Is this the week John Brown will break out?
We are now one quarter through the NFL season. At this point, fantasy owners have a good idea of where their season-long team rosters’ strengths and weaknesses are. The waiver wire or trades will address these team needs and/or help owners make up their minds on a streaming option to address players sitting due to an injury or a bye.
Below are some interesting statistical tidbits which can better help you target buy-low players possibly available on the waiver wire or via trade. These tidbits can also help you optimize season-long fantasy league or daily fantasy lineups.
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The Seahawks have not allowed a touchdown in their last 18 regular-season quarters with Kam Chancellor on the field
The Seahawks are certainly happy to have strong safety Kam Chancellor back following his contract holdout. Unfortunately for the Bengals wide receivers, this may mean another tough week for them. In Week 4, the numbers posted by the Bengals’ wide receivers were somewhat underwhelming, despite Andy Dalton putting up 321 yards and a touchdown. The leading receiver for Cincinnati in Week 4 was Mohammad Sanu who had four receptions and 84 yards. A.J. Green was held to only 82 yards on seven receptions and Marvin Jones was basically invisible (one catch for four yards). While the Legion of Boom does not have an interception through four games after leading the NFL with 81 from 2011-2014, the Seahawks defensive backfield is still getting the job done and is even more dominant with Chancellor back in the fold. Look for another week where the Bengals, out of necessity, continue to pound the ball meaning more opportunities for Jeremy Hill, who had three touchdowns in Week 4, and Giovani Bernard. Andy Dalton, alternatively, may be a good fade for Week 5.
Eli Manning has had the most passes dropped so far in 2015 (15 total)
In Week 5, the Giants play host to the 49ers. With Victor Cruz still nursing a calf injury that could keep him out for a number of weeks, the Giants need another playmaker who can complement Odell Beckham and pull stifling coverage away from him. Beckham, held to only 38 yards on five receptions in Week 4, was targeted 12 times in heavy traffic. In Week 3, Rueben Randle was the answer for the Giants against the Redskins, but his play has been frustratingly inconsistent. Tight end Larry Donnell has also not been the security blanket that the Giants had hoped for, as he has contributed to those poor drop numbers in 2015. In Week 5, look for the Giants to continue to get a more sure-handed Dwayne Harris involved in the offense. In Week 4, Harris posted 51 yards on five receptions, including a touchdown. As such, Harris is a sneaky deep league flex play and cheap DFS option for Week 5. In addition, the Giants need to go back to Shane Vereen and utilize him in the passing game. After a Week 2 performance against the Falcons in which Vereen caught eight passes for 76 yards (and coincidentally Beckham had his best game of the season), the Giants have inexplicably not gone back to Vereen as a receiver (no catches in Weeks 3 and 4). In Week 5, look for the Giants to get Vereen more involved in the passing game. While he is a very risky play in PPR leagues and DFS, he could be a potential cheap home run hitter, similar to Duke Johnson’s breakout performance in Week 4 for the Browns.
The Miami Dolphins have run the ball only 65 times in four games
In comparison, Dolphins opponents have run the ball 147 times in the first four games of 2015. This statistical differential is not the product of game flow either. In Week 1, Miami beat the Redskins 17-10 and in Week 2 Miami lost to Jacksonville by only three points. Despite having numerous offensive weapons including Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry, it’s no surprise that with the decision not to establish any type of running game, the Miami offense has sputtered out of the gate in 2015 and, currently twenty-third in total offense. With the long overdue firing of Joe Philbin, we will likely see more of a commitment to a balanced offensive attack which will increase Lamar Miller’s involvement. Miami is on bye in Week 5, giving them time to hopefully adjust their offensive game-planning. In Week 6, the Dolphins will travel to Tennessee to face a rush defense that most recently gave up two TDs and 86 yards to Frank Gore on the ground in Week 3. As such, Miller is a solid buy-low target right now, particularly given that Miami is on bye this week and frustrated owners may be getting restless.
John Brown has five career games of 62 receiving yards or more, with two of those five coming in Week 3 and Week 4
In Week 4, John Brown pulled in 75 yards on seven receptions and was targeted a team high of 10 times. He’s clearly taking on a bigger role in the Cardinals offense as the season continues, particularly after the first two weeks of 2015 in which his numbers were very modest. In Week 5, the Cardinals travel to Detroit to face the winless Lions. Although all five games in which Brown put up at least 62 receiving yards were played at home, this recent trend favors Brown continuing to see a high volume of targets. Although Detroit’s pass defense appeared to rebound in Week 4 when it allowed only 235 passing yards to the Seahawks, Seattle is not a pass-first offense. In contrast, in Week 3, Detroit’s defense allowed 313 passing yards to Peyton Manning and the Broncos. In Week 5, we can expect numbers similar to Week 3, if not better, yielded by Detroit given the Cardinals’ potent offense. Brown could be in for a true breakout performance in Week 5. While owned in the majority of leagues (CBS ownership of 86%; ESPN ownership of 76%), he should be scooped up in those leagues where he is still somehow available, or targeted as a buy-low trade candidate.
Jordan Matthews has 140 YAC, tenth best for all NFL wide receivers
More impressively, the 140 YAC is the best for all wide receivers in Matthews’ sophomore class. The Eagles and Sam Bradford are off to a brutal start in 2015. Despite the poor start, Matthews has reeled in 281 receiving yards on 25 receptions and one touchdown and is at the top of his draft class once he gets the ball in his hands. Similar to Bradford’s counterpart Eli Manning up the New Jersey Turnpike, Bradford has been victimized by 14 dropped passes so far in 2015 (the second most in the NFL right behind Manning). If the Eagles can get Darren Sproles more involved in the passing game (he had no catches in Week 4 on just three targets) and Nelson Agholor can work out his early-season struggles and miscues, this may reduce drops, extend drives and open up the passing game to the benefit of Matthews. Matthews, already consistently ranked in the top-20 on a weekly basis, may then turn these catches into TDs if the Eagles can operate with more frequency in the red zone. Although already highly ranked, there is certainly room for Matthews to move well into the top-10 tier of receivers before the end of the 2015 season, but it’s dependent upon how Chip Kelley looks to address his existing formula on offense.
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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
