Will Antonio Brown continue to struggle with Michael Vick under center?

Week 4 is in the books and this week more than a lot of other weeks there were disappointments across the board. Many of the receiver “studs” wound up as duds. Here are some of the low-lights below:

The group above totaled no touchdowns and very little production in general, averaging 4.9 standard fantasy points (10.9 PPR). DeAndre Hopkins was the only WR ranked in the top 10 to finish there, as the others made way for the likes of Allen Hurns, Leonard Hankerson, Tavon Austin, and Kenny Stills. Changing of the guard? Probably not. Let’s not write these guys off after one week, but this supports that matchups, game flow, and a team’s situation mean as much sometimes as a player’s skill level.

As I say every week, there are going to be must-start players who bomb. Subsequently, there are players who will blow up but were under the radar. For this reason, we’ll take a closer look at one overvalued player and one undervalued player per position.

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Week 4 Recap

First let’s look back at last week’s predictions. For those ready to write this article off after the Maxx Williams educated guess completely bombed, I went 6-1 the rest of the way.

For the overvalued players, Michael Vick (QB25) performed under his QB16 rank as the Steelers offense could get nothing going in the air. Jeremy Hill (RB2) exploded back on the scene with a three-touchdown game, exceeding his RB15 ranking. Jordan Matthews, inexplicably a WR14 again this week, performed as a WR56 in Week 4. Matthews has now been WR54 and WR56 the last two weeks as the Eagles offense has been a complete mess so far this season. Tyler Eifert still finished as a top 10 tight end but below his TE5 ranking, finishing with 6.9 standard points.

Overvalued projection record so far: 18-3-1

For the undervalued group, we already discussed the legendary myth of Maxx Williams, falling short of his TE21 ranking. For the second straight week, Blake Bortles protected the ball and had an efficient outing, finishing as QB6, far ahead of his QB20 ranking. Ronnie Hillman finished as RB8 thanks to a long touchdown run, not only far ahead of his RB37 rank, but ahead of his counterpart, 32^nd ranked C.J. Anderson. The biggest bang for your buck whether it was a bye week fill in, a DFS slot, or on a complete whim, Allen Hurns, who was ranked WR36 going into the week finished off as WR3 thanks to an 11/116/1 game as the Jaguars lost in overtime to the Colts.

Undervalued projection record so far: 10-10-2

Week 5 Projections

Week 5 is upon us, and the number of teams on bye has doubled from two to four as the Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, and Vikings are all off this week. The good news? No Jonathan Stewart or Lamar Miller to frustrate you. The bad news? You’ll need to find a replacement for Chris Ivory, Cam Newton, Jarvis Landry, and Adrian Peterson. Let’s explore what we have in Week 5 and of course, ask ourselves…

Who is too high? Who is too low?

As always, we will be using our Weekly ECR Rankings as a reference.

Quarterback

Overvalued: Russell Wilson (QB9 at CIN)
The Bengals are 21^st in points allowed to quarterbacks this season and are coming off a game where they kept the Chiefs out of the end zone even though they gave up nearly 500 yards of offense. The Seahawks won on Monday but had very little flow in their offensive game plan, relying on broken plays and scrambling to move the ball. Seattle pass protection was bad as Wilson lost two fumbles in the second half, and the run game has yet to amount to anything. With the Bengals front seven better than the Lions front seven, and this being an early slate road game at a very tough place to play, Wilson may not see the success he is projected to see. This all changes if they remember they have some guy named Jimmy Graham on their team.

Undervalued: Alex Smith (QB13 vs CHI)
Like we read above, Alex Smith put up 386 yards and ran for another 25 on the Bengals on the road, so one could only imagine what he can do to the Bears defense at home Sunday. The Bears defense has already allowed 10 touchdown passes, tied for the second most in the league, and do not have the playmakers on that side of the ball to stop Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, and Travis Kelce. Smith could put up top 10 numbers this week whether this game is a blow out or not.

Running Back

Overvalued: Devonta Freeman (RB7 vs WAS)
Washington has given up the least amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed only one touchdown on the ground in their first four games. Freeman has been on a historic roll over the last two weeks, but curb your expectations against this surprising Redskins front seven.

Undervalued: Chris Thompson (RB48 at ATL)
Atlanta has given up the most rushing touchdowns (seven), receptions (42), and targets (50) to opposing running backs this season, and it’s no surprise they give up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The RBBC situation in Washington is now a three-headed monster with Alfred Morris and Matt Jones losing meaningful touches to Thompson. Morris is not as valuable in the passing game and Jones has had trouble securing the football. Thompson has been the most productive and this matchup may prove to be the breakout game he needs to solidify his spot in that backfield.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: Antonio Brown (WR6 at SD)
It makes me sad to write about Brown being overvalued, but after what we saw last week against Baltimore, it’s hard to envision Brown being as productive with Michael Vick as he was with Ben Roethlisberger. Even though they have had almost two weeks to prepare for this game, San Diego gives up the least amount of points to opposing wide receivers, making this matchup not as juicy as it could be if it was Roethlisberger at the helm. Le’Veon Bell will be the focal point of this offensive game plan as the Chargers have actually given up the second most fantasy points to running backs. To make the situation cloudier, Martavis Bryant returns from his suspension this week.

Undervalued: Brandin Cooks (WR26 at PHI)
This could prove to be the matchup fantasy owners need to justify Cooks’ ADP. Cooks has underwhelmed so far this season, largely in part to the ineffectiveness of Drew Brees, but the Eagles have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing receivers this year. Brees looked much better Sunday night against Dallas, but Cooks was still not a focal part of the game plan, which should worry fantasy owners, especially with the emergence of Willie Snead. Cooks needs a good showing and this matchup may prove to be the site for that.

Tight End

Overvalued: Gary Barnidge (TE14 at BAL)
Barnidge might be the first player in this article to end up on both sides of the value coin, but what Oakland was to boosting tight end numbers, Baltimore is the exact opposite. In four games this season, Baltimore has allowed an average of 0.3 points per game to opposing tight ends. In four games, eight catches and 31 yards, including just one catch for one yard in the last two weeks. Stay away from Barnidge this week.

Undervalued: Crockett Gillmore (TE19 vs CLE)
*Editor’s note: Gillmore was ruled out of Sunday’s game after this article was published.
If healthy, Gillmore is a good play this week for a team that will be depending on a bunch of different options with Steve Smith out. The Browns have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends this season so this could be a good match up for the six-foot-six Gillmore.

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Trends to Monitor

Look for Peyton Manning and C.J. Anderson to get on track this week against Oakland. Since joining Denver in 2012, Manning has a 6-0 record against the Raiders with has 16 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. He didn’t manage a touchdown in the season finale against the Raiders last year, but Anderson did, scoring three times on the ground. In the two games last year, Anderson went over 100 total yards both times and also added a receiving touchdown. If you bought low on Peyton or C.J. after the slow starts, rejoice.

Last time Tom Brady and the Patriots went to Dallas it was during their 16-0 2007 season. In that game, Brady threw five touchdowns and no interceptions. In his career, Brady is 3-0 against Dallas. Dion Lewis has taken the league by storm so far this season as the shiny new pass-catching runner out of the backfield for Bill Belichick. Look for that to continue this week as Dallas has been roasted by opposing teams’ receiving running backs to the tune of 32 receptions for 333 yards and a touchdown. They haven’t exactly stopped teams on the ground either, allowing 322 yards and five rushing scores, which can mean some dart-throw points for LeGarrette Blount.

Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere