What can we expect from LeSean McCoy and the Bills this season?
Sinking into my couch on a cool Sunday morning with a fresh cup of Newman’s Own, I take a 73 yard scamper to the house with LeSean McCoy playing Madden on my PS4. A typical fist pump ensues and the smile on my face is genuine satisfaction. Few players possess the raw ability that McCoy brings to the field. Antonio Brown, Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, Desean Jackson and T.Y. Hilton are other names that come to mind when discussing lighting-fast quicks and explosive agility. They are electric in space, slippery between the tackles and can bust out a monster play any time they touch the pigskin. The question is, does Shady still deserve to be part of this list?
Draft Wizard: Prepare for your draft in 5 minutes 
The former 2009 second-round pick has played all his snaps in an Eagles’ jersey. The Pittsburgh college product has posted five straight 1000+ yards seasons and hit double-digit touchdowns twice, most notably his 20 all-purpose TD outburst in 2011. Skeptics will point to his declining numbers last year even though they can be attributed to an offensive line decimated by injury and a lack of opportunity in the receiving game – an area he normally thrives in – as he only caught 28 passes for 155 yards and 0 touchdowns. He posted just 172 fantasy points.
While he has landed in Buffalo running behind a weaker offensive line, Shady has the opportunity to be utilized as a true lead back by one of the league’s prestigious ground-and-pound coaches in Rex Ryan. The former New York Jets’ coach holds high praise for his new running back, as he quickly defended McCoy amidst the media debacle surrounding the running back’s recently cancelled celebration party inviting females only to enjoy expensive drinks and a night to remember. The coach joked that he was disappointed that he wasn’t invited and emphasized that it is a team game. While we certainly cannot make light of the bizarre misogynistic situation, we can take comfort in the fact that Ryan loves McCoy, or rather, the talent and potential that he brings to the Bills’ offense. There is no doubt in my mind they will rely heavily on McCoy in both the running and receiving game. A reasonable expectation is to see him go for 305 carries, 1,350 yards and 8 TDs on the ground while chipping in 51 receptions for 376 yards with 4 TDs. The receiving totals are a bit higher than we currently have projected, but I like him as a dump-off target for whoever takes over behind center for the Bills. These numbers give me confidence to draft him in the late-first or early-second round as a RB1. If you are able to get him with your second pick this offers an exceptional value as well as a consistent, healthy option as one of your top selections.
The risk in this situation is the severe lack of leadership and skill at the quarterback position. There will be a shortage of space as defenses will stack the box more often unless Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and newly-acquired Percy Harvin can successfully stretch the field to open things up. It does help enormously that McCoy will be the best back Ryan has ever worked with and this fact alone has me convinced that Fred Jackson is not a threat to Shady’s production. Ryan and offensive coordinator Greg Roman are two highly intelligent coaches who will employ a variety of tactics to bring out the best in McCoy. Keep this in mind, Roman consistently kept the 49ers at the top of the league in rush attempts. From 2011 through 2014 the 49ers ranked second in total rushing yards with 8,912, second in rushing yards per game with 139.3, third in rushing attempts with 1,965 and third in rushes of 10 yards or more with 267. They were also in the top six for average yards per carry with 4.54. It is no coincidence that in 2014 the San Francisco 49ers had the fourth-best running game in the league while Ryan’s Jets ranked third. The naysayers consistently downgraded Frank Gore the past three years in their rankings while Roman kept him fantasy relevant, and then some. This is the spark the Bills’ offense desperately needs.
Did I mention that the Bills have arguably the best defense in all of the NFL? In 2014 this powerhouse unit had 19 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries, one safety, three blocks, 289 points allowed and led the league with 54 sacks. These are absolutely elite numbers, and I have them ranked in a top-three D/ST going into 2015. This translates into a lot of opportunities for the offense, and Roman will turn them into long possessions. The acquisition of tight end Charles Clay will bolster the offense and provide a safety valve for whichever Bills quarterback starts in Week 1. He will also provide much better run blocking than what Buffalo has been accustomed to with Scott Chandler. I am a firm believer that the Bills make it to the postseason this year and make it past the first round. Beyond that, we will have to wait and see how the quarterback situation plays out in training camp and by the end of Week 17.
The attrition we are seeing this year at the running back position is real, and the majority of teams across the NFL are engaging a running back by committee approach that can be best described as a one-two punch that keeps legs fresh and defenders guessing. This will not be the case in Buffalo.McCoy is at a whole other level compared to his competition for playing time. I forecast a drop in Jackson’s numbers from last year and that he will be used sparingly in the receiving game and red zone. Draft McCoy confidently with your first- or second-round pick, and if you can get Jackson in a much later round as a handcuff it would be wise to do so.
Expectations will be shattered in 2015, and I am jacked to see McCoy return to his dominant form like we saw in 2011 and 2013. He will finish the season as a top 6 running back behind the likes of Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles. Don’t miss it.
Mock in minutes with our free draft simulator
Nicholas Hopkins is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicholas, check out his archive.
