How should you approach D/ST on draft day?
The range of opinions on where to draft defensive/special teams units is almost as chaotic as the position itself.
Experts say you should wait until the final rounds and just stream them week to week, but there are always a few that go in the middle rounds.
Where your preference lies should depend a lot on the scoring system your league uses. In leagues that give significant weight to yards allowed, DSTs can be game-changers in some weeks and therefore draw more attention on draft day. If your league rules don’t reward defenses with a lot of points, then it’s no big deal if you ignore them until you have to take one.
The position is frustrating because so many variables go into the results, and the most random factor of all is the most significant; touchdowns. I don’t blame those who just throw their hands up and treat DSTs like kickers, wishing they weren’t on rosters at all.
But it isn’t just a roll of the dice, and a little homework can reveal which units are more likely to succeed, at least early on. As with any position, you track personnel and coaching moves, analyze schedules, and see which teams have the best talent in key areas of their defenses.
So here a few tips on drafting DSTs.
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Under any scoring system, I won’t touch them until at least Round 10 in a 12-team, 15-round draft, and even then, only the elites get considered, which likely means they won’t be there for me. Oh well. It’s too important to assemble a solid starting lineup and top reserves of the more predictable skill positions. But if my favorite DST this season, the Buffalo Bills, top three in sacks and turnovers the past two years, now under Rex Ryan, are there in the 10th round, I’d seriously consider them.
It’s not enough to be simply a solid defense. A DST needs to make plays to be a fantasy force. Hence, the choice of Buffalo as my top unit over Seattle. The Seahawks have been feared by opposing offenses in recent years, but in 2014, they were just middle of the pack in sacks and turnovers. They were the top fantasy unit last year because they allowed almost 30 fewer points than any other team, but you can’t count on that kind of runaway dominance again.
However, the Seahawks are a far better choice in Week 1, and that may alter your draft thinking. While Seattle gets the Rams, the Bills have to face Indianapolis without the suspended Marcell Dareus and likely at least one of their starting cornerbacks. So if you draft them, you either have to take a hit in the opener or draft a second DST to stream the first week.
Third in my rankings are the St. Louis Rams, which I’d consider in the 11th round. Just looking at their 2014 numbers can be deceiving, because they showed huge improvement over the course of the season. Their 40 sacks were tied for 13th in the league, but 39 of them came over the final 10 games. Ten of their 13 interceptions were in the second half of the year.
There’s a big dropoff after those teams as far as I’m concerned. The only other DSTs I’d look at before the second-to-last round are the New York Jets (Revis Island returns, and they open against Cleveland), Miami Dolphins (Ndamukong Suh joins Cameron Wake for Week 1 against the imploding Redskins) and Denver Broncos (Wade Phillips coaching Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware). The Texans are high on ADP lists, but Houston has a problem; an offense that will be in shambles, especially early on with Arian Foster out. Their defense will be on the field a lot.
After that, the schedule becomes the primary factor, meaning streamers in the final rounds. My recommended choices in that scenario would be the Philadelphia Eagles (at Atlanta Week 1), Kansas City Chiefs (Houston) and Cincinnati Bengals (at Oakland).
If you want a sleeper that can stay in your lineup for the first few weeks, take a look at Cleveland. The Browns were second in the league with 21 interceptions last year, and their first three opponents are the Jets, Titans and Raiders.
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Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
