Will John Brown finally break out in Week 4?
Hopefully, you saw A.J. Green on this list last week, and largely ignored the rest of this article, as going with the herd produced tremendous benefits last week. Tremendous heights were reached in Week 3 in terms of points needed to cash in tournaments, and missteps most likely led to a strong case of the woulda-coulda-shoulda’s. It’s a good time to remind you if you’re new to this, that chalk (consensus plays) are not the enemy of a successful daily fantasy lineup. Think of them as the foundation on which to build successful lineups. Contrarian plays, they’re the flag on top of that foundation. Whether priced high or low, if you want to separate yourself from a large tournament field, you need to correctly identify the lesser used players of the week. Here’s your guide to being an intelligent contrarian this week.
Note: You will find some players on this list in the Washington/Philidelphia game. These recommendations are made under the assumption that the weather will be bad, but not unplayable. You’ll need to stay up to date regarding the elements surrounding that game.
View projected FanDuel ownership levels for every player 
Contrarian Plays of the Week
Drew Brees – QB – $8,400 – 0.1% Projected Ownership
On the surface, things look bleak for the Saints. They’ve limped out to an uninspiring 0-3 start to the 2015 season, highlighted by a survivor pool ruining Week 2 home loss to the Buccaneers. The last memory we have of Brees, battling injury and ineffectiveness in a game in which he was expected to excel.
However, those smart enough to set the lines see this as an aberration, projecting the Saints for 26 points against a Cowboys defense that is currently ranked 21st in DVOA. (For an explanation of DVOA, click here)
It feels like it happened in the days of the eight track, but let’s not forget that Brees torched the Cardinals for 355 yards in Week 1, rumors of his demise seem to be greatly exaggerated. He’s a spendy option, but if Brees is healthy, he’s in a prime spot to be a contrarian week-winner.
Giovani Bernard – RB – $6,700 – 2.9% Projected Ownership
While Marvin Lewis has given a public vote of confidence to the embattled and largely ineffective Jeremy Hill, calling him “the starter,” he may be that only in title. If we take a look at the number thus far this season, Giovanni Bernard has been the one the Bengals have been going to the majority of the time
Starting off with a 44% snap share in Week 1, Bernard has taken over 60% of the Bengals offensive snaps in weeks two and three. On the year, It’s a 60/40 split between Bernard and Hill, with Bernard getting the bigger half of the backfield wishbone. This could be a function of the Bengals being behind, but it looks like the Bengals offense functions better when Bernard is on the field.
Though it’s just a three-week sample, on a per-drive basis, the Bengals are the 7th highest scoring offense in the NFL. During this mini-resurgence, Bernand is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 41 attempts. If advanced metrics are more your speed, Bernard has produced the 6th most yards over replacement of anyone in the NFL thus far.
The scary thing about Bernard is that he may just be getting started. He hasn’t broken free on a reception yet, turning his 12 receptions into only 75 yards. In fact, he’s only averaging 0.6 yards more per catch (6.3 yards) than he is per carry. With Bernard’s explosive nature, this is bound for regression upward towards his career 8.5 YPC mark.
With his role as a passing back solidified, and his share of the rushing pie expanding, you can do much worse than buying high on a possible breakout in the Bernard Dog.
T.J. Yeldon – RB – $6,400 – 1.6% Projected Ownership
Well, let’s scratch that noise about efficiency, fantasy football is usually a game of who can get the most touches, quality of touch be darned. In that vein, enter T.J. Yeldon.
Yes, he’s terribly inefficient, currently averaging about 27 yards under what would be expected. But dagnabbit, the Jaguars seem heck-bent to keep throwing him out there no matter what.
Consider these fun facts about one T.J Yeldon…
- T.J. Yeldon is 4th on the Jaguars in receptions but is only trailing the Jags leaders (Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns) by three catches.
- T.J Yeldon‘s offensive snap percentage (71.1%) is higher than Melvin Gordon (43.3%), Marshawn Lynch (59.4%), Carlos Hyde (61%), and Adrian Peterson (67.8%).
- T.J Yeldon leads the Jaguars with 48 carries, Denard Robinson, who has the 2nd highest carry total, has six carries.
It’s not a matter of if T.J. Yeldon is going to break out, it’s a matter of when. The volume is going to be there, and the Colts defense is vulnerable against the run, creating a situation for the potential breakout fame for Yeldon the Jags have been trying to manufacture for three weeks.
