Can Jameis Winston rebound to be a QB1 in Week 5?
Yikes! Week 4 turned into a QB1 nightmare of sorts. I am almost ashamed to call myself a fantasy football writer. My wife even asked me after this past week’s performance if there was any logic or reasoning to making these sort of predictions.
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Week 4 Recap
Here were the top 12 QBs in order of standard scoring: (4 pts. per passing TD)
Predictions
- Aaron Rodgers – GB
- Andy Dalton – CIN
- Matt Ryan – ATL
- Tyrod Taylor – BUF
- Cam Newton – CAR
- Peyton Manning – DEN
- Andrew Luck (DNP*) – IND
- Derek Carr – OAK
- Joe Flacco – BAL
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – NYJ
- Colin Kaepernick – SF
- Blake Bortles – JAC
Actual
- Philip Rivers – SD
- Sam Bradford – PHI
- Drew Brees – NO
- Josh McCown – CLE
- Kirk Cousins – WSH
- Blake Bortles – JAC
- Nick Foles – STL
- Andy Dalton – CIN
- Eli Manning – NYG
- Alex Smith – KC
- Brian Hoyer – HOU
- Jay Cutler – CHI
Wow what a complete bloodbath among my predictions and among experts across the board. I found not one writer who had Cousins, McCown, Foles, Smith, and Hoyer among their top 12 QBs. It was downright humbling for me as well as many writers who consider themselves “experts.”
Week 5 QB1 Predictions
In our fifth weekly installment of The QB Primer, we look at the varying tiers of quarterbacks, assessing risk, home/away matchups, and realizing each week will have a bit of spontaneity. Remember this isn’t predicting order, simply identifying who is likely to be among the top 12.
(These rankings do not include Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater and Cam Newton, all of whom are on byes for Week 5)
Four-Sures
Tom Brady (@ DAL)
After a Week 4 bye, “Tom Terrific” gets a scintillating matchup against a Cowboys team who was beaten by a pass-heavy offense in the Saints. Brady was a QB1 twice in three weeks and I expect much of the same as Bill Belichick continues to go full throttle to make a mockery of the rest of the league. So far, no one has been able to contain Rob Gronkowski, and Julian Edelman has been a target monster. I like Brady for 280+ yards and 3 TDs.
Philip Rivers (vs. PIT)
Rivers was the No. 1 QB last week as he threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns, adding to his league-leading total of 1,248 passing yards. His Chargers will play at home with the return of Rivers’ favorite target, Antonio Gates. The Steelers have been torched on the road this season with a secondary that is questionable at best. I like Rivers to reconnect with Gates and hit 300 yards again.
Matt Ryan (vs. WAS)
Ryan’s numbers dipped a bit last week due to Devonta Freeman’s breakout as well as resting during the second half of the blowout over the Texans. Julio Jones was also involved in a limited basis, something that will definitely change facing the Redskins at home. Through four weeks, Ryan is on pace for 24 touchdowns, a number that could increase with a multiple TD performance this week. Shoot for 260+ yards and 2 TDs.
Eli Manning (vs. SF)
After surprisingly taking down the Bills on the road, Manning gets to face a poor 49ers pass defense in a tasty matchup. They’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Manning, on the other hand, is heating up. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight games and limited his turnovers to just one interception. Expect more of the same in Sunday’s primetime matchup with Manning throwing for 2 TDs and 260+ yards.
Com-Four-table
Jay Cutler (@ KC)
For my “start of the week,” Jay Cutler takes on the Kansas City Chiefs, the defense which has given up the most fantasy points to the quarterback position. After returning from his hamstring injury, Cutler was efficient in finding Martellus Bennett regularly and carrying the Bears to their first win of the season. With Alshon Jeffrey expected to return this week, Cutler is an underrated streamer available in most leagues. I’m projecting 270+ yards and 2 TDs with the always consistent once-a-game dumbfounding Cutler interception.
Peyton Manning (@ OAK)
Although he’s looked like a shell of his former self, you have to like the matchup this week against a Raiders defense allowing over 300 passing yards a game and the fifth most points to quarterbacks. He still throws the occasional duck, as he’s been intercepted every single game of the year. If you’ve been holding back or having thoughts of benching Manning, this is the week to sign up one more time. He’s good for 250+ yards and 2 TDs.
Carson Palmer (@ DET)
Palmer ran into a stingy Rams defense last week as the Cardinals lost for the first time all year. He did have his most passing yards (352), something that has felt capped through the first three games. The Arizona passing attack should find plenty of open space against a Lions defense that is giving up 271.5 yards passing in the first four weeks of the season. Palmer is on pace for 40 TDs and 12 interceptions on the year and can be counted on once again for QB1 numbers.
