Is Jameis WInston for real, or is he just on a hot streak?

Recapping the Week 11 installment of Burning Questions:

NOTES: I looked at Kamar Aiken’s recent usage and exploitable matchups down the stretch, but it wound up being a mistake to keep him benched despite the tough matchup against St. Louis… Davante Adams also fell short of expectations as he continues to produce little with heavy usage, and has even drawn the ire of coach Mike McCarthy… Stevie Johnson hauled in seven of his eight targets but did not find the end zone or break off any long gains, leaving his point total a bit lighter than expected… T.Y. Hilton, on the other hand, did continue his downward trend as we anticipated… The Giants had their bye last week, but look for Dwayne Harris to continue to be involved on offense.

Catching up on Jonathan Stewart, he has scored the fifth-most fantasy points among running backs since Week 8, when I made the case that he was being undervalued.

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On to Week 12.

1) Is Doug Martin an elite RB1?

Coming off a 235-yard rushing effort at Philadelphia, there wouldn’t seem to be much dissidence about Doug Martin’s place among the game’s best. Still, his Week 11 effort did come against a fading Eagles’ defense that’s been hemorrhaging rushing yards of late, and it bears mention that Martin still sits outside the top-10 in our expert consensus rankings for the rest of the season.

Injuries and ineffectiveness made him a fantasy afterthought for the past two seasons, but Martin is producing at a similar level as he did in 2012, when he was the No. 2 fantasy back as a first-round rookie behind only 2,000-yard rusher Adrian Peterson. Martin is averaging 5.0 yards per carry this season, which is better than the 4.6 YPC he averaged in 2012, as he is on pace to run for a career-high 1,500 yards.

He also owns Pro Football Focus’ top elusive rating among 52 qualifiers, having caused a league-high 51 missed tackles to go with an average of 3.32 yards after contact per attempt. In 2012, he finished seventh in elusive rating, averaged 3.15 yards after contact, and caused missed tackles at a less frequent rate. The main difference is that his touchdown total is down from 12 to only four so far.

WEEK 12 AND BEYOND
Martin carries an Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) as the No. 3 RB this week against the Colts, who rank 22nd in fantasy points to opposing rushers. With matchups looming against even worse run defenses in the following weeks (ATL, NO), Martin is a weekly top-three RB for me.

2) Is Jameis Winston someone you can trust for the fantasy playoffs?

Jameis Winston, the former Heisman Trophy winner, BCS champion and top overall draft pick, has now cracked the top-12 fantasy QBs on the season. The question facing fantasy owners is whether Winston is here to stay as a QB1, or if his recent play is merely a hot stretch in a small career sample size.

Last week, he threw five touchdown passes, although he had never previously thrown three in a game at the pro level. I already mentioned the Eagles’ porous run defense, but their pass defense has been no better. Still, Winston had shown signs of turning the corner well before Week 11.

He is PFF’s No. 10 rated quarterback on the season and ranks fifth among qualifiers in accuracy percentage on throws targeted 20 yards or more downfield (.459). Winston has not been intercepted in five of his last six games, and he is also now up to four rushing scores.

WEEK 12 AND BEYOND
Indianapolis is ranked 23^rd in fantasy points to opposing QBs, although Winston is being started in only 13 percent of ESPN leagues this week and remains available in more than 60 percent of leagues. I like his chances to outperform expectations and turn in another QB1 performance in Week 12.

Looking ahead, it’s always a risky proposition to rely on a rookie quarterback to start a fantasy playoff game, but Winston does make for a decent streaming option due to his remaining schedule and solid supporting cast. You’ll want to play the matchups because he is not yet a weekly plug-and-play.

3) What to make of Brock Osweiler’s impact on Denver’s offense?

In his first career start, Brock Osweiler led the Denver Broncos to a road win over the Chicago Bears, and he was a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 11. At the very least, it was the kind of performance that has the organization thinking about leaving Osweiler in as the starter the rest of the way to see what he can do.

