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Fantasy Football: When Should I Draft a QB?

Fantasy Football: When Should I Draft a QB?
Drafting Ryan Tannehill gives you a viable option at QB while presenting you with many chances to load up on RBs and WRs

There are viable QB options later in drafts, presenting you with many chances to load up on RBs and WRs

The quarterback position has quickly become the most important one in the NFL. Just take a look at all of the rules tailored toward the quarterback and then take a look at the highest-paid players in the league. Spreading the field and airing it out is a priority for many NFL offenses now more than ever.

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However, quarterbacks aren’t always deemed as the most important position in fantasy football. In standard leagues, passing touchdowns count for only four points, while rushing and receiving touchdowns earn six. It’s normally the running backs and wide receivers flying off the board while only a couple of the best quarterbacks get picked in the first few rounds.

Timing when to take your quarterback is important. There are a couple of studs, but other than that, the production is mostly the same across the board, with little upside in between. So what’s the best way to approach the quarterback position in 2015? I’ll explain what the position looks like and how to assess it in this article.

The quarterback position has had the same four or five studs the past few seasons. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and recently Andrew Luck have been the most consistent quarterbacks for fantasy players this decade. Rodgers and Luck are still two superb options, but Brees, Manning and Brady are facing father time and adversity. Brees is coming off a down season and the Saints seem to be shifting to a more balanced attack. He will also be missing key weapons from the past in Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. Brees will turn 37 at the end of the 2015 season.

Manning was a stud for the first three-quarters of the season, but his production fell off dramatically as he played with a torn quadricep muscle in the final games of the season. His health has always been in question since his neck surgery in 2011, and he turned 39 last March. The fix has been in for Tom Brady for a while, but he continues to put up top 10 fantasy numbers. However, Brady just turned 38 and will be (as of right now) suspended for the first four games of the season because of the Deflategate saga. He can’t be drafted as your fantasy starter.

That leaves Rodgers and Luck as our only two true studs to feel safe about taking. Both play in superb, pass-happy offenses and have a plethora of talented weapons. They’ll likely be taken in the first two rounds, and nobody can fault you for taking one of these prized quarterbacks. Take last season for example. Rodgers edged out Luck in total points, but the margin between Luck and the third best quarterback, Russell Wilson, was 23.4 points. Picking Rodgers or Luck in the first two rounds is one of the safest picks possible in the draft.

However, if you don’t get one of these top two guys, you’re better off waiting. That’s because the production among the next group of guys doesn’t vary by much. The difference between Russell Wilson (the third overall QB) and Brees (the sixth overall QB) was merely 24.6 points. The variation in production is even more minimal in the next tier as well, as the difference between Matt Ryan (seventh overall QB) and Philip Rivers (12th overall QB) was 18.3 points. The variation in scoring among the second and third tier quarterbacks should shrink even more with Brees, Manning and Brady being more uncertain players than in years past. There also isn’t much of an emergence among younger quarterbacks to replace these elite players. Russell Wilson is a strong candidate but gets a bulk of his production from running, which can vary for a quarterback.

Other than that, there isn’t much hype surrounding other quarterbacks. You pretty much know what you’ll get out of guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan and their ceilings aren’t incredibly high.

If you don’t get Rodgers or Luck, then wait. Use Rounds 3-6 or 7 to grab running backs and wide receivers, as those positions have a higher level of variance and scarcity. There’s no harm in snagging a guy like Tony Romo or Cam Newton in Rounds 8 or 9. They have a chance to be just as productive on a week-to-week basis as Roethlisberger, Ryan, Brees or maybe Manning. Ryan Tannehill also serves as a possible, but riskier option if the cupboard is bare.

Patience may be a virtue at the quarterback position. Either snag a top guy right away or wait till the back-end of the draft to find your gunslinger while reeling in as many lottery tickets at running back and wide receiver as you can.

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Matt Barbato is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @realmattbarbato.

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