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Fantasy Outlook: Dez Bryant

Fantasy Outlook: Dez Bryant
Will DeMarco Murray's departure help or hurt Dez Bryant?

Will DeMarco Murray’s departure help or hurt Dez Bryant?

Five years, $70 million and $45 million guaranteed. That’s what Jerry Jones and Roc Nation were able to agree on to keep Dez Bryant around for the duration of Tony Romo’s career, which I boldly predict to be five more seasons. Dez Bryant continuously puts up elite receiver numbers and likely has not even hit his peak yet. Bryant is the undisputed WR1 in Dallas and warrants your consideration as your first draft pick for the upcoming season. Here are a few reasons why I believe you cannot go wrong in selecting Bryant with your first pick.

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He continues to dominate at his position

Take a look at Bryant’s career statistics since joining the league in 2010.

Overall, you could say that Bryant has gotten better each season. A few of his statistics (mainly targets and receptions) fluctuate, but Bryant’s touchdown totals increase with each season. In three of his five seasons, Bryant has recorded at least 100 targets, 88 receptions, 62% completion rate, 1,200 yards, 14 yards per reception and 12 touchdowns. Those numbers are the production of a WR1 in fantasy football. That sort of consistency over half of his career not only puts him in the elite tier of receivers but it makes him a dominant receiver. This is a player who likely has not even hit his ceiling yet.

The 2012 season may be an indicator of what we will see in 2015

There are a few factors to consider when projecting the 2015 season in comparison to the 2012 season. Let’s start with Bryant’s quarterback. In 2012, a very healthy Tony Romo participated in offseason workouts and played a full 16 games. Both 2013 and 2014 saw Tony Romo miss the offseason due to back surgeries each year. This year Romo suited up for his first offseason since 2012. He is as healthy as he’s ever been, and this should make a difference for this season.

The 2012 season also saw some career highs for Romo and Bryant. Below is their statistical output from 2012 with career highs in yellow.

It is worth noting that Bryant’s 92 receptions on 138 targets from that season were the second best of his career and came up just short of those totals being career bests in 2012. Both Romo and Bryant saw the most yards, yards per game and bonus (300 yards passing/100 yards receiving) yard games of their career. Romo also threw a career-high 19 interceptions for the second time. With that said, we now have a more mature Romo who should not repeat those bonehead interceptions. We also have seen the owner Jerry Jones spend high picks building his offensive line in each draft since then. Tony Romo no longer has the need to run for his life and make poor decisions when throwing the ball. He also, as I previously mentioned, has a clean bill of health for the first time since that season full of career highs.

Another factor to consider is the absence of DeMarco Murray. Last season, Murray himself ran the ball more times and for more yards than the entire team in 2012. I do not expect Dallas to abandon the run game. However, there is no workhorse to rely on for them to rush the ball more than they pass. We should still see somewhat of a balance, but the scales will tip slightly towards passing this season rather than rushing. This opens up the opportunity for more passing targets that will go in the direction of the team’s, and arguably the league’s, No. 1 receiver.

Strength of schedule

Even though Bryant is a dominant receiver, schedule can influence how a receiver may perform. If you head over to our strength of schedule page, you will see that we have the Dallas Cowboys ranked sixth in terms of fantasy-friendly schedule for 2015. If you look even further at our matchup calendar, you might stop what you are doing and jump into a draft right now to secure more Dez Bryant shares. Out of 16 games, Bryant has just two “tough matchups” compared to seven “easy matchups.” When you factor that in with the inevitable uptick in targets and receptions Bryant should see this season, you have the formula for fantasy dominance.

Murray’s departure further opened up Bryant’s window of opportunity. He is now unequivocally the centerpiece of this offense, which has been made evident by the contract he was rewarded with. This is also evident due to the lack of a consistent WR2 in Dallas. Terrance Williams is not to Bryant what Roddy White is to Julio Jones or Emmanuel Sanders to Demaryius Thomas. Those WR2s perform better than Williams and demand more attention from defenses than he does. Bryant stands on his own in Dallas. Although Williams, Jason Witten and the emerging Cole Beasley will see their share of targets, they shouldn’t “eat” into Bryant’s targets. Consider these things when you are drafting and reap the benefits of having the most consistently dominant receiver of the past three seasons on your winning team.

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Jen Ryan is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Click here for her archive and feel free to reach her and talk all things fantasy @FFdeJENerate!

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