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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 12

Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 12
Will Antonio Gates end his slump against Jacksonville?

Will Antonio Gates end his slump in Week 12?

The overvalued and undervalued talent of Week 11 was given a pass as I wasn’t able to publish for the week. No worries, though as we come back for Week 12 focusing on value and rankings as it pertains to your fantasy team and DFS lineups. Bye weeks are over now, and we can focus on the entire 32-team slate for the first time since Week 3.

If your year-long team has survived injuries and lack of production, you may be primed for a deep playoff run. If you continue to build your DFS lineups with as much team-variance as possible, you have a full slate of players to choose from. On the flip side, finding the right mix of value and production will be harder with more players to choose from, but it will also dilute ownership amounts, which can mean cashing a lottery ticket with the right lineup.

Using FanDuel values, let’s examine where we’re some are too high and where some are too low for the Sunday and Monday games.

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Quarterback

Overvalued: Philip Rivers – SD (QB8 at JAX, $8,000)
Rivers comes in as the fifth-most expensive quarterback this week on FanDuel, and it would benefit DFS players to look elsewhere. Since losing Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, Rivers has put up pedestrian numbers. In eight games with both receivers, Rivers averaged 344 yards and 2.2 touchdown passes to the tune of 26.74 fantasy points per game. Without Allen and Floyd? 0.5 touchdowns and 229 yards per game, or half the fantasy-point production (13.35 points per game). The Chargers travel to the East Coast for a noon game and are three-point underdogs to Jacksonville. If Rivers continues to trend downward, the sell-high window should be closing this week.

Undervalued: Brian Hoyer – HOU (QB13 vs. NO, $7,100)
Hoyer, if healthy, can follow in the footsteps of fellow QB2s that have put up QB1 numbers while playing the Saints. Over the last month, Kirk Cousins (four touchdowns, 28 points), Marcus Mariota (four touchdowns, 32 points), Eli Manning (five touchdowns, 38 points) and Andrew Luck (three touchdowns, 23 points) have torched the Saints, each putting up over 300 yards in the process. The Saints have given up five more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the second-worst fantasy defense against passers, and have looked confused and inadequate on defense all season long. Hoyer has been a pleasant surprise (13 touchdowns to only four interceptions and 243 yards per game) and has built rapport with DeAndre Hopkins. Hoyer should thrive in this matchup and at his price, is worth the stack with Hopkins.

Running Back

Overvalued: LeSean McCoy – BUF (RB8 at KC, $7,600)
It has been great to see McCoy get back on track, thriving in the Rex Ryan system and working alongside Karlos Williams. McCoy at that price against a team that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs is not great. The Chiefs have given up five touchdowns on the ground, four of which came in one game and none at home. They are also very stingy covering running backs in the passing game, allowing the second-fewest yards and only one receiving score to opposing backs. You can do more with your $7,600 this week.

Undervalued: Thomas Rawls – SEA (RB9 vs. PIT, $6,300)
His cost on value has not caught up to the hype and his abilities, so pounce on this opportunity while he’s still a cheap commodity. Marshawn Lynch did not look like himself at any point this season, and like so many running backs that turned 30 before him, the sun may be setting on his very successful career. That being said, Rawls, like Charcandrick West in Kansas City, looks to be ready to take the next step as an RB1 talent heading into next year. In Week 12, Rawls faces a Steelers’ defense that has actually given up the least amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs. Coast-to-coast travel is never good for anyone, and Rawls may strike early and often against Pittsburgh, which is fresh off its bye.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: A.J. Green – CIN (WR11 vs. STL, $8,100)
He’s had two double-digit yardage games and four touchdowns this season, making him a top-10 receiver in all formats in fantasy drafts during the preseason. In some strange twist of fate, the Bengals are good, but somehow are doing this without consensus WR1 Green and RB1 Jeremy Hill. Green has underwhelmed this season, leaving a lot to be desired given where he was taken in most drafts. There’s no injury news this season, but the contract extension before the season starts makes you wonder. Regardless, Green going up against a top-tier defense such as St. Louis is exactly the type of matchup to stray from, especially with his top-five price tag among receivers.

Undervalued: Brandon LaFell – NE (WR33 at NE, $6,900)
Tom Brady needs to throw to someone other than Rob Gronkowski, and his options are becoming more and more limited as the weeks go on. Brady has lost Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman and now Danny Amendola, and will have to rely on a batch of unproven receivers and his All-Pro tight end to move the ball this week in Denver against the top-scoring fantasy defense. LaFell becomes Brady’s most trusted veteran, even though he joined the team last season and missed most of this year with a foot injury. At his price tag, it’s worth a shot to pick him up and save some money at the receiver position knowing that Brady’s targets are either his or Gronkowski’s.

Tight End

Overvalued: Antonio Gates – SD (TE5 at JAX, $5,700)
This one sticks out since the thought of Gates as the fifth-ranked tight end does not sit well with this writer. Like we mentioned above, the Chargers’ offense has done very little with the injuries to Allen and Floyd. So with the age and injury history of Gates, thinking that top-five numbers are viable here seems to be a bit overzealous.

Since the 18/187/2 he put up in his first two games, Gates has been mortal, totaling only 11 catches, 131 yards and no touchdowns over the last three. With Ladarius Green coming back and only costing $5,000 to enter into your lineup, go that route if you feel the need for a Chargers’ tight end to be on your DFS ticket.

Undervalued: Cameron Brate – TB (TE40 at IND, $4,600)
The Buccaneers’ offense has become more prolific with the development of Jameis Winston. Brate has caught two touchdown passes in the last four games and with Austin Seferian-Jenkins continuing to miss time, Brate has stepped up as a goal-line option for Winston and the Buccaneers. If Doug Martin continues to set the pace with the run, Brate will get more looks in play-action and add more to his value than just the “shot in the dark” goal-line touchdown catch. Brate is worth a start if you want to go straight up dart throw at tight end, saving some dollars for other components of your lineup.

DFS Stack of the Week
Brian Hoyer ($7,100), DeAndre Hopkins ($9,400) and Alfred Blue ($5,900) hosting New Orleans.

DFS Trap Stack of the Week
Ben Roethlisberger ($7,800), Antonio Brown ($9,000) and DeAngelo Williams ($7,100) traveling to Seattle.

If you win any contests with this lineup, take a screenshot and send it to me on Twitter.

Until next week folks!

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Michael Vincent is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Michael, check out his archive and follow him @MVtweetshere.

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