Calvin Johnson presents a safe floor and solid upside on Thanksgiving

DraftKings has a really cool tournament ($20 entry) for Thanksgiving this year. The NFL $2M Wishbone Classic ($200K to 1st). This contest will only feature the three games that are being played on our national holiday. It is extremely important to differentiate your lineup with only six teams to choose from. Leaving a good amount of salary on the table is a viable strategy, making your lineup unique.

Thanksgiving is giving us plenty to be thankful for. Each game has a total of 46.0 points or more. The Packers have the highest projected team total (TT) with it being implied at 28.0. The Panthers and Eagles both have healthy projected TTs of 23.5. The Bears have the lowest projected TT (19.0).

Most of the players that are listed under “other notables” are players that made my model and were graded out high due to salary, matchup, projected value, floor/ceiling, projected touches/targets, game flow, Vegas totals/spreads, defense vs. position (DvP) and projected ownership.

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Quarterback

Matthew Stafford – DET vs. PHI – $5,800
Stafford managed to put up 20.4 FPTS without throwing for a touchdown last week against the Raiders. Stafford gets a decent matchup at home versus the Eagles’ crumbling defense. This game is being played in a dome where weather won’t have an impact, allowing Stafford to chuck the ball around.

The Lions are favored at home (2.5) in a game with a high game total of 46.0 points. I project this game to go well over that total with there being plenty of fantasy goodness to choose from.

Other Notables

• Aaron Rodgers – GB vs. CHI – $7,400

Running Backs

Matt Forte – CHI at GB – $6,800
Forte (knee) is expected to play and shouldn’t be limited when he gets back on the field. Usually, players are lower owned when they are coming back from an injury due to the uncertainty of performance and projected workload.

The Bears’ projected TT of 19.0 is the lowest on the slate and a majority of the buzz is around the Packers’ offense. The weather in Green Bay is projected to be windy (10 to 20 mph) with periods of rain. Sleet or freezing rain is also a possibility. This game has all the indications of a heavy run attack with a lot of dinking and dunking to Forte.

If the game script goes as I project, Forte will be in for a huge day. His salary ($6,800) is easy to squeeze into your lineup with it declining due to his recent injury.

DeMarco Murray – PHI at DET – $6,100
Murray was a disappointment last week along with everybody else in Philadelphia. The Buccaneers grabbed an early lead and didn’t take their foot off the pedal. The Eagles’ offense was forced to pass the ball, leaving Murray with only 13 rushing attempts.

The Eagles’ are underdogs on the road against a Lions’ team who is on a two-game winning streak. Don’t be fooled by the Lions’ recent success defensively. They are still allowing 116.7 RuYds per game and come in ranked 31st, allowing 27.4 points per game.

I expect the Eagles’ offense to have a heavy running attack, especially early to get the Lions’ defense tired. The Lions defense has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns this season, which is the worst in the entire league. Plug Murray in your lineups on Thanksgiving Day and watch the running back feast.

Other Notables

• Darren McFadden – DAL vs. CAR – $5,500
• Jeremy Langford – CHI at GB – $5,300
• Jonathan Stewart – CAR at DAL – $5,200
• Eddie Lacy – GB vs. CHI – $4,700
• Darren Sproles – PHI at DET – $3,600
• Theo Riddick – DET vs. PHI – $3,500

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson – DET vs. PHI – $7,200
Johnson could easily be the most owned player on this slate at the wide receiver position. The Eagles’ secondary continues to get beat against wide receivers and are currently ranked 32nd versus the position.

Megatron’s floor and ceiling are too good to fade in this matchup. Stafford won’t have a hard time finding Calvin in space. This is my favorite game to choose from on Thanksgiving Day and there is no better way to enjoy it while watching Johnson feast.

Jordan Matthews – PHI at DET – $5,800
Matthews probably wouldn’t be featured if it weren’t for a three-game slate. Due to multiple poor performances, many people will most likely be off Matthews. He is strictly a tournament option as of right now.

The Lions’ secondary is one of the worst in the league and Matthews has the potential to put up big numbers against them. Matthews is still the Eagles’ No. 1 wide receiver. Zach Ertz (concussion) won’t be ready to play, giving Matthews more target opportunities.

Golden Tate – DET vs. PHI – $4,700
Tate had a solid performance (15.1 FPTS) last week and looks like he is becoming the player that we were used to seeing in 2014. Tate had eight receptions on 11 targets for 73 RecYds in Week 11. His salary ($4,700) is still far too cheap for his upside and matchup.

Other Notables

• Dez Bryant – DAL vs. CAR – $7,600
• Alshon Jeffery – CHI at GB – $6,600
• Randall Cobb – GB vs. CHI – $6,500
• Davante Adams – GB vs. CHI – $4,700
• James Jones – GB vs. CHI – $4,600
• Terrance Williams – DAL vs. CAR – $4,200

Tight End

Greg Olsen – CAR at DAL – $6,200
Olsen is the superior option at tight end on Thanksgiving. His salary of $6,200 is usually too steep for me to pay. There is so much value available elsewhere that it makes sense to pay up for the tight end who has the highest floor and ceiling.

The Cowboys’ defense (10th in DvP) has done a solid job at defending the tight end position this season. Hopefully that will make others weary of paying up for Olsen.

Other Notables

• Jason Witten – DAL vs. CAR – $4,800
• Martellus Bennett – CHI at GB – $4,000
• Eric Ebron – DET vs. PHI – $3,300
• Brent Celek – PHI at DET – $3,200
• Richard Rodgers – GB vs. CHI – $3,100
• Zach Miller – CHI at GB – $2,900

Flex

Devin Funchess – CAR at DAL – $3,900
Funchess is becoming more involved in the Panthers’ offense, stepping into a larger role. Cam Newton targeted the rookie eight times in Week 11 good for 64 RecYds on four receptions and a touchdown.

If Philly Brown is out, Funchess will undoubtedly be my flex option. If Brown does play, I will have to consider a pivot. This lineup has $400 remaining in salary, giving me plenty of room to adjust accordingly.

Terrence Williams is also an intriguing play if Charles Tillman is ruled out.

Defense/Special Teams

Green Bay Packers – GB vs. CHI – $3,100
The weather in this game is going to be awful and I don’t expect it to be a fast-paced shootout. The Packers are at home and get to face the Bears’ offense who have the lowest projected TT. The Packers’ defense is healthy and shouldn’t have a difficult time getting to the quarterback.

Other Notables

• Carolina Panthers – CAR at DAL – $3,600
• Dallas Cowboys – DAL vs. CAR – $2,100
• Chicago Bears – CHI at GB – $2,000

Join DraftKings $750,000 Thanksgiving Day Contest:
1. Draft a team of nine NFL players.
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3. First place wins $50,000. Over 65,000 people will win a share of $750,000 guaranteed.

Matthew Davis is a correspondent for FantasyPros. You can find more from Matthew by viewing his archive or following him @_mattywood_.