Was Mark Ingram’s breakout last year a fluke?
What do you feel when you hear the name Mark Ingram? Before last year, your answer may have been “a little sick.”
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Expectations were high when a Drew Brees-led offense drafts a Heisman Trophy winner in the first round. In spite of that, it’s an understatement to say Ingram was a cruel tease in fantasyland for his first three seasons in New Orleans.
During that span, his best campaign was 602 yards rushing and five touchdowns in 2012. He hit rock bottom in 2013 when he ran for just 386 yards and one score in 11 games. Going into 2014, his average draft position was around the ninth round, and even then, some fantasy owners were understandably skittish.
But everything changed last year when he finally broke out with 964 yards and nine touchdowns in 13 games. He topped 100 yards four times, and while his usage slipped in December, he found the end zone in each of his final three games.
There’s every reason to believe his ascent to fantasy stardom will continue this year. The Saints are overhauling their offense, an identity transformation perfectly symbolized by the trade of Jimmy Graham to Seattle for center Max Unger. They also dealt Kenny Stills and drafted tackle Andrus Peat in the first round. Clearly, head coach Sean Payton intends to run the ball more in 2015 after an aging Brees led the NFL in pass attempts last season.
Ingram should be the new centerpiece of the offense, and he has the legs to carry the load. He’s only 25 years old and has averaged just 159 touches a season in his first four years.
Brees may be past his prime, but the Saints should still have one of the better offenses in the league. Ingram led the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line last year, and with Graham gone, he has a good chance for even more TD opportunities. Unger, a two-time Pro Bowler and 2012 first-team AP All-Pro, bolsters a line that was ranked ninth in run-blocking last year by Pro Football Focus.
Other scoring backs on productive offenses include Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson. Yet, Ingram isn’t being drafted anywhere near those backs this summer. But he has a chance to be in the paint just as much, making him a potential steal in the third round, which is where his ADP is. He’s currently the 15th-ranked RB in drafts, behind rookie Melvin Gordon and Alfred Morris. Are you kidding me?
I’m all over that. If he’s there for me in the third round in a standard league, my card will be at the podium before the previous player’s name is finished being announced.
So why is he that low? There are caveats, to be sure:
- Durability issues – He missed three games last year and five in 2012.
- He got paid – Some may see it as no coincidence that his breakout came during a contract year and wonder whether he’ll stay hungry.
- Lack of catches – His 29 last year were by far a career high, and he has never scored a touchdown reception. I’d be a little more hesitant on Ingram in a PPR league.
- C.J. Spiller – The Saints brought in an immensely talented weapon who could catch 80-plus passes and score double-digit touchdowns. In PPR, he’s the Saints’ back you want.
While Spiller’s skills are elite, they’re also limited. He’s not a between-the-tackles or red-zone runner, and both are Ingram’s turf. Their skill sets are so divergent that they’ll practically play different positions.
To imagine how that may play out, you don’t have to leave the Big Easy. In 2006, Reggie Bush caught 88 passes to go with 155 carries, but Deuce McAllister still ran for 1,057 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s what Payton may be envisioning again as the overall volume shifts back toward the backfield.
Those aren’t first-round fantasy numbers, so I’m not saying Ingram is being drafted too low. But perhaps we’re still haunted by the multiple times he’s burned fantasy owners.
Forget that. Ingram has truly turned the corner and has entered his prime. Coaches and teammates have raved about his work ethic and growth in maturity. He’s an ideal RB2, or an RB1 if you go WR-WR in the first two rounds. He’s a third-round pick with first-round upside.
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Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
