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Fantasy Outlook: Houston Texans

Fantasy Outlook: Houston Texans
Arian Foster and the Texans will look to build on their 9-7 season

Arian Foster and the Texans will look to build on their 9-7 season

Here’s the latest in our team preview series, a look at the 2015 Houston Texans.

Last season marked the first year of the Bill O’Brien era in Houston. This era began with surprising success given that the roster remained relatively unchanged due to the vast amount of injuries in the 2014 draft class and a rotating door at the quarterback position. Although the Texans did not make the playoffs, they improved to 9-7 a year after finishing a dismal 2-14.

The Texans are by no means a fantasy juggernaut like the Packers or Broncos. They do however, have a few fantasy stars and a few training camp battles that are worth monitoring heading into the 2015 season.

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Quarterback

When ex-Patriot QB Brian Hoyer was signed in the offseason, the first impression was that he was signed to back up another ex-Patriot, Ryan Mallett. However, throughout OTA’s it appears as though Mallett has failed to cement himself as the starting quarterback and it was in fact Hoyer that outperformed him. This competition will continue into training camp but likely has very little fantasy impact for the quarterback position, unless you are in a two-QB fantasy league. It does however have bigger ramifications for the wide receiver position. According to Pro Football Focus, during the first six weeks of 2014 Hoyer had the most passing yards coming off a deep pass (20+ yards). This would spell good news for DeAndre Hopkins owners. Ultimately Texans coach Bill O’Brien has stated that the winner of the quarterback battle will be the one who provides the most consistency at the position.

Running Back

The Texans running back position has a much clearer outlook. Arian Foster is the clear-cut bell cow, and has been since 2010. Excluding 2013 where Foster only played eight games, he has averaged over 1,800 all-purpose yards and 15 TDs per year from 2010 to 2014. On the flip side, he does carry some injury concern, as he has missed significant time in the past and has not played a full season since 2012. Despite the injury concerns, Foster should still be drafted with comfort in the first round as a high-end RB1. For risk-averse owners, Foster can be handcuffed with his backup Alfred Blue, a sixth-round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. When Foster missed time in 2014, Blue filled into Foster’s three-down back role. Although he only managed 3.1 yards per carry in 2014, he has reportedly stepped up his training regimen and looks like a new running back heading into the 2015 season.

Wide Receiver

The Texans wide receiver position will be a completely revamped unit as one of the team’s all-time greats, Andre Johnson, is no longer with the club. This unit will feature a rising star in DeAndre Hopkins, with a plethora of question marks backing him up. After a respectable rookie campaign in 2013, Hopkins broke out in 2014 for 1,200 yards and six TDs. In 2015, Hopkins has a very high ceiling, as he is taking over the feature receiver role in Houston. He is currently being drafted as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. After Hopkins, the depth chart becomes cloudy. There is the newly signed Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington as well as third-round rookie Jaelen Strong. Reports out of OTA’s have Bill O’Brien praising Washington and Shorts for their hard work and strong route-running ability. Strong was a limited participant due to a tweaked hamstring, and O’Brien has stated he has a long way to go. Strong took this criticism to heart and lost 20 pounds prior to the start of training camp in an attempt to regain the coach’s praise. Texans beat writers have Shorts and Washington starting the year opposite Hopkins giving Strong time to develop and grow behind a solid veteran presence. It is unlikely that any of Shorts, Washington or Strong will provide much fantasy value in 2015 other than a spot start during bye weeks, unless an injury occurs.

Tight End

Since the departure of Owen Daniels after the 2013 season, the Texans tight end position has not provided much fantasy relevance. Look for this trend to continue in 2015. Texans beat writer, Tania Ganguli, expects this position to utilize a committee approach with Garrett Graham leading the pack, followed by Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz. In 2014, Graham managed roughly 18 yards per game through 11 games. Graham should see an uptick in his production in 2015, as he was battling an ankle injury last year, but there are far better tight end options to target in 2015.

Kicker

Not a highly regarded name in fantasy circles, Randy Bullock was surprisingly efficient in 2014 finishing as the seventh overall fantasy kicker. Bullock connected on 30 of his 35 field goals attempts and all 40 of his extra point attempts in 2014. With the Houston offense expected to perform relatively similar to their 2014 output, Bullock’s 2015 stats should remain steady. Currently the 20th kicker in our rankings, he can prove to be a great option for kicking streamers.

Defense/Special Teams

The Texans defense and special teams jumped back into fantasy relevance in 2014, finishing the year as the second overall fantasy defense. This was due primarily to an increase in the number of turnovers going from just 11 in 2013 to 34 in 2014. This amounts to 2.1 turnovers per game. While this ratio may be unsustainable, look for the Texans defense to get more sacks this year with an improved secondary, big-bodied Vince Wilfork clearing the way and a near-healthy Jadeveon Clowney.

In terms of the Texans special teams they have never been overly spectacular. They may provide the odd touchdown, but don’t bank on that as they did not have a single kickoff or punt return touchdown in 2014.

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Alex Haeussler is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Alex, check out his archive

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