Andy Dalton has been one of the top QBs in fantasy to start the season
Andy Dalton has gotten off to a fantastic start to the fantasy season and after three weeks is the second highest scoring quarterback in most formats. But is he an option that you can trust for the rest of the year as a top 12 QB?
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Dalton has been a productive fantasy quarterback before. In 2013 he threw for a career high 4,293 yards and 33 TDs. That year he also ran for 183 yards and 2 TDs–good enough for a top 5 finish in overall QB rankings. He followed up that career year with a dud of a season by throwing almost 1,000 yards less and 14 fewer passing TDs.
So what happened this season? Why is he on pace for another solid year? For the first time in a long time, Dalton’s weapons are completely healthy. A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert, Giovani Bernard and Marvin Jones are all healthy. Throw in Jeremy Hill and Mohamed Sanu and Dalton has a lot of different options he can go to this season. Teams can’t just key in on Green with the way Jones has been catching TDs (think of him as the AFC version of James Jones). The Bengals also have a solid 1-2 punch at the running back position, which should start to get on track even more after a couple of weeks of tough matchups to start the season.
Another sign that Dalton may be in for a big year is last week’s performance against an old nemesis, the Baltimore Ravens. He has historically struggled against them, especially when playing in Baltimore, but he had one of his best games in a while with 383 yards passing and 3 TDs. The Ravens normally stack the box and challenge Dalton to beat them through the air, and that is exactly what he did.
One other factor to take into account is Dalton’s upcoming schedule. The Bengals get to face the Steelers and Browns a couple of times (who both have been torched in the passing game recently) and Dalton will also get to face the Cheifs (27th), Bills (30th) and the 49ers (26th) who are all at the bottom of the league in defending the pass.
The one negative to consider with Dalton’s fantasy outlook is his propensity to turn the ball over. He threw his first interception and fumbled the ball for his first two turnovers of the season against the Ravens. So even when he is spectacular, as he was against the Ravens, he can also be a turnover machine. He’s averaged almost 20 turnovers in his previous four seasons.
If you drafted Dalton as a backup QB, you are sitting pretty right now. When you factor in all the injuries to QBs this season, you could do a lot worse than Dalton. He is also surprisingly still available in some leagues, but won’t be for long if he continues at this pace.
If he can minimize the turnovers and his weapons remain healthy, you could be looking at a top 12 finish for Dalton. He’ll be a great matchup play throughout the season and could lead your team into the playoffs. Speaking of playoffs, we know Dalton struggles in the NFL playoffs, but he could be in for a let down game during most championship weeks in fantasy. You might want to bench him when your season on the line when Dalton faces the Broncos in Week 16.
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Hilton Guidry is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Hilton, check out his archive and follow him @fantasygumbo.
