There’s no better tight end option this week than the elite Rob Gronkowski

Vegas currently have the Chiefs, Falcons, Ravens, Packers and Giants being heavy favorites this weekend. The Patriots have the highest projected score (28.5) with the Packers and Falcons right behind them (27.8). There are five teams that have a projected score less than 19 points (Raiders, Browns, Rams, Bears and 49ers). The spreads range from -9.5 to -1. Vegas spreads and totals are a useful tool when trying to project game flow, which will help you project what players to target at each position.

Week 4 wasn’t kind to me and the public has responded to that. More times than not, my lineups will provide plenty of success. I will continue building lineups with my weekly model and stick to the game plan that has given me success in the DFS industry. Week 4 wasn’t effective enough for us to profit and I take full blame for that. This article will feature players that should be under-owned, providing a high ceiling with 4-5X upside. If you look back to Week 2 and 3, you will notice my lineups had a ton of success, averaging over 200 points.

DraftKings Week 4 Millionaire Maker only scored 200 points, which was 100 points less than the Millionaire Maker in Week 3. Continue to target players that can provide 4-5X value who can give you a ceiling around 225-250 points. I will be rolling out multiple lineups in the DraftKings NFL Millionaire Maker this week. Here is one of the lineups that I will be using, with insight as to why you should target these players. After the negative publicity I received for my Week 4 article, I will include every player that cracks my model. These players will be listed under “other notables” as options you should feel free to use. Some of the big name superstars won’t be listed, due to ownership, pricing, game flow and expected value. There are many variables I take into account before constructing my model for each week, allowing me to eliminate players I choose not to target.

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Quarterback

Philip Rivers – SD vs. PIT – $6,200
Philip Rivers comes in as my third highest projected QB this week behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Given Rivers’ significant price break, he grades out as my favorite QB in Week 5. Rivers is playing at home vs. the pass friendly Steelers defense. The game is being played on MNF, which usually helps bring down the ownership of players. The Steelers currently rank 18th against QBs while allowing 232.8 PaYd/G. Rivers is having a tremendous season thus far, averaging 312 PaYd with two touchdowns per game.

Other Notables

• Aaron Rodgers – STL at GB – $7,900
• Tom Brady – NE at DAL – $7,800
• Peyton Manning – DEN at OAK – $7,000
• Eli Manning – SF at NYG – $6,800
• Matt Ryan – WAS at ATL – $6,700
• Sam Bradford – NO at PHI – $6,000
• Matthew Stafford – ARI at DET – $5,400
• Jay Cutler – CHI at KC – $5,300

Running Backs

Justin Forsett – BAL vs. CLE – $5,800
Justin Forsett’s time is now. Steve Smith is projected to be out this Sunday (back), leaving a ton of targets (11.75 Tar/G) on the table for other positional players on the Ravens’ roster. Forsett carried the ball 27 times last week for 150 RuYds. What stood out to me was Forsett having zero receptions with only one target. That number isn’t sustainable, as OC Marc Trestman will look to get Forsett heavily involved in the running and passing game. The Browns have been atrocious thus far vs. RBs, being ranked 27th against them, allowing an enormous 141.5 RuYd/G. There aren’t many weapons on this Ravens’ offense, and I expect them to give Forsett a heavy workload on Sunday.

T.J. Yeldon – JAX at TB – $4,400
One of the most common stats to focus on is touches/targets when playing NFL DFS. For some reason, T.J. Yeldon continues to get overlooked, and his price is very reasonable on DraftKings. Yeldon has a combined total of 84 touches/targets through four weeks, giving him an average of 21 touches/targets per week. Yeldon’s workload is up there with the elite RBs through the first four weeks. If the game script goes accordingly to plan (TB -3), Yeldon will be in for another 20+ touch week. There aren’t many players that cost $4,500 or below with that high of a projected workload.

Other Notables

• Le’Veon Bell – PIT at SD – $8,500
• Jamaal Charles – CHI at KC – $7,800
• Matt Forte – CHI at KC – $7,000
• Mark Ingram – NO at PHI – $6,100
• Carlos Hyde – SF at NYG – $4,900
• Melvin Gordon – PIT at SD – $4,900
• Dion Lewis – NE at DAL – $4,800
• Doug Martin – JAX at TB – $4,700
• Duke Johnson Jr. – CLE at BAL – $4,600
• Chris Thompson – WAS at ATL – $3,300
• Boobie Dixon – BUF at TEN – $3,000

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen – SD vs. PIT – $7,200
If you have been reading my articles, you should know by now that I am very adamant on building a strong correlation. Keenan Allen grades out as a top ten WR in my Week 5 model. Allen is already among the elite WR in regards to TAR/G, and that number should go up this week with Stevie Johnson (hamstring) and Malcom Floyd (concussion) being doubtful this week. Keenan Allen is already averaging more than ten targets per game, and he provides that lovely MNF hammer. If the rest of your lineup comes through, you will wake up on Monday looking forward to a monstrous night from your Rivers/Allen correlation.

