brien did say he wanted to monitor Foster’s snaps this season in an effort to keep Foster’s health in order to ensure he can be on the field for a full season. He even went on further to say, “Well, we have a very good running back, so you can rest assured that as long as he’s healthy and he’s out there, we will run the ball.” Furthermore, Blue averaged 3.1 yards per carry in 2014. Granted these numbers are not entirely accurate of Blue’s performance, they don’t exactly paint a great argument for an increased workload. For a better representation, in the three games Foster missed in 2014, Blue averaged 6.0, 4.3 and 2.9 yards per carry. While these numbers are certainly better, they do not justify reducing Foster’s workload significantly.

A clear-cut backup provides a lot of value for fantasy running back owners. Last year Blue assumed Foster’s role in the Texans’ offense in the three games he missed due to injury. Fantasy owners who want to play it safe can draft Blue as the handcuff to Foster in the later rounds of the draft. They can rest assured that they will always have a starting running back in what is a successful, run-happy Texans offense.

Overall, Foster is one of the better running back options for fantasy owners in 2015, both in standard as well as PPR leagues. He is also one of riskiest players being selected in the first round of fantasy drafts but also carries one of the highest ceilings. Many fantasy owners are very hesitant to select injury plagued players in the first round of their fantasy drafts and rightfully so.

There is no denying that Foster carries injury risk. However, this is mitigated by his consistent success dating back to 2010. Furthermore, bell cow running backs are few and far between in the NFL and Foster is one of the few dual-threat bell cows left. While missing three games in 2014, Foster still finished as a top-five running back in standard scoring. Foster can truly be one of the make or break players for your fantasy roster in 2015.

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Alex Haeussler is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Alex, check out his archive

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