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Fantasy Baseball: 2015 Season Wrap Up – Starting Pitcher

Fantasy Baseball: 2015 Season Wrap Up – Starting Pitcher
Amazing seasons like this are par for the course for Clayton Kershaw

Amazing seasons like this are par for the course for Clayton Kershaw

MVP: Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw was such a dominant force in the strikeout department that he got the nod over several deserving candidates, most notably teammate Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta. Kershaw lagged behind the pair in wins and ERA but was still a very positive asset in those categories.

Next year, Kershaw may not be the No. 1 pitcher off the board, but he should be because what we have seen from Kershaw this season is the norm. The magical years of Arrieta and Greinke were just that — magical — and won’t be repeated next year.

Best Surprise: Jake Arrieta

Arrieta followed up his breakout 2014 season with a Cy Young-worthy 2015. His second-half and playoff performance have been viewed as one of the best stretches of pitching in the history of the game. He used a sinker-slider combo that gave him an elite GB + K% (83.3%). Due to this volume of groundballs, it is necessary that Arrieta keeps his soft contact rate extremely low (the fourth-lowest among all qualified pitchers this year) to avoid an increase in his WHIP.

He posted the third-best BABIP among all qualified pitchers in the majors, and that’s due for some regression next season. Given that it is almost certain he will not be as good next year, he will be a top-tier pitcher even if he takes a step back.

Biggest Bust: Jeff Samardzija

Nothing went right for Samardzija after receiving a fat paycheck from the White Sox in the offseason. Most worrisome for Samardzija was his loss in velocity as his fastball, sinker, slider, and splitter all lost around one mile per hour of velocity from last season.

The result was that each of these pitches was less effective than they were in 2014. Given Samardzija’s relatively advanced age, I’m unwilling to bet on a rebound to 2014 velocity levels and will be shying away from drafting him next year, unless he slips in drafts dramatically.

Player to Watch Entering 2016: Marco Estrada

Marco Estrada was a homer-prone pitcher entering the 2015 season, and given his move to Toronto, there was little optimism for that to improve. While he still was homer prone in comparison to most fantasy viable pitchers, he managed to keep the ball in the yard at a record rate for his career. The result was a fantastic ERA and WHIP.

Underlying data wasn’t as friendly, however, as batters made more contact off of Estrada, and a .216 BABIP will be due for correction next season. Due to a low strikeout rate, it is debatable whether Estrada will be fantasy relevant at all next season, and he will not find his way onto any rosters of mine.

Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive or follow him @danmarcus3

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