Even against a tough Raiders’ run defense, Matt Forte’s heavy workload makes him a nice pick

Welcome to your Week 4 lineup for FanDuel games. There’s an early game in London that won’t count in a lot of contests. Be sure to keep yourself updated by following @KevinRothWX on Twitter for up-to-the-minute weather information. If any of these picks need to be changed for any reason, I’ll be offering suggestions on my blog, dfsrants.com, on Sunday morning.

I’m building this lineup for the $1 “Squib” GPP, which allows for a single entry. This is my favorite game because it requires a very low cost of entry and every entrant only gets one shot. Don’t get me wrong, I like multi-entry games as well, but I think this is a great game for beginners. Even if you lose you can’t complain about being beat by the multi-entry sharks, your picks just didn’t perform. I’ve played in the Squib twice this year, and I’ve finished in the money both of those times. I didn’t win much, but anytime I finish in the money I’m happy.

My strategy in these games is to build around some players with a high floor and what I think will be lower ownership percentages. I’m also a big fan of stacking a quarterback with a wide receiver. I try to have shares from every group of games (early, afternoon, Sunday night and Monday night). But I don’t let that cloud my judgment and pick a player I think is worse just because they play on Monday night.

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Quarterback

Cam Newton – CAR @ TB – $8,300

I think Newton has an incredibly high floor against the Buccaneers this week. He’s a threat to score as a passer and a rusher. So far this season, the Tampa defense has allowed six touchdown passes and a 100.3 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Newton also benefits from being Carolina’s No. 1 option at the goal line and has a chance to score a quick six points any time the Panthers are deep in the red zone.

Newton has rushed for a touchdown in his last two games against the Bucs. It should be noted those games were in 2013, as he missed both matchups in 2014. But still, the Buccaneers’ defense isn’t scary at all, and there are so many ways Newton can put up points. That makes him my No. 1 option in cash games and other single entry games this week.

Other notables:

• Aaron Rodgers – GB @ SF – $9,200
• Andrew Luck – IND vs. JAC – $9,100
• Russell Wilson – SEA vs. DET – $8,200
• Andy Dalton – CIN vs. KC – $7,600
• Derek Carr – OAK @ CHI – $7,000

Running Back

Matt Forte – CHI vs. OAK – $8,300

Matt Forte IS the Chicago Bears’ offense. He’s tied with Adrian Peterson for second in the NFL with 59 rushing attempts, and he’s been targeted 16 times as a receiver. He’s the type of player who’s going to get work regardless of game flow. The Raiders’ defense is allowing 3.9 yards per rushing attempt and 91.7 yards per game this year. I expect Forte to get plenty of opportunities to score points in a home game for the Bears.

With so many values available at running back this week, I’ve read and heard from multiple analysts that a lot of DFS players will be paying up for receivers. However, they’ll also be making some value picks at the running back position. If you believe this will happen, Forte serves as a nice contrarian pick who could see lower ownership percentages.

Isaiah Crowell – CLE @ SD – $6,400

This second running back is a tough pick for me. There are a lot of value plays like Karlos Williams ($6,300) or Danny Woodhead ($6,100) facing Crowell’s Browns, and both of those are good picks. I think Crowell can be very productive for a similar yet slightly higher price that may keep him from seeing too many lineups. He’s facing a Chargers’ defense that has given up 135.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Crowell has out-carried Duke Johnson Jr. 37 to 23, so there’s a bit of a time share, but Crowell should still see a good amount of the work.

Other notables:

• Jamaal Charles – KC @ CIN – $8,700
• Mark Ingram – NO @ DAL – $8,300
• Eddie Lacy – GB @ SF – $7,800
• Latavius Murray – OAK @ CHI – $7,500
• Carlos Hyde – SF vs. GB – $7,400
• Joseph Randle – DAL @ NO – $7,400
• Frank Gore – IND vs. JAC – $7,300
• C.J. Anderson – DEN vs. MIN – $6,900
• Melvin Gordon – SD vs. CLE – $6,800
• Karlos Williams – BUF vs. NYG – $6,300
• Danny Woodhead – SD vs. CLE – $6,100
• Darren Sproles – PHI @ WAS – $6,000

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins – HOU @ ATL – $7,900

Hopkins will face an Atlanta defense that has allowed 282 yards per game through the air. No. 1 receivers have done well against the Falcons’ secondary this season, and Hopkins fits the definition of a one. He’s pretty elite as receivers go. Hopkins has been targeted 39 times this season and has averaged 84 yards per game.