The Arizona State product completed 20-of-27 attempts (.741), including a couple of touchdowns, as he posted a 127.1 QB rating. He also did not throw an interception, something Peyton Manning was not able to say in any of his nine starts this season. Still, we’ll need to see some more from Osweiler in a few areas before he can be counted on as a fantasy starter.

His average of 9.26 yards per completion is a bit misleading due to some bonus run-after-catch production, as his average depth of target was only 6.4 yards, per PFF. He also completed only two passes out of 12 dropbacks under pressure and took five sacks. His 40.0 accuracy percentage on pressured passes was worse than every quarterback except Case Keenum (33.3). Without pressure, Osweiler was 18-of-20 for 225 yards with two TDs.

WEEK 12 AND BEYOND
He can expect the Patriots to bring the heat this week, and they rank 13^th in fantasy points yielded to opposing QBs. Last week’s start was certainly an encouraging one for Osweiler, but he needs to prove himself in areas such as beating the blitz and making throws downfield before he can be a recommended fantasy play. Even then, with such a limited sample size, you’d be taking a leap of faith to start him in an elimination game, so he’s more of a player to monitor for keeper and dynasty leagues.

4) Is there any cause for concern with Todd Gurley?

Todd Gurley burst onto the scene on a record pace, racking up 566 rushing yards through his first four career games seeing extensive action. But he has failed to top 100 yards on the ground in three straight games and is averaging only 3.2 YPC in that span.

However, Gurley has maintained his value by finding the end zone in each of those games, ranking fifth among RBs in fantasy points from Weeks 9-11. He has actually scored six times in the last five games, and he is still averaging 5.0 YPC on the season.

The Rams’ lack of any kind of passing game has certainly played a big part in Gurley’s recent slide. Defenses have simply had no reason to fear Nick Foles or Keenum, or really any of the team’s receivers. It’s also possible Gurley could be hitting that rookie wall, considering he has averaged just 1.95 yards after contact per attempt since Week 9, compared to 3.22 over the previous four weeks.

WEEK 12 AND BEYOND
The fact that Gurley is still finding the end zone and carrying such a high floor is what’s really encouraging for fantasy owners. He is averaging the most fantasy points per snap (0.43) among 48 qualified running backs, per PFF. That is the trait of an elite fantasy RB, so look for Gurley to continue his RB1 production at Cincinnati this week.

5) Is Thomas Rawls really the future in Seattle?

Thomas Rawls was this week’s top waiver pickup after he shredded San Francisco for 255 yards and two touchdowns on 33 touches in Week 11. He got the start in place of an injured Marshawn Lynch, who may not return this season after undergoing sports hernia surgery on Wednesday. The 49ers are one of the league’s worst run defenses, although Rawls also shined while filling in for Lynch earlier this season with 104 yards on 16 carries against Chicago in Week 3 and then 169 yards and a score two weeks later at Cincinnati.

Despite going undrafted out of Central Michigan in this year’s NFL Draft, Rawls certainly looks like he belongs as a featured back at this level. According to PFF, he caused seven missed tackles in Week 11 and averaged 4.43 yards after contact per carry.

WEEK 12 AND BEYOND
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll leans heavily on the running game, so Rawls will get plenty of opportunities to make his case to supplant Lynch in 2016. This week’s opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, are actually the second-stingiest defense to opposing fantasy running backs, but Rawls will at least be a high-upside RB2.

For those in keeper and dynasty formats who were fortunate enough to acquire Rawls, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about his future prospects, but there are still plenty of unknowns. Whether or not Lynch returns for 2016 at his $9 million base salary, it’s a good bet the front office will look to add another running back either in free agency or the first few rounds of the draft. How much the Seahawks prioritize the position will still hinge on whether Rawls can string together several strong performances to finish out the season. In other words, he has not been crowned anything just yet.

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Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.