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Fantasy Outlook: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Outlook: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2015 first-overall pick Jameis Winston has enough weapons in Tampa Bay to lead a productive offense this season

2015 first-overall pick Jameis Winston has enough weapons in Tampa Bay to lead a productive offense this season

Here’s the latest in our team preview series, a look at the 2015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

2014 Team Record: 2-14

Key players: Mike Evans (WR), Doug Martin (RB), Jameis Winston (QB)

Notable additions: Jameis Winston (QB), Tim Wright (TE)

Even in a severely weakened NFC South division in which no team had a winning record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers only managed two victories. In fact, they were bad enough to earn the first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft in Chicago.

Now, with a new face of the franchise and a much-improved roster, they could launch a challenge for the division title en route to significantly improving their win total from last season. But even if they do that, will they have players who’ll contribute in the fantasy game as well? Let’s have a look.

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Quarterback

That No. 1 pick the Buccaneers had on the last day of April was spent on Florida State University’s Jameis Winston. Winston was widely regarded as the best quarterback, but not necessarily the best player to come out of college this year. He will be playing on a team that does have offensive talent and can be productive if they play well.

Following a season with over 1,000 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, Mike Evans will surely be Winston’s top target. He’ll be supplemented by the likes of veteran Vincent Jackson, the newly-signed Tim Wright and Tavarres King, as well as sophomore Austin Seferian-Jenkins. And if Doug Martin doesn’t work out in the run game, then competent pass-catcher and 2014 draftee Charles Sims will be waiting to take his place.

Though for as good as Winston and his supporting cast has the potential to be, it would be dangerous to look past the fact that September will be the start of his rookie season. Traditionally, rookies have growing pains. There’s a big step up from college to the big leagues. The speed of the game is greater, windows become tighter and opposing players are better. These are all aspects of the game that Winston will have to conquer alongside learning a new playbook and gelling with his new teammates.

Of course, there are plenty of rookies who do succeed in their first year. Winston’s teammate Doug Martin was one example; then you have other QBs like Robert Griffin III, who won Rookie of the Year back in 2012. So it is doable. Winston has the talent, most definitely. But the biggest teller for success this year is how quickly he develops and adapts to the pro level. He could do well in fantasy, but that’s something we’re unlikely to know until at least a couple of weeks into the season. He could have value as a backup for bye weeks, so if you are going to take him at all then using one of your last two picks would be appropriate.

Running Back

Believe it or not, Tampa Bay actually has a good backfield. But the stats wouldn’t tell you this. In 2014, the Bucs had the fourth-fewest rushing yards and were only one place better when it came to rushing touchdowns. In short, they were not good enough. In fantasy, their lead back was actually Bobby Rainey. He managed to beat out Doug Martin for the top spot despite having 88 fewer rushing yards than him, due to his proficiency in the passing game.

Wide Receiver

Only three players received votes for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year last season. Odell Beckham won in a landslide; Zack Martin had a few votes and Mike Evans also received one. To even take a single vote away from Beckham, who was absolutely fantastic in the 12 games that he played, is a testament to how good Evans was. There is potential for second-season syndrome, but Evans has the talent and even managed to build up a decent rapport with a mediocre Josh McCown. It could be argued that he is a little touchdown-dependent as he averaged 0.75 per game, but he should be a WR1 on most teams.

There’s also Vincent Jackson, who is coming off the back of his fourth-straight 1,000-yard season. Unlike Evans, Jackson struggled in the touchdown department registering just two all year, but his strong yardage total still makes him a viable WR3/flex option. The rest of the Bucs’ WR corps is unlikely to make a fantasy splash, but look for Louis Murphy to contribute if anything happens to the team’s top two wideouts.

Tight End

Austin Seferian-Jenkins showed flashes of a solid NFL tight end last season but succumbed to the usual weak season as a rookie tight end. This year he is a breakout candidate, but could see his field time limited by the re-signed Tim Wright. The 2015 Super Bowl winner has returned to the team that traded him away just a year ago. Although Wright’s stat line wasn’t rich in yardage, he was a big target in the red zone for Tom Brady.

Because of Wright’s presence, it will be an interesting year for Seferian-Jenkins. Not only will he have to improve vastly upon his first year, but he also has to wrestle with legitimate competition for targets. One saving grace is that big TEs provide good security blankets for rookie quarterbacks, and so they could see plenty of targets. There’s also Brandon Myers and Luke Stocker to consider, which only hurts the value of the other two tight ends. The Buccaneers could be a source of tight end production, but that’s something that would only become clear as the season unfolds. The best bet here is to take a late round flier on Seferian-Jenkins and see if he pans out.

Kicker

If you’re looking to take a kicker in your draft, then you should probably steer clear of Tampa Bay. Last year’s starter Patrick Murray scored the 25th-most fantasy points at the position with only two double-digit scoring games despite playing each week. Playing on the worst team in football can’t have helped, but will Tampa Bay’s offense improve enough to give their kicker plenty of chances to score points? To an extent, maybe. However, the improvement won’t be significant.

Murray will compete in training camp with Brandon Bogotay, but it’s likely neither will make waves in the fantasy game this year.

Defense/Special Teams

The Super Bowl XXXVII champions were basement dwellers when it came to D/ST last year. There were only seven teams who had fewer fantasy points in that category, and they gave up 56 points in a single game to the Atlanta Falcons. They were just as bad in the return game, scoring no return touchdowns.

But there is some glimmer of hope for them. They did have more tackles than any other team in the league last year, and were in the top half for both interceptions and forced fumbles. The unit has a solid base to build on, but will have to negate the losses of both Michael Johnson and Adrian Clayborn to free agency. They’ll more than likely be a team to play if they have a favorable matchup.

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Tom Woods is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Tom, check out his archive and follow him @RealTomWoods.

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