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Fantasy Outlook: James Harden

Fantasy Outlook: James Harden
Will a reduction in volume even hurt James Harden's value?

Will a reduction in volume even hurt James Harden’s value?

James Harden took a step forward last year, from being a good scorer to an elite scorer. He enters the season as a consensus top-five fantasy pick, but it’s time to pick apart Harden’s fantasy value.

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What We Know

Last year, Harden had the ball in his hands an average of 5.898 seconds per touch. That’s up by well over one second per game over the 2013-2014 season and third most among players who had at least 300 hundred shots on the season. The result was a career-high in points, shots per game, three-pointers made per game and assists. In other words, Harden had a career year in nearly every fantasy relevant category. The only bad news for Harden’s increased workload was also an increase in turnovers, which in nine category and points leagues was a detriment to his overall value. When boiled down, however, it was a career year on the offensive end for Harden.

He also improved his counting stats in fantasy relevant defensive statistics, as he posted career highs in nearly every defensive category as well including his per game rebounds, steals and blocks.

What to Look For in 2015-2016

Harden as an individual player is one of the best in the NBA and for fantasy purposes. The Rockets did make some moves in the offseason, giving the team around him a new look. The biggest addition was Ty Lawson, and his addition could bring mixed results for Harden’s fantasy value. When approaching Lawson’s addition with a glass half empty approach, it must be noted that he is nearly as dominant on the ball as Harden. In fact, he averaged handling the ball for 5.45 seconds per touch last season and for five seconds per touch in the 2013-2014 season. While it is unclear whether last year’s incumbent starting point guard Patrick Beverley or Lawson will start, Lawson will clearly have a large role with the team. In comparison, Beverley is much less dominant in terms of ball possession.

When looking at the addition of Lawson positively, there is no doubt that Lawson is a much more dynamic player than Beverley. His addition will take some of the burden off of Harden to create offense by himself, which he felt nearly every game last season. His efficiency was already quite good, he was top-20 league wide in true shooting percentage, player efficiency rating and usage rate, but it should get even better with the lessened pressure. SB Nation did a nice job of breaking down how the 1/2 pick and roll, presumably with Lawson and Harden respectively, will work with the addition of Lawson. Overall, I’ll bet on talent working together and view this as a positive for Harden’s already incredible fantasy value.

2015-2016 Outlook

With all this conjecture, the reality is you want Harden on your team and would be thrilled to take him starting anywhere from the third overall pick onward. His assists will almost certainly take a drop due to less ball handling. This will also cause him to get to the free-throw line less though he should still be there plenty and provide an elite free-throw percentage. The offensive burden on Harden’s shoulders should lessen this season, which will help his shooting percentage and make him more efficient. Overall, his contributions may come in different places but he will provide elite points per game with at least five assists, five rebounds and over two 3-pointers made per game. Defensive effort is always a question with Harden, but you can count on at least 1.5 steals per game.

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Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive or follow him @danmarcus3

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