Trading for Alshon Jeffery before he suits up this Sunday might be a wise move

With Week 4 in the books, we are now a quarter of the way through the 2015 fantasy football season. Every year around this time there are players that overachieve and underachieve. Now is the perfect time to pull off a trade by selling high on players that have over performed and buying low on players that should be in the upper echelon, but have underachieved. In the majority of instances, players will regress towards the mean. This means that players currently overachieving could potentially have some lackluster performances that bring them back down to Earth. Likewise, players that are underachieving are due for some explosive performances. Let’s take a look at some great buy low/sell high candidates.

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Buy Low

Andrew Luck (QB, Colts)
To say that Andrew Luck is off to a slow start would be an understatement. The three-time Pro Bowl quarterback currently ranks 29^th in completion percentage (56.0%), 26^th in yards per attempt (6.5) and 34^th in quarterback rating (65.1). All of these numbers are below his career average. To be fair, Luck has been dealing with a shoulder injury and sat out in Weeks 4 & 5. I have noticed while answering sit/start questions on Twitter that Luck owners are beginning to grow impatient since people have been asking whether or not to sit Luck over a much less attractive option. With the weapons that he has surrounding him, I strongly believe that he will bounce back and still finish the season as a top ten quarterback. You should buy low on him now before he has one great game.

Marshawn Lynch (RB, Seahawks)
Here is another disappointing player that has been bitten by the injury bug. Lynch came out of the game early in Week 3 against the Bears and sat out Week 4 against the Lions with a hamstring strain. Before these two games, Lynch has not missed a game since the 2011 season and has been one of the most consistent running backs over that time span. Again, I have noticed people on Twitter begin to panic by asking numerous times if they should trade Lynch away, and I think that would be foolish since the Seahawks are such a run heavy offense. Lynch will bounce back once completely healthy and is a perfect candidate to buy low on right now.

Lamar Miller (RB, Dolphins)
Miller is currently ranked 51^st in fantasy points scored for running backs this season, which is a steep decline from his top-10 finish last season. I believe that the lack of success from Miller and the Dolphins offense overall can be attributed to the lack of control that former head coach Joe Philbin had over his team. This kind of thing happens every year.  Players lose respect for the coach, and it tends to translate into negative performances on the field. I believe the Dolphins’ coaching change will be enough for the Dolphins’ offense to turn it around. This should result in Miller performing more like he did in 2014 and makes him a great buy low candidate.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, Bears)
Jeffery is currently battling through a hamstring injury that has caused him to miss the past two games. He is expected to return this week in a plus matchup against a weak Chiefs secondary. I think people tend to forget that Jeffery posted WR1 numbers in 2014. There’s no reason to believe he will not do that again once he returns since he will get plenty of targets from Jay Cutler. Buy low on him now before he has a great game this weekend.

Calvin Johnson (WR, Lions)
Megatron is currently ranked 38^th in fantasy points scored by wide receivers. There’s no question that he is no longer a top-tier wide receiver. However, he shouldn’t be this far off from being a borderline WR1. The good news is he is still getting plenty of targets (45) and after this week’s matchup against the Cardinals it gets much easier. I strongly believe that he will be a top-15 wide receiver by the end of the season, making him the perfect buy low candidate right now.

Sell High

Tyrod Taylor (QB, Bills)
Taylor has been a pleasant surprise through four weeks of the 2015 season, ranking sixth in fantasy points scored for quarterbacks. I don’t think the drop off for Taylor will be as significant as others on this list. But I do think it will be difficult for him to remain as a top ten quarterback for the remainder of the season. Unless you drafted Tony Romo or Ben Roethlisberger, you may very well already have another quarterback on the roster who is projected to outscore Taylor the rest of the season. If you are a Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees or Luck owner, you should consider shopping Taylor to upgrade a position of weakness on your roster.

Devonta Freeman (RB, Falcons)
Freeman has taken advantage of his time starting while Tevin Coleman has sat out with a rib injury the last two weeks. In the last two weeks, Freeman has scored a ridiculous 70.2 fantasy points in standard leagues and ranks first at the position with 86.8 points on the season. While Freeman has earned a larger role in the Falcons’ offense, Coleman is not just going to go away when he returns this week. Coleman (3.9 YPC) has actually been slightly more productive than Freeman (3.8 YPC), albeit with fewer carries. Going forward, I expect there to be a 60/40 split in favor of Freeman, which means we should see a drop-off in fantasy production. Trade him now while his value is through the roof.

Dion Lewis/LeGarrette Blount (RBs, Patriots)
Unless you have been living under a rock the last few seasons, you surely have realized how unpredictable Bill Belichick has been with his running backs. It appears there is a possibility this could occur again this season with Lewis and Blount. Through three games, Lewis has been the starter and has been productive (4.9 YPC), but Blount is getting the goal line carries and the touchdowns. It would be wise to shop both of these guys while their value is pretty high and save yourself from the headaches that will occur.

Travis Benjamin (WR, Browns)
Benjamin has surprisingly scored the ninth-most fantasy points this season for wide receivers. However 77% of his fantasy points (46.8 points) have come from just five plays. Benjamin has touchdowns of 54 yards, 60 yards, 78 yards (punt return), 50 yards and four yards. This output is too boom-or-bust to expect the rest of the season. Therefore, you should shop him now while his value is still high.

Rishard Matthews (WR, Dolphins)
Matthews has had a productive start to the 2015 season ranking 13^th in fantasy points scored for wide receivers. With that being said, I believe a decline in production is likely to occur eventually since DeVante Parker is becoming healthy. In three out of the four weeks, Matthews has seen a decrease in offensive snaps while Parker has seen an increase. Now I know that Parker did not look good at all last week, but you have to believe that the Dolphins will continue to increase the usage of their 2015 first round draft pick eventually. I believe that Matthews’ decline will be more gradual than others mentioned; therefore it’s not as crucial to shop him immediately. With that being said, if he’s currently just sitting on your bench consider packaging him in a trade for one the buy low candidates now.

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Kaz Kalita is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can find more of Kaz’s work at DraftStars.net and you can follow him @draftstars_kaz.