Pierre Garcon – WR – $6,100 – 1.8% Projected Ownership
As I stated in Week 2, Garcon is discounted due to his less than stellar 2014, but the raw materials needed to get a stew going are there this week.
Despite a meager 5-46-0 line, Garcon was targeted 12 times, good for 10th most among all WRs in a scorching fantasy Week 3. Forget his production for a moment, just remember that Garcon through three weeks is being targeted more than players such as Vincent Jackson and Davante Adams. The lifeblood for massive fantasy weeks is there, now it’s just up to Garcon and Kirk Cousins to find a connection. I would recommend Garcon for a gutsy cash game play, and also in GPP’s as the field seems to have moved towards higher priced WRs after the Week 3 explosion. Speaking of targets…
Jarvis Landry – WR – $7,200 – 1.8% Projected Ownership
Heavily targeted (35 on the year), Landy usually profiles as a solid cash game investment, but this week he takes a turn on the GPP circuit.
While well meaning, the fantasy football consensus typically thinks that a team’s top WR is going to draw the top CB of the opposing team. This may be true in most instances, as a prototype X WR such as Calvin Johnson is going to draw the opposition’s top boundary CB on most snaps. Everything changes with a slot WR such as Landry.
Per Pro Football Focus, Landry runs 73.3% of his snaps out of the slot WR position, allowing for a free release on most plays. To counter, the opposition is going to play a smaller, but more agile CB on Landry, which this week is going to be Buster Skrine. While a good CB in his own right, Skrine is no Revis.
While either DeVante Parker or Rishard Matthews is going to be stuck on Revis Island, Landry has a manageable matchup against Skrine this week. In addition to his relatively advantageous matchup, the Dolphins seem committed to making Landry their No. 1 WR everywhere on the field, as he leads the team in red zone targets. Take advantage of a matchup that is only difficult on the surface level and get Landy in your lineups.
John Brown – WR – $5,800 – 1% Projected Ownership
Where have you gone, John Brown(io), a nation of preseason hype pieces turns its lonely eyes to you, a woo woo woo.
Before you say that the jolting J of 2014 has left and gone away (hey hey hey), let’s take a deeper look at his stat line.
Despite having his target volume dry up (only 17 on the year), Brown dropped a for-sure touchdown pass last week, while also having the misfortune of having a red zone catch end with him being tackled on the two-yard line. Outside of this, Brown has been a silent contributor, drawing the defense in on jet sweeps, and drawing pass interference penalties.
If the Rams decide to take away the streaking Larry Fitzgerald, Brown is going to be the beneficiary. After three weeks of helping his teammates find fantasy goodness, Brown is slated to get a little bit of the fantasy pie he’s been missing for himself in Week 4.
Coby Fleener – TE – $4,900 – 1.3% Projected Ownership
In a Gronkless Week 4, there are myriad of options at TE. With plentiful choices, DFS managers shouldn’t forget about the little-owned Fleener. With Dwayne Allen a game-time decision, Fleener has a very real shot at a tremendous slice of the Indy pie this week against a beatable Jacksonville Defense. Just remember, Fleener went for 4-77-1, 7-144-0, 2-28-0, 4-127-2, and 5-56-2 with Dwayne Allen out in 2014. Although there is turmoil in Indy with Andrew Luck in true danger of missing this week, Fleener’s ceiling and price make him the contrarian option of the week.
San Diego Chargers – DST – $4,400 – 2.7% Projected Ownership
Though the Browns have taken a step forward, they’re still giving away possessions with alarming frequency. They’ve already turned the ball over seven times, 4th most in the NFL thus far. Also, despite having a lauded offensive line, no matter who the Browns have inserted at quarterback, they’ve been under consistent pressure. The Browns have given up ten sacks already on the young season and are graded out as the 6th worst OL in pass protection.
Though the Chargers haven’t been up to the task on defense yet, the Browns on the road is going to be a matchup you want to target this year in DFS.
Also Consider
Sam Bradford – QB – $7,100 – 1% Projected Ownership
His projected ownership is driven down by the fact that he’s been off form the past two games and is facing an improving Washington defense on the road. However, their defense still isn’t far away from a messy 2014. It’s also improbable that the Eagles’ true talent level (fallen from 5th in total yards in 2014 to 31st thus far) has slipped so drastically in the span of a year.
