Le’Veon Bell carried the Steelers to victory Monday night
Eric Moody discusses the numbers behind Week 5.
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Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week. The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. We just wrapped up Week 5 of the NFL season. We were exhilarated with breathtaking performances and unfortunate injuries to key offensive players. Blake Bortles and Josh McCown finished as top three fantasy quarterbacks. Both players went undrafted in many leagues and provide another reason to stream quarterbacks. Doug Martin and Devonta Freeman finished as the top two fantasy running backs in Week 5. Both players were middle-round picks in fantasy drafts and are currently top three running backs in terms of overall points. This provides a perfect example of the volatility up and down at the position. The goal of this weekly column is to share with you stats in order to provide clarity and to help you understand how productive certain players can be for your fantasy football team. With that in mind, it’s time to dive into Week 5.
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1.13: Doug Martin’s Fantasy Points Per Opportunity in Week 5
Many questioned whether Martin would return to form this season. He reportedly had a great offseason and new Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter fought to keep him on the roster. Negative game script had limited Martin’s production early in the season. All of the offseason hype truly came to fruition on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Martin had 24 carries and two touchdowns and caught three passes for 35 yards and a touchdown. This is the type of performance that wins fantasy week for owners. Martin finished as the No. 1 fantasy running back and had 1.13 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity according to Pro Football Focus. The only other running back to have more fantasy points than Martin over the past two weeks is Devonta Freeman. He will continue to be a high-end RB2 when the Buccaneers return from their Week 6 bye.
90: Giovani Bernard’s Elusive Rating in Week 5
Bernard had 15 carries for 80 yards and caught five of his eight targets for 21 yards. The Pro Football Focus “Elusive Rating” boils down a runner’s success beyond the point of being helped by his blockers. Bernard had the second highest Elusive Rating of any running back who had at least half of their team’s rushing attempts. He currently has more fantasy points than Jeremy Hill in standard scoring leagues. Bernard has more carries, rushing yards, and higher yards per carry than Hill. The only area where Hill is outperforming Bernard is in touchdowns. The sell high window on Jeremy Hill is expiring. What’s your next move? Hope is not a strategy in fantasy football.
3.62: Willie Snead’s Receiving Yards Per Route Run in Week 5
Snead caught six of 11 targets for 141 yards. He had a wide receiver targets share of 42 percent and led the New Orleans Saints in Receiving Yards Per Route Run. Mark Ingram and Drew Brees are the only Saints players with more fantasy points than Snead through Week 5. Brees looked to Snead and not Brandin Cooks on third downs. He is a strong WR3 moving forward in standard and PPR formats.
158.3: Blake Bortles’ quarterback rating when targeting Allen Hurns in Week 5
Hurns caught five of six targets for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers. Bortles had a higher quarterback rating throwing to him than to Allen Robinson (139.6) according to Pro Football Focus. Hurns played on 98.3 percent of the snaps in Week 5. He has played and 88.5 percent of the snaps so far this year. Robinson only has 11 more targets on the season than Hurns. I consider him a great WR3 with WR2 upside on any given week. Robinson demands additional defensive attention and Hurns will benefit. He has had at least 70 receiving yards or more and a touchdown in three straight games. If he is available in your fantasy league I would prioritize him if you need a wide receiver.
2.93: Gary Barnidge’s Receiving Yards Per Route Run in Week 5
Barnidge caught eight of 1o targets for 139 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. He had the second highest Receiving Yards Per Route Run for a tight end in Week 5. Barnidge has had at least 75 receiving yards in three straight games. The Browns have attempted a pass on 72 percent of their offensive plays the last three weeks according to the MMQB. The only other tight ends who have more fantasy points than Barnidge are Tyler Eifert and Rob Gronkowski. He has emerged as a TE1 for the Browns where many expected Rob Housler to flourish in this role heading into the season.
90.3: The percentage of routes Jamison Crowder ran as a slot receiver in Week 5
Crowder caught eight of eight targets for 87 yards against the Falcons. He has quietly accumulated 21 receptions over the last three games. Crowder produced the second highest slot receiving yards per route run (3.11) in Week 5 according to Pro Football Focus. If you are in a pinch at the wide receiver position I would recommend targeting Crowder in PPR fantasy football leagues as a WR3.
3.17: Antonio Gates’ Receiving Yards Per Route Run in Week 5
Gates caught nine of 11 targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. He only played on 56.5 percent of the snaps and ran only 29 routes as he returned from a four-game suspension. The Chargers used him in special packages. He had two red zone targets and converted both of them. Gates is a TE1 moving forward and those fantasy owners who stashed him were rewarded on Monday night.
117.3: Le’Veon Bell’s Elusive Rating in Week 5
Bell had 21 carries for 111 yards and one touchdown against the Chargers. He also caught four of five targets for 16 yards. Bell was the engine that propelled the Steelers to a victory on Monday night. He has a rare skillset as a runner that can overcome any offensive line woes. Bell’s one-yard touchdown run out of the Wildcat formation to win the game is a great example of the athletic ability he possesses. He is a great RB1 that can help win weeks for fantasy owners.
14: DeAndre Hopkins’ targets in Week 5
This was the one of the best wide receiver games from a film perspective I have seen in quite some time. Hopkins displayed very good hands, solid route-running ability, phenomenal play speed, and elite agility against the Colts. He is currently averaging 15 targets a game and is on pace for over 240. Hopkins has 17 more targets than the second most targeted wide receiver Julio Jones (58) through Week 5. The only other two wide receivers with more fantasy points than Hopkins are Jones and Larry Fitzgerald.
4.40: Danny Woodhead’s Receiving Yards Per Route Run in Week 5
Melvin Gordon was used more as a receiver out of the backfield, but Woodhead still had the higher Receiving Yards Per Route Run. Woodhead is still the running back to own in San Diego. The Chargers offensive line injury woes have impacted the running game. Woodhead has more fantasy points in PPR and standard scoring fantasy football leagues through Week 5. He is an RB2 in PPR formats and a weekly FLEX in standard formats.
Quick Hits
- Peyton Manning had a quarterback rating of 43.2 when throwing to Demaryius Thomas in Week 5. Thomas is a great buy-low target if you are in need of a wide receiver.
- Russell Wilson continues to leverage his athletic ability to create plays. He was under pressure on 51.7 percent of his drop backs in Week 5.
- Andy Dalton (0.68) and Tyrod Taylor (0.63) are currently top three fantasy quarterbacks with an impressive fantasy points per drop back number according to Pro Football Focus.
- Sam Bradford attempted six passes greater than 20 yards according to Pro Football Focus. The issue is that he did not complete any of them. How much more of his quarterback play do we have to endure until Mark Sanchez gets the nod?
- Three of Brandin Cooks’ receptions and his touchdown came on the Saints final drive. Cooks had five targets of greater than 20 yards according to Pro Football Focus. It would be a great time to sell high on him. Cooks has a 34 percent target share on the season, but Snead continues to close the gap.