Tyrod Taylor (@ TEN)
Taylor has been the hardest guy to get behind this year. Every week I select him as a dud, he’s a stud. And every week I think he’s a QB1, he ends up middle of the pack. This week I’m going to rely on his legs to produce as he has a banged up core of offensive players (LeSean McCoy, Karlos Williams and Sammy Watkins) that might not return to action. He has found some chemistry with TE Charles Clay and can still produce to the tune of 250 yards passing, 50 yards rushing and two combined TDs.
Last Four In
Sam Bradford (vs. NO)
Bradford is one of the hardest players to project because his offense is predicated so much on the run. Last week against the Redskins, he passed for 270 yards and three touchdowns in a comeback attempt. New Orleans has allowed the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks thus far and this matchup has the makings of being a barnburner. If the Eagles can once again step up their pace and find Bradford 35-to-40 opportunities to pass, I like his chances of repeating as a QB1. Expect 250+ yards and 2 TDs.
Drew Brees (@ PHI)
After winning NFC Offensive Player of the Week by throwing for 359 yards and two TDs, Brees looks like he’s over his shoulder issue, or at least able to make up for it in the short passing game. He faces an Eagles defense which is tough against the run but is allowing 276.5 passing yards per game this season. This is a plus matchup and one in which fantasy owners should be starting Brees with confidence, although his weapons seem to be a bit uninspiring (Willie Snead and Josh Hill anyone?). Count on Brees for 300+ yards and 2 TDs.
Jameis Winston (vs. JAX)
My “contrarian start of the week” and one I can understand if I’m about to get a lot of slack for. Winston looked horrendous last week with four interceptions, but I expect him to bounce back against a Jaguars secondary that’s allowed 279 passing yards per game. In a matchup at home, I like Mike Evans to have a coming out party and combine with Vincent Jackson to give the Bucs some legit down-the-field plays, the one part of Winston’s game he excels at. It could get ugly, but I’m projecting QB1 numbers this week from Winston to the tune of 260+ yards, 2 TDs and at least one interception.
Blake Bortles (@ TB)
Two volatile QBs putting up QB1 numbers in the same game? Yes I’m rolling the dice again on Bortles, who paid off last week against the Colts with 298 yards passing on 50 attempts and added 31 yards rushing. It certainly isn’t always pretty as he completed just 56 percent of his passes. However, this is a play based on volume and opportunity as the Bucs allow the 11th most points to QBs. I like Bortles to repeat with 260+ yards, 1 TD and 40 yards rushing.
Four-Get About It
Derek Carr (vs. DEN)
One of this season’s best waiver-wire QB pickups will face the stingiest defense in football, as the Broncos lead the league with 18 sacks and have given up the fewest points to opposing QBs. Apart from being embarrassed Week 1 against the Bengals, Carr has yet to face a pass rush as fierce as the Broncos. The only forseeable way Carr could get to QB1 numbers is through sheer volume if the Raiders abandon the run early. Instead of us trying to predict game flow, keep Carr on the bench for this week.
Andy Dalton (vs. SEA)
All good things have to come to an end, especially in fantasy. Through four weeks, Dalton is on pace for 36 TDs and only four interceptions, a number that will surely increase in time. A matchup with the Seahawks is a train wreck waiting to happen for Dalton, as Seattle has allowed the third fewest points per game to QBs this season. He does have multiple weapons to choose from, as the Bengals are still undefeated and powerful on offense. However, don’t be expecting QB1 numbers this week.
Russell Wilson (@ CIN)
In a controversial Week 4 win over the Lions, Wilson passed for a season-high 287 yards and a touchdown. Although the Bengals defense is allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (279.0), Wilson simply does not have the offensive weapons to put a dent in approaching those numbers consistently. If Marshawn Lynch is out again, I find it hard to trust Wilson on the road apart from his rushing numbers.
Aaron Rodgers (vs. STL)
I understand that this is quite opposite most fantasy pundits, but I’m not here to simply shake your hand if you have Mr. QB1. I’m here to give you real advice. Although I’m not advising you to bench Rodgers in favor of another option, you should simply temper your expectations heading into this week. He faces a Rams defense that has allowed only three touchdown passes while amassing 17 sacks in four games. As the Rams showed last week against the Cardinals, they can slow down any offense.
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Week 3 Percentage: 2/12 = 16.7%
Overall: 44%
Kyle Borgognoni is an MLB and NFL correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyle_borg.
