Can Marshawn Lynch continue to put up numbers despite being months away from turning 30?

Eric Moody discusses the fantasy outlook for Marshawn Lynch in the upcoming season.

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Do you remember this time last year when everyone thought Marshawn Lynch was playing his final season with the Seattle Seahawks? What a difference a year makes. Lynch has averaged 4.6 yards per carry, 1,677 total yards and 14 touchdowns over the past three seasons. He had an average draft position (ADP) of 1.10 in 12-team standard scoring leagues according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Lynch outperformed his draft position to finish as the No. 3 fantasy running back.

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The Seahawks added tight end Jimmy Graham to the offense. He is a legitimate receiving weapon for quarterback Russell Wilson and adds another dimension to the offense. Lynch is the engine that fuels the Seahawks offense. Graham’s presence should draw defenders and open additional running lanes for Lynch. I have him ranked fourth among all running backs. This article will help you understand why Lynch should be part of your draft strategy.

Lynch displays the quickness, balance, and explosiveness necessary for the running back position. He set a career high last year with 17 touchdowns. Here is a snapshot of Lynch’s production over the past three seasons.

Lynch has the mental speed necessary to key and diagnose the situation, make adjustments and is instinctive. He has very good vision and his Pro Football Focus “Elusive Rating” reflects his ability to improvise for positive yards when a play breaks down. It boils down a running back’s success beyond the point of being helped by his blockers. Lynch led all running backs with 50% or more of a team’s carries with a 94 in this metric last season. The second best running back was Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy with 73.

Lynch displays an aggressive, passionate attitude when carrying the football. He competes, does not back down from engaging defensive players, and finishes every single rushing attempt. Lynch is tremendous in yards after contact. He generated 835 rushing yards after contact last season. Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray led the NFL with 1,024 rushing yards after contact. He accomplished that with 407 total rushing attempts to Lynch’s 283. Lynch is one of the best in the league at maintaining his balance and generating positive yards after contact with defensive players. Running backs with these traits generate yardage on each play. Lynch and Murray share these qualities and, as a result, finished with the same Pro Football Focus “Points Per Opportunity” figure of 0.46. PPO takes a player’s total fantasy points scored and divides it by his carries plus his pass routes run.

 
An element often overlooked when evaluating a fantasy running back is production in the passing game. Does the running back have the ability to use their hands and adjust to catch the ball? Can he gather himself and generate positive yardage up the field? Lynch has displayed his talents as a receiver over the last three seasons. The Pro Football Focus “Yards per route run” takes into account the number of snaps a player went into a pattern. It provides a better indicator of production than yards per reception or even yards per target.

Here are Lynch’s figures over that time frame:

Lynch is also one of the most durable running backs in the league. The website Sports Injury Predictor is a great resource to help you understand the injury history and risks of players at any position. Lynch is classified as a low risk heading into 2015. He is the epitome of what you want in an NFL running back. Lynch manages pain well and doesn’t allow it to impact his production. He has missed one game the past five NFL seasons.

Conclusion

 
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