Dion Lewis’ price still hasn’t caught up to his point potential
Whether constructing a cash game lineup or preparing for tournament play, you will need to be able to sort out the value options that are available each week. These plays can arise from a variety of reasons ranging from an injury to simple mispricing. Finding the diamonds in the rough can be the single difference between you and a high-scoring lineup. The NFL regular season is already a quarter complete, which is sad and exciting all wrapped together! Last week’s top value plays included Devonta Freeman, Duke Johnson, Leonard Hankerson, Charles Clay and Martellus Bennett, who all exceeded value. Let’s look to keep things rolling in Week 5.
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Quarterbacks
Alex Smith KC vs. CHI $5,950
Smith threw for 386 yards last week, but he couldn’t find the end zone and has only thrown one TD over the last three games. The Bears have allowed 10 passing touchdowns through four weeks and Smith has a good group of skill players to exploit Chicago’s defense. As a result, I think the touchdown outage changes this week and Smith should easily eclipse his value threshold.
Jameis Winston TB vs. JAX $5,300
The last time I mentioned Winston in the value plays, he registered 20.65 fantasy points, which is the highest scoring output of his young career. I’m embracing the volatility in Week 5 as he faces Jacksonville at home against a defense that has allowed an average of 18.6 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Turnovers have been Winston’s Achilles’ heel, but I think he gets things squared away at home this week. In terms of dollars per projected fantasy point, Winston is the top value this week and a fine tournament play.
Running Backs
Dion Lewis NE @ DAL $4,700
Lewis projects as the eighth highest running back this week but is priced as the 13th most expensive option, which creates some profit potential. Toss in a plus matchup against the Cowboys and there’s plenty of upside to like here in an offense that is leading the league in passing yards.
Doug Martin TB vs. JAX $4,450
While I think there’s tournament upside in teammate Jameis Winston, I believe the Buccaneers will try and renew their emphasis on the running game this week. Martin rushed for 106 yards and a score last week and despite not having the best numbers, he’s looked good again thus far after a rough couple of seasons. The issue for Martin is Tampa Bay having to abandon the running game due to getting behind early, but I think that changes this week in a plus matchup at home.
Ameer Abdullah DET vs. ARI $4,400
Abdullah and the Lions struggled to get anything going on the ground last week against the Seahawks, but that is to be expected these days. The Lions draw a neutral matchup this week against the Cardinals. After seeing Todd Gurley run over this defense last week, I like Abdullah’s upside. The Lions are a mess but Abdullah should see plenty of work, especially if Joique Bell remains on the shelf.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews PHI vs. NO $4,850
Matthews’ price has dropped below the $5k level and this is the perfect time to buy. He’s still the top target in this offense and has seen 38 targets through the first four weeks, which ranks inside the top 20 in the league. The Saints have been pretty good thus far against opposing wide receivers, but the last three opponents haven’t exactly been imposing.
Leonard Hankerson ATL vs. WAS $4,100
Hankerson received a whopping $150 price increase after a 19.3 fantasy point game in Week 4. At this level he still is too cheap to pass up as a value play. After seeing six targets in Week 3, Hankerson saw another eight in Week 4 while hauling in six passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons get another plus matchup at home, so look for the trend of Hankerson being the next option after Julio Jones to continue.
Jamison Crowder WAS @ ATL $4,250
This is a GPP-only play, but one that could likely have low ownership levels. The rookie wide receiver received 12 targets last week after seeing six in Week 3. He registered seven catches for 65 yards against the Eagles in Week 4 and he draws a decent matchup against the Falcons this week. If DeSean Jackson remains out, Crowder should see plenty of involvement in this offense.
Tight Ends
Owen Daniels DEN @ OAK $4,000
The narrative train rolls on as Martellus Bennett put up a big line last week against the Raiders. Now it’s Daniels’ turn to exploit this defense that has allowed 18.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, which is a full five points more than the next team. The risk here is the targets as Peyton Manning has two stud receivers to feed. Daniels has managed to score in each of the past two games, so I’d definitely be sure to have him in at least one of your GPP lineups.
Derek Carrier WAS @ ATL $3,000
Carrier’s value is tied to the status of Jordan Reed, who is dealing with a concussion. With the Redskins utilizing the tight end a lot in their offense, Carrier is a tremendous value at rock bottom price if he draws the start this week.
Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants vs. SF $2,800
The San Francisco 49ers have been an absolute mess this season due to some pretty ugly quarterback play. The Giants and 49ers are polar opposites in terms of their strengths as New York has been strong against the run while struggling versus the pass. I’m going to side with the Giants as Colin Kaepernick shouldn’t strike much fear this week.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
