The Browns get an incredibly juicy matchup against the bruised and battered Ravens

Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for four straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.

The AFC West has clearly been the division to watch when it comes to D/STs. For the first six weeks of the season, the Denver Broncos were on fire. The Broncos averaged 18.5 points per game in MFL Standard and showed no signs of slowing down; unlike years past, the top D/ST finally looked to be doing it on the back of strong defensive play rather than lucky pick-6s and fumbles recovered for touchdowns! To top it off, the Broncos defense handily crushed two division rivals – Kansas City and Oakland – neither of which looked particularly vulnerable on their own merits.

How quickly things have changed. The Broncos are still the top D/ST in the game for the first 11 weeks, but the margin has shrunk, and they’re no longer the defense to own going forward. That distinction goes to the Kansas City Chiefs, and they’ve taken that crown and run with it. After being pegged last week as the top streaming option, the Chiefs came through with 20 points and kept pace with the other top-scoring defenses.

The Broncos always had uncomfortable playoff matchups (vs. OAK, at PIT, vs CIN), but for months they looked too good to worry about. Their recent vulnerabilities though make that harder to ignore. Meanwhile, the Chiefs get the following schedule to close out their season:

Week 14: Home versus the San Diego Chargers
Week 15: Away at the Baltimore Ravens
Week 16: Home versus the Browns

In case you haven’t been keeping track at home, that’s three games against Johnny Manziel, Matt Schaub, and a team that’s having trouble fielding a full offensive roster of professional football players. In terms of fantasy points against, the Browns are ranked #1, Chargers ranked #7, and I think Matt Schaub has thrown more pick-6s than completed passes over the past two seasons. I hope you grabbed the Chiefs last week because they’re going to be gone everywhere very, very soon.

Week 11 was a lot more “normal” than Week 10, whatever that means. Only two top defenses, the Eagles and the Jets, fell flat, but Philadelphia in particular, was a lineup-killer. The Eagles scored 0 MFL points and the Jets scored just 4. Every other top option either played well or scored well, and that’s all we can really ask for.

Tier two options fared even better. The Jaguars and Titans quickly silenced rumors that it would be a shut out, and both teams produced start-worthy D/STs. The Rams and Chiefs rounded out the tier with 9 and 20 points, respectively.

The only third tier team to score poorly was Arizona, but we could have seen that coming. The awkward part is that the Cardinals were pegged as being too good to drop, and that’s still probably true, especially with a matchup against the 49ers coming this week. Still, bad scores are bad, and the Cardinals scored just 3 points. The rest of the tier rolled.

Averages by tier

Tier 1 & 1.5: 7.8
Tier 2 & 2.5: 12.8
Tier 3 & 3.5: 11.2

Overall, defenses averaged a robust 9.2 points.

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Week 12 D/ST Scoring (Team – expected points – tier)

1. Arizona Cardinals – 11.1 – 1
2. New England Patriots – 10.4 – 1
3. Kansas City Chiefs – 10.4 – 1
4. New York Jets – 10.3 – 1
5. Cincinnati Bengals – 9.8 – 1.5
6. Philadelphia Eagles – 9.8 – 1.5
7. Carolina Panthers – 9.6 – 1.5
8. Green Bay Packers – 9.4 – 2
9. Cleveland Browns – 9.2 – 2
10. Oakland Raiders – 9.1 – 2
11. New York Giants – 8.9 – 2
12. Seattle Seahawks – 8.7 – 2.5
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8.3 – 3
14. Jacksonville Jaguars – 8.3 – 3
15. Atlanta Falcons – 8.1 – 3
16. Pittsburgh Steelers – 8.1 – 3

Bye weeks are officially over, which opens up at least 4 more D/STs to choose from and lets us shed the crappy bye-week fill-ins we’ve been using if they haven’t been dropped yet. Note that Houston, Detroit, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Buffalo, and Tennessee are all very close to Pittsburgh at number 16.

Tier 1: Arizona, New England, Kansas City, New York Jets

Here’s the payoff for sticking with Arizona last week. The Seahawks just got through throttling the 49ers, and the Cardinals are every bit as good as the Seahawks, if not better (even on the road). Don’t be scared away by the Seahawks’ low score – they were very good, but just did not tally any of the D/ST scoring stats. The only negative mark against the Cardinals is that they get the Packers in Week 16. Make arrangements for that now or later, but don’t fail to do something about it.

The Patriots once again show why I’ve been touting them for weeks. Teams like New England are safe plays in almost any week since they have a fairly strong defense at all three levels – defensive line, linebackers, and secondary – and they have an elite offense. This keeps them favored in Vegas every week and allows you to start them with confidence regularly as a high-expectation, boom/bust option. Brock Osweiler was a solid starter last week for the Broncos, but he was far from Peyton Manning in his prime. The Patriots will show up to Mile High as a decent road favorite, and should be able to profit off the inexperienced quarterback.

The Jets disappointed last week, but then again they were on the road and just played a bad game. I wouldn’t hold that against them too much! If we take out their games against the Patriots and Raiders – two bad matchups in a row that we could have easily subbed for the Jets – they’re averaging a very strong 10.6 points per game. With a home game against the Dolphins this week, the Jets should roll. Miami has been the 10th best matchup for opposing D/STs, and they’re less than 1 point per game from 5th place. That’s not just a relic from the first half of the season, either. In the last four weeks, defenses have averaged 12.5 points per game against Miami!

That does it for the top tier!

Heh, heh. Just kidding. Kansas City is a must add in all leagues and virtually all formats for all of the reasons outlined above. The Bills normally wouldn’t be a great matchup, but with Tyrod Taylor forgetting how to play football and Rex Ryan forgetting that he can sub out injured players, and with this game being played in Kansas City, the Chiefs can be started with confidence. The Chiefs haven’t allowed 200 passing yards since Week 6, and haven’t allowed 300 total yards since Week 7! They’re on fire, and they have eclipsed Denver, St. Louis, New England, Arizona, and Seattle as my favorite D/ST to be holding on your roster going forward.

