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DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 4

DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 4
Don't forget about Drew Brees against a middle-of-the-road Dallas pass defense

Don’t forget about Drew Brees against a middle-of-the-road Dallas pass defense

In back-to-back weeks we have found success in suggested lineups with both scoring over 200 points! Let’s carry that momentum into Week 4. Last week was an aberration in regards to how many points you will need to take down the Millionaire Maker. First place scored over 300 points! Usually, you won’t need 6X value to take down the Millionaire Maker. Proceed with the 4-5X formula that was given to you in previous weeks. If you’re able to reach or exceed that, your bankroll will have continued success.

Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown are usually the highest priced players at their respective positions. Neither are available in DraftKings’ Week 4 Millionaire Maker tournament, allowing you to think outside the box and spend your salary in many different ways. If you pay close attention around the industry, you can sniff the buzz being carried around certain players’ names e.g. (Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Randall Cobb, Amari Cooper, Karlos Williams and Greg Olsen). More than likely I will fade the guys garnering too much of a buzz and pivot to others with similar salaries that have just as much upside, coming with far lower ownership.

I will be rolling out 12-20 lineups in the DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker this week. Here is one of the lineups that I will be using, with insight as to why you should target these players.

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Quarterback

Drew Brees – DAL at NO – $7,400
How many of you have forgotten about Drew Brees? Don’t be shy and raise your hand. Nobody is watching. Brees has always been a monster at home, and he shouldn’t be overlooked, but he will be this week vs. the Cowboys. Brees’ salary is still among the elite, which will cause his ownership to be one of he lowest this week. I’m not convinced by a Dallas defense that is ranked 13th in the league thus far in passing yards allowed this season. If you have an extra bullet in your gun, take a shot on Brees and expect him and the Saints to go marching in.

Running Backs

Matt Forte – OAK at CHI – $7,100
I absolutely love Matt Forte this week. He grades out as one of the top RB options once again but should come with lower ownership than usual after a putrid Week 3. The public is expecting the Raiders to come in and pounce vs. the Bears. Forte is already leading the team in targets and touches, but with Alshon Jeffery out, those numbers are going to go through the roof this week at home. The Raiders are still an overall below-average defense and will be susceptible to the run and the pass. Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson will be owned more, but Forte carries just as much upside.

Arian Foster – HOU at ATL – $7,000
As of now, Arian Foster is considered a game-time decision. If he is deemed active on Sunday, please make sure your roster him. He is going to be criminally under-owned this week vs. a Falcons’ defense that has allowed an average of twelve receptions per week thus far. Foster is a complete back who comes with elite patience and vision when getting the rock. If/when Foster is active on Sunday, most of the public will already have constructed their lineups and will be gun shy on pulling the trigger as they have doubts about his workload. The Texans have publicly stated that they will bring him back when he is ready for the entire workload. That being said, if he is active, expect an enormous day out of Arian Foster.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans – CAR at TB – $6,400
Mike Evans? Amari Cooper is better and is $100 less,” you’d say. Let the fish keep swimming in the sea while you eat like a shark this Sunday. Amari Cooper is going to be extremely high-owned this week and with Evans being $100 more, I expect most of public to drift towards Cooper. Last week was Evans first full workload of the 2015 season, and it brought plenty of good signs. Josh Norman will likely shadow Evans, but that won’t be enough to stop the big-time playmaker. Evans will lead the team in targets this week and has just as much upside as any WR1 in Week 4.

Brandin Cooks – DAL at NO – $6,100
Like always, I will have a correlation play between my starting QB and at least one WR. Brandin Cooks is coming in at a discount due to a subpar start to the season. Drew Brees is back in action and will look to his favorite target often in a premier game at home. Brees has never disappointed under the spotlight at home, and I don’t expect the depleted Cowboys secondary to have an answer for Cooks’ speed and elite route running. Cooks comes in as a player with negative recency bias and will be underowned this week.

Percy Harvin – NYG at BUF – $4,600
Karlos Williams is projected to be the most owned player this week throughout the NFL DFS industry. If that’s the case, most will focus on rostering Williams and won’t hedge their bet with Percy Harvin. Sammy Watkins will most likely be inactive this week, giving Harvin more opportunities than he has already had. He will lead the team in targets and should garnish a few carries on the ground as well. For $4,600, he becomes an easy plug and play this week.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph – MIN at DEN – $3,200
Kyle Rudolph should be fewer than 3% owned, but why? He leads the Vikings in targets, and he is a huge end zone threat. I am extremely confident in this contrarian pick with the cornerbacks shadowing Charles Johnson and Mike Wallace, and the Broncos loading the box to stop Adrian Peterson. I understand that the Broncos’ defense has been stout thus far, but I like Rudolph’s floor and ceiling this week regardless of game flow. If you need a cheap TE this week, I urge you to take a shot on Kyle Rudolph.

Flex

Carlos Hyde – GB at SF – $5,100
Remember that one time Carlos Hyde went off at home in San Francisco? Well, that performance drove his ownership through the roof in Week 2 and was pretty strong in Week 3. After two disappointing weeks, facing the high-profile Packers, Carlos Hyde will yet again become a buy-low candidate just like Week 1. After the 49ers’ debacle last week, I fully expect them to make an effort of keeping the ball on the ground. There are plenty of other RBs in the same salary neighborhood, make sure you have multiple shares of Mr. Hyde this week.

Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo Bills DST – NYG at BUF – $3,000
Rex Ryan is going to have his top-notch defense dialed in this week at home vs. the Giants. The Bills just might be a chalk pick this week, but if I’m going chalk, it’s going to be at the D/ST position. Last week I knew the Seahawks were going to be chalk, which they were, coming with a 30% ownership but the floor/ceiling was too good to pass up. I don’t expect the Bills to be the highest owned with the Seahawks, Broncos and Cardinals also playing at home. If you want to pivot off any of those popular plays, my contrarian D/ST is the Chargers in Week 4.

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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.

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