Skip to main content

Fantasy Outlook: Drew Brees

Fantasy Outlook: Drew Brees
Now that Drew Brees has fallen from elite status, what can we expect from him moving forward?

Now that Drew Brees has fallen from elite status, what can we expect from him moving forward?

2014 was a frustrating season for Drew Brees, as the Saints’ quarterback saw his interceptions rise and his best targets fall victim to age and injury. Losing Jimmy Graham hurts, and the player they received in return, C Max Unger, is one of the best run blockers at his position in the league. Mark Ingram’s long awaited emergence last season and the question marks with the Saints’ remaining receiving options seem to set Brees up for a disappointing 2015. There is a point, however, where the hate can go too far.

Draft Wizard: Mock in minutes vs. the most accurate experts partner-arrow

Replacing Graham

In 2014, Jimmy Graham led the Saints with 125 targets, 85 receptions and 10 TDs. Despite some offseason hype for TE Josh Hill and training camp buzz on WR Brandon Coleman, there is very clearly not a true replacement for Jimmy Graham on this roster. Neither Hill or Coleman have made the most of their preseason opportunities. That does not mean Brees will be useless.

Second-year WR Brandin Cooks is a highly talented player who has flashed great talent on short and deep routes this preseason. Marques Colston is 32 years old, but still is a valuable red zone and third down target. Kenny Stills is gone, but so is Devery Henderson, a player who filled a similar role on the Saints’ offense. New Orleans has shown a penchant for reloading on their offense, and Brees’ value should not crater simply due to previous targets leaving.

C.J. Spiller’s addition should fill a Darren Sproles-sized hole that will allow Brees to capitalize on screens and third-down dump-offs much more than in 2014. Graham has not been replaced, but New Orleans is not going to switch from 600 passes a year to 500. Expectations should be tempered, but with Brees’ ADP sitting at No. 53 overall, and fifth among quarterbacks, if he can be had in the sixth round or later, he becomes a reasonable value.

Age and Injury

According to reports, Brees was suffering from an oblique injury during the second half of the regular season in 2014 which disrupted his mechanics and subsequently his production. Certainly Brees did not look like himself, and if he is healthy as reported, his performance may bounce back. Much like Peyton Manning, however, even if he is returning to full health after last season, quarterbacks in their late 30s are more susceptible to small, nagging injuries than younger players. Most of last year’s late-season fade points towards an injury being disruptive to Brees, and it seems reasonable to expect him to be in better form this September. Like Manning, however, it is dangerous for fantasy owners to be relying on an older quarterback without an alternative come December.

Conclusion

The Saints’ defense was a disaster in 2014 and will likely be heavily suspect in 2015 as well. Common sense points towards New Orleans running the football with greater frequency this season, and likely they will try to establish their running game in a more balanced fashion than in years past. The defense’s gaping holes, however, seem likely to place New Orleans in positions to need Drew Brees’ passing, and his production should be consistent with the past couple seasons.

Taking Brees in the first four rounds and expecting him to be the top three quarterback he was in 2012 is a mistake. With Jordy Nelson’s injury and the troubles of Pittsburgh’s offense, there is far less space between Brees and the elite fantasy QBs this year, though. He’ll end up as either a value pick in the sixth round or beyond, or a reach pick who will provide discerning owners the opportunity to snag another valuable player instead.

Mock in minutes with our free draft simulator partner-arrow

John Trupin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from John, check out his archive and follow him @troopdogg24.

More Articles

Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman (Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman (Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 3 min read
Fantasy Football Draft Value Fallers: Kenny Pickett, Justin Jefferson, Tyjae Spears, Justin Herbert

Fantasy Football Draft Value Fallers: Kenny Pickett, Justin Jefferson, Tyjae Spears, Justin Herbert

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
2024 NFL Draft USC Pro Day: Caleb Williams, MarShawn Lloyd, Brenden Rice (Fantasy Football)

2024 NFL Draft USC Pro Day: Caleb Williams, MarShawn Lloyd, Brenden Rice (Fantasy Football)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 1 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

2 min read

Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman (Fantasy Football)

Next Up - Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman (Fantasy Football)

Next Article