Kirk Cousins – QB – $6,100 – 0.8% Projected Ownership
Another QB coming off of a less than impressive performance, much of what applies to Bradford also applies to Cousins. The Eagles have been improved in pass defense this year in terms of net yards allowed per attempt (12th) but were notoriously bad as of last year (20th in net yards per attempt). Cousins is valuable due to the matchup and only needing 12.2 points to meet value.
C.J. Anderson – RB – $6,900 – 1.1% Projected Ownership
The potential payoff (lead back duties in Denver) outweighs the potential drawbacks (injury driven ineffectiveness) this week for Anderson. A 7 point Vegas favorite, Anderson has a chance to hammer home a W against the Vikings this week. Though he’s been heavily criticized, he’s still leading the Broncos in touches and enters Week 4 with a full week of healthy practice behind him. Though the Vikings have recovered from being gashed by Carlos Hyde in Week 1, they’re still allowing 4.3 yards per carry on the young season. Just remember, RBs on high-scoring offenses may take some time to get going, but you want them when they’re hot.
Jeremy Hill – RB – $6,700 – 1.1% Projected Ownership
A bit of a hedge, but just a reminder that as a whole, the Cincinnati run game has been mighty impressive this year, even with Hill’s struggles. All those impressive things I stated about Cincinnati’s hot start count towards Hill. With the Bengals favored by six points over the Chiefs, Hill could be used to salt the game away. One of these two Bengal RBs is going to make someone very happy this week while the other is going to leave their backers crying in chili, which is quite possibly the most depressing fate of all.
C.J. Spiller – RB – $5,500 – 0.4% Projected Ownership
Deemed 100% healthy by the coaching staff this week, look for Spiller to start making his presence felt. With Drew Brees returning, look for the offensive quality to take a step up, and Spiller could very well be leading the charge. There were flashes of the old Saints offense last week against the Panthers smothering stop-unit, and look for the Saints to march with the difficulty settings turned down against the Cowboys defense.
Allen Hurns – WR – $5,300 – 1% Projected Ownership
With Vontae Davis looking to stick with Allen Robinson (a boundary CB vs an X WR) all day, Hurns could be the beneficiary of some sneaky value. Percy Harvin and Eric Decker have benefitted from their advantageous assignments against the Colts lesser outside CBs, and Kendall Wright had a huge Week 3 working primarily from the slot, avoiding Davis.
Brandin Cooks – WR – $7,000 – 0.5% Projected Ownership
Much like John Brown, Cooks is a second-year offseason darling that hasn’t produced to expectations in 2015. While he hasn’t been the target monster forecasted in the offseason, he’s still leading the Saints in targets with 23 and hasn’t seen fewer than seven in a game yet. He’s simply too talented to be this quiet for long; you’re going to want him on your DFS rosters for his inevitable coming out party. Against a beatable Cowboys defense, it could be scheduled for this week.
Terrance Williams– WR – $5,900 – 1.4% Projected Ownership
Erased by the emerging Desmond Trufant, Williams wasn’t even targeted in the Cowboys Week 3 loss. This week, things have changed, and Williams draws the imminently roastable Saints secondary this week. With no one of Trufant’s caliber to cover him, look for Williams to return to the form he showed in the seasons’ first two weeks.
Jordan Cameron – TE – $5,300 – 0.4% Projected Ownership
A questionable tag and an early draw leave Cameron underutilized this week. Expected to play, Cameron drew eight targets last week with the same questionable label. He hasn’t had the breakthrough game expected of him yet, but with the Dolphins looking to use ancillary options this week against the Jets, Cameron could swing the week for you.
Eric Ebron – TE – $5,100 – 1.9% Projected Ownership
The signs of a potential breakout are there for the 2014 first-round pick. With 20 targets through three weeks, Ebron has become the 3rd option the Lions drafted him to become. While the Seahawks defense is a daunting task, especially for a team on the road, they’ve been beaten by athletic TEs like Ebron in the past. 2015 has been more of the same, as they’re still giving up points to opposing TEs at a startling rate. Ebron is a high-risk, high-reward TE.
Atlanta Falcons – DST – $4,200 – 3.4% Projected ownership
Ryan Mallet is both inaccurate and on the road. The Falcons have shown to be an improved defense and are playing at home. This is a prime forecast for turnovers, and lots of them. They’re a high-risk option, but the potential for reward is very real.
Check out our free FanDuel Lineup Optimizer
Brian Tesch is a correspondent at FantasyPros. Check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @TheRealTesch.