Amari Cooper – OAK @ CHI – $7,200

Cooper has been a consistent target in the Oakland passing game, and he’ll face a Chicago Bears’ defense that has allowed a 123.8 passer rating and eight passing touchdowns to opposing offenses this season.

James Jones – GB @ SF – $6,000

I want a piece of the Green Bay offense in San Francisco, and Jones is $2,200 cheaper than Randall Cobb. The 49ers are allowing a league-worst 10.0 yards per passing attempt, and Aaron Rodgers is pretty good at football. Jones has showed he can provide consistent production in an elite passing offense this season, and I think he’ll be a popular pick on Sunday.

Other notables:

• Odell Beckham Jr. – NYG @ BUF – $9,100
• Demaryius Thomas – DEN vs. MIN – $8,500
• A.J. Green – CIN vs. KC – $8,400
• Randall Cobb – GB @ SF – $8,200
• Emmanuel Sanders – DEN vs. MIN – $7,900
• Michael Crabtree – OAK @ CHI – $5,800
• Ted Ginn Jr. – CAR @ TB – $5,500

Tight End

Greg Olsen – CAR @ TB – $6,300

I toyed with pairing Ted Ginn Jr. with Newton for my QB-WR stack, but I like Olson a lot more. He has a higher floor than Ginn, and a Newton/Olsen stack last week scored 59.3 points last week. With a lot of question marks surrounding the Panthers’ receiving game, Olsen is a breath of fresh air. He’s Cam Newton’s most reliable target and should see plenty of looks against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed a 100.3 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Other notables:

• Jimmy Graham – SEA vs. DET – $6,600
• Travis Kelce – KC @ CIN – $6,400
• Jordan Reed – WAS vs. PHI – $5,600
• Charles Clay – BUF vs. NYG – $5,200

Kicker

Steven Hauschka – SEA vs. DET – $5,100

I wanted a piece of the Monday night game, and Hauschka is my favorite option. Russell Wilson is expensive, and he’s been fluky to start the season. I’ve paired Olsen with Newton, so I don’t want to use Jimmy Graham. Marshawn Lynch has health concerns, and Seattle’s defense is too expensive to fill out my lineup. That leaves me with Hauschka, who scored 16 points last week and no less than seven in each game. His price should keep his ownership percentages down, and he gives me an opportunity to score some points on Monday night and there’s a possibility I could leapfrog teams that have already finished.

Defense/Special Teams

Philadelphia Eagles @ WAS – $4,500

Washington heavily relies on the run, and the Eagles can stop them, having allowed 87 yards per game. They’re also holding opposing quarterbacks to an 81.7 passer rating. There are weather concerns in Washington D.C. regarding Hurricane Joaquin, which could potentially postpone the game. Most reports I’ve seen say the stadium will miss harsh conditions and just experience some steady wind and rain. If that’s the case, I can see a sloppy game with a lot of chances for turnovers.

Philadelphia has weapons in the return game, so there’s always a chance at six points from a return touchdown. Last week the Eagles’ defense was owned in only 0.7% of lineups in the large multi-entry GPP where I had a few tickets. I think they’ll maintain a low ownership percentage this week as well.

My Lineup

QB: Cam Newton – CAR @ TB – $8,300

RB: Matt Forte – CHI vs. OAK – $8,300

RB: Isaiah Crowell – CLE @ SD – $6,400

WR: DeAndre Hopkins – HOU @ ATL – $7,900

WR: Amari Cooper – OAK @ CHI – $7,200

WR: James Jones – GB @ SF – $6,000

TE: Greg Olsen – CAR @ TB – $6,300

K: Steven Hauschka – SEA vs. DET – $5,100

D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles @ WAS – $4,500

Remaining salary: $0

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JP Gale is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from JP, check out his archive and follow him @gojpg.