Jordan Matthews – PHI vs. NO – $6,400
I’m expecting this to be one of the few weeks that Jordan Matthews goes under-owned. After an abysmal start to the season that came with a ton of hype, the Eagles’ offense has lost a ton of steam. The Saints are currently ranked 25th in the passing game, allowing 276.5 PaYd/G. The Eagles will look to make a statement while building confidence and momentum vs. the putrid Saints’ defense. Matthews is a huge focal point in the Eagles’ offense that leads the team in targets. He is clearly Sam Bradford’s blanket, making Matthews a solid option with a high floor/ceiling.

Golden Tate – DET vs. ARI – $5,200
Golden Tate is the player I will probably have the most exposure to in Week 5. With the Lions being 0-4, their backs are against the wall and are already in must-win mode. Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense seem to stall until they’re pressured to put the pedal to the medal. I expect the Lions to come out aggressive and look to pass the ball often. I have this game being close with the total going over 43.5 projected points.

Other Notables

• Julio Jones – WAS at ATL – $9,200
• Odell Beckham Jr. – SF at NYG – $9,000
• Antonio Brown – PIT at SD – $8,700
• Demaryius Thomas – DEN at OAK – $8,100
• Randall Cobb – STL at GB – $7,500
• Calvin Johnson – ARI at DET – $7,400
• Emmanuel Sanders – DEN at OAK – $7,400
• Julian Edelman – NE at DAL – $7,000
• Alshon Jeffery – CHI at KC – $6,500 (monitor his game-time status)
• Mike Evans – JAX at TB – $6,100
• Brandin Cooks – NO at PHI – $5,900
• Allen Robinson – JAX at TB – $5,500
• Pierre Garcon – WAS at ATL – $5,300
• Tavon Austin – STL at GB – $4,300
• Leonard Hankerson – WAS at ATL – $4,000
• Kamar Aiken – CLE at BAL – $3,800

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski – NE at DAL – $7,500
Rob Gronkowski is coming off a bye week, healthy and hungry as usual. Gronk is only two TDs shy of joining an elite company of TEs with 60 TDs. The Patriots will look to dismantle the wobbly wheels that are the Dallas Cowboys and build on their 3-0 season. Gronkowski always grades out as the top TE in my model and makes for the best play regardless of the contest you’re playing in. If you don’t feel the need to pay $7,500 for Gronk, be my guest and select somebody else, but you’re playing at your own risk.

Other Notables

• Jimmy Graham – SEA at CIN – $6,100
• Travis Kelce – CHI at KC – $5,200
• Martellus Bennett – CHI at KC – $5,000
• Antonio Gates – PIT at SD – $4,200
• Charles Clay – BUF at TEN – $4,100
• Delanie Walker – BUF at TEN – $3,800
• Ladarius Green – PIT at SD – $3,200
• Jared Cook – STL at GB – $3,000
• Zach Ertz – NO at PHI – $2,900
• Owen Daniels – DEN at OAK – $2,700

Flex

Todd Gurley – STL at GB – $4,300
Todd Gurley is carrying that buzz around the industry after a huge second half vs. the Cardinals in Week 4. You can smell the aroma that Gurley is garnering, but you can’t blame us for hyping him up. This is one of a few players I will have exposure to who comes with high ownership. His salary and home run upside have me enthused about Gurley this week. You shouldn’t expect to see him below $5,000 for much longer. The Packers are heavily favored at home, and the game script could get out of hand, leaving Gurley on the sidelines. The rookie certainly makes for a high risk, high reward player this week. If you’re not confident in the amount of touches Gurley will get, you should pivot elsewhere.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens – BAL vs. CLE – $2,900
The Baltimore Ravens play at home vs. the befuddled Browns’ offense. The Ravens played on Thursday night in Week 4, giving them an extra amount of time to game plan their scheme vs. the Browns. After an emotional win on the road vs. the Steelers in Week 4, the Baltimore crowd will be fired up and ready to keep the fire lit underneath the Ravens.

Other Notables

• Broncos – DEN at OAK – $3,600
• Bills – BUF at TEN – $3,400
• Chargers – PIT at SD – $3,100
• Bengals – SEA at CIN – $2,800
• Chiefs – CHI at KC – $2,800

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Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.