Tier 1.5: Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Carolina

Much less exciting here than the true tier 1 choices above. The Panthers are the most interesting team, and they finally had a game in Week 11 that rewarded owners for holding them. Their previous five weeks were fine (averaging 9.2 points per game), but far from elite. Now that average jumps to 10.8 since their bye week, and they should continue their strong scoring for at least one more week. The Panthers allowed just 186 total yards against the Redskins, tacking on 4 (!) fumble recoveries, 1 interception, and 5 sacks. They’d be a top tier choice at home, and are very good even on the road here against a Dallas team that didn’t look quite right last week.

The Bengals are also a strong start this week, regardless of which QB they face. Fading Todd Gurley has turned into an OK proposition, despite his crazy individual numbers. Remember: the Rams are still coached by Jeff Fisher, and Jeff Fisher is still a horrible coach. The Rams are the 13th best matchup for opposing D/STs before controlling for strength of schedule, but that’s deceptively low since they’re less than 1 point per game below #5 and can be considered a very strong matchup as far as I’m concerned.

And then we have the Eagles. The most disappointing Week 11 D/ST is back, and this time, they mean business! Maybe. Probably? Hopefully. They get a Thanksgiving day matchup against the Detroit Staffords, and I’d be “Lion” if said I was scared of that one.

Ugh.

I’m sorry, everybody. The person responsible for that one has just been sacked, much like Matthew Stafford will be this week. Let’s not mince words: Stafford is not a good NFL quarterback and he’s very mistake-prone. Over his career, he has more interceptions than games played, and that trend has held true in 2015. While the Lions are always a threat to put up points, they can do so in ways that allow opposing D/STs to profit anyway.

Tier 2 & 2.5: Green Bay, Cleveland, Oakland, New York Giants, Seattle

With the top tiers stretching 7-deep this week, most of us will either have something good rostered already, or we’ll be streaming pretty deep here. Thankfully, Cleveland and Oakland provide two solid streaming options here, and the Giants might also be available off of their bye week. But which to choose?

First, Seattle is the easy choice on this tier if available. The Seahawks haven’t been putting up the D/ST metrics but they’ve still been a very good defense, and they’re still worth holding on to. I’d start most of the tier 1 options first, but the Seahawks are still too good to drop.

The Packers are also very easy to like here. After three weeks in a row without any sacks, they finally kicked things back into gear with six against the Vikings. The Bears are a plus matchup, and the Packers are at home. I expect Green Bay to roll and would be happy backing their D/ST again.

Oakland and Cleveland are very similar this week. The Raiders are the 5th worst D/ST on the season, and the Browns are the 4th worst. Both of them have very good matchups: the Raiders are at Tennessee, who have been a tier 1 matchup for opposing D/STs, and the Browns are at home versus Matt Schaub and the Ravens (who are also missing their starting RB, to boot). Both choices really put our D/ST theories to the test. Do matchups really matter? Can bad D/STs be elevated to good starters in the right situations?

The answer to both questions is a resounding yes, but that is no guarantee that either team will score well. Start at your own risk, but streamers won’t have any alternative. If pressed, I would rather be on Cleveland than on Oakland here. I think I would take the Giants over both. Even though New York is on the road, their Washington opponent has given up 9+ points in 6 of 10 weeks and have given up 4+ points in 9 of 10 weeks. The only D/ST to truly blow it against the Redskins was the Saints, and I’m pretty sure the Saints defenders don’t even practice during the week.

Tier 3 and below

As with last week, I’ll highlight some lower-ranked teams that are noteworthy for one reason or another. Last week, we highlighted Arizona (scored poorly but ranked #1 this week), Baltimore (scored 13), and Atlanta (scored 12).

Jacksonville – the Jaguars profile as having the highest floor of the bottom tiers. They’ve quietly been a great defense over the last five weeks, averaging 12.8 points in four weeks and a bye. This week they get the Chargers at home, who were a fine matchup even before losing all of their wide receivers. Dial up the Jaguars for 3+ sacks, 1+ turnovers, and a fair amount of points allowed.

Houston – inevitably, the Texans will cause confusion for owners. They’ve been rolling for the last 5 games, and even managed 3 MFL points when they got destroyed by the Dolphins. This week they’re home against the Saints, though, and although New Orleans have allowed three strong D/ST scores and three more average scores, they’re not a good fade.

St. Louis – bad matchup this week. Still a good D/ST. If you have them, you shouldn’t drop them, except for one of the other strong ROS options. I would not want to start the Rams this week though, so look for a second D/ST if you can afford to. They get three home games in a row after this, including vs. DET and vs. TB in weeks 14 and 15.

Baltimore – yuck, but they get Johnny Manziel. Is there a worse QB matchup possible than Manziel-Schaub? I’ve seen celebrity boxing matchups more watchable. The Ravens are a bad team, in a bad season, but we saw them profit last week against a similarly poor QB in Case Keenum, and so the blueprint for success is available. Start at your own risk.

Denver – I don’t think we can start them this week. Bye weeks are over, so unless you’re stashing multiple injured players, you’ve got the space to sit them for a week and see how things go. Friends don’t let friends fade the Patriots with a D/ST.

This third tier of D/STs is full of fungible choices, though, so don’t be scared to audible into something else if you think they’re worthwhile. Just be sure to stay away from the truly bad options – Chicago, San Francisco, Dallas, Minnesota, Washington, New Orleans, San Diego, Miami, and Tennessee – and you should be OK on paper.

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Best of luck in Week 12!