Kirk Cousins could be an overlooked value pick this weekend

This is the week that we need to move aside what we think we know, what we’re just too plain stupid to see, and what is reality in terms of the quarterback position. If Week 11 didn’t teach you anything, it goes to show that anyone (yes, I mean basically anyone) with the opportunity to throw the football professionally as a starting QB has the chance to be a QB1.

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Week 11 Recap

Here were the top 12 QBs in order of standard scoring: (4 pts. per passing TD).

Predictions

• Tom Brady
• Cam Newton
• Philip Rivers
• Carson Palmer
• Aaron Rodgers
• Blake Bortles
• Derek Carr
• Matthew Stafford
• Matt Ryan
• Russell Wilson
• Tyrod Taylor
• Tony Romo

Actual

• Cam Newton
• Jameis Winston
• Russell Wilson
• Carson Palmer
• Andy Dalton
• Matthew Stafford
• Teddy Bridgewater
• Aaron Rodgers
• Brock Osweiler
• Marcus Mariota
• Matt Ryan
• Blaine Gabbert

Going into the Monday Night Football game, I had a chance to add two more QBs to my 50% record for the weekend, an already solid mark. However, Tom Brady and Tyrod Taylor decided that they had better things to do than post respectable numbers.

Across the board, Week 11 was the lowest average QB1 score of the season, as you can see with the likes of game managers Teddy Bridgewater and Blaine Gabbert squeezing into the top 12. Yes, that Blaine Gabbert. The one who fantasy owners strategize against each week, streaming whichever defense played the poor former Jags QB, gave a better Week 11 performance than Tom Brady DESPITE playing in Seattle! What a weird fantasy world we live in…

We also saw the first QB1 performance of the year from a gunslinger who failed to throw for a score in Matthew Stafford. And I scored big on Russell Wilson as he was projected outside of many experts’ top 15 options for the weekend.

Week 12 QB1 Predictions

In our twelfth weekly installment of The QB1 Primer, we look at the varying tiers of quarterbacks, assessing risk, home/away matchups, and realizing each week will have a bit of spontaneity. Remember this isn’t predicting order, simply identifying who is likely to be among the top 12.

Four-Sure

Aaron Rodgers (vs. CHI)
After a strong showing in Minnesota, Rodgers’ elite stat line for the season sits now at 23 passing TDs to three INTs. On Thanksgiving day, the Packers face the Bears in Lambeau, a team he threw for three scores against in Week 1. Rodgers has posted three top-eight QB performances in a row, and I like him to continue that streak to finish out everyone’s Turkey Day festivities. Give me Rodgers for 260+ yards and three TDs.

Cam Newton (@ DAL)
Following his five-touchdown monster effort last week, Newton has firmly placed himself in the MVP conversation as well as the upper echelon of consistent QB1 performers. He does face a tough test against a Cowboys defense that allows 231.1 passing ypg, tenth fewest in the league. This number, however, does not scare me off as Newton himself is only averaging 228.3 in the air and yet has dialed up six QB1 performances thus far. His added value on the ground (38.2 ypg) gives him a safe floor and I look for this to continue on Thanksgiving Day in the range for 290 total yards and two TDs.

Carson Palmer (vs. CIN)
Palmer looked rough at the beginning of Sunday night’s game against the Bengals as he started off with two INTs. He finished the game with a vengeance, ending up with 317 yards and four touchdowns, adding to his league-leading total of 27. Palmer has been fantasy gold for those who drafted him as a late-round QB flier and his consistency (at least 17 points in every game) is something to be prized in this topsy, turvy league. The 49ers have given up the highest completion percentage (70.1) in the league, which spells out another QB1 line of 260+ yards, two to three TDs and one INT.

Brian Hoyer (vs. NO)
This has become the new strategy for 2015: start anyone against the Saints’ defense. Despite Hoyer returning from a concussion, this is a must start as the Texans are trending in the right direction and DeAndre Hopkins has been dominant even with Hoyer out. The Saints give up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs as well as the most passing touchdowns in the league (28), seven more than the second worst team. WARNING: Hoyer will be a popular DFS play this week and you will find everybody and their mama tabbing him as their “start of the week.” Hoyer can hit 300+ yards, two to three TDs and one INT.

Com-Four-table

Drew Brees (@ HOU)
Coming off his bye week, Brees has been a forgotten man in light of the fantasy community’s recent obsession with the Houston Texans. Although their defense has been dominant the last two weeks, let’s not forget this was the same group that was trounced by Ryan Tannehill for four TDs in one half as well as 300 yards and three TDs to Blake Bortles earlier this year. I still think Brees has the ability to neutralize any defensive scheme by not locking into one target and spreading the ball around. He has thrown for multiple TDs in three straight games and I like that trend to continue for 315+ yards and two to three TDs.

Russell Wilson (vs. PIT)
I feel like Wilson displayed the kind of fantasy ceiling we all thought he was capable at the beginning of the year as he threw for three TDs against the 49ers. The Seahawks stay at home to face a Steelers’ secondary that gives up the fifth-most passing yards in the league (278.4). On the other hand, they allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (93.0). This game has the makings of an offensive assault, as Pete Carroll will have to adjust from their usual ground-and-pound game. I’ll take Russell for 270 combined yards and two TDs.

Ben Roethlisberger (@ SEA)
Coming off a much-needed bye week, I expect Roethlisberger to dial up 40-50 pass attempts in this game. The Seahawks, despite their reputation as the elite secondary in football, have given up some huge QB1 games to Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, and even a top 12 performance to Blaine Gabbert last week. Big Ben’s weapons of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, as well as DeAngelo Williams out of the backfield, should keep the Seahawks on their toes all game. In a tough call, I like the Steelers on the road and Big Ben for 300+ yards and two to three TDs.

Marcus Mariota (vs. OAK)
It has been hard for me to get behind Mariota this season as a viable fantasy option. I loved him in college but wasn’t sure how it would translate to the pros. However, Mariota has been averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game, a relatively safe floor for QBs and 13th among those with at least eight starts. He runs into a home matchup against Oakland, who has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to the QB position. Kendall Wright is also expected to return this week giving the Titans some resemblance of a target outside of Delanie Walker. I’ll roll with Mariota for 250+ yards, 25 yards rushing, and two TDs.

Last Four In

Philip Rivers (@ JAX)
Banished to the cellar after back-to-back poor performances, I’m not ready to completely write off Rivers as a QB1 this week. His receiving corps is completely depleted and his offensive line’s health and ability to pass protect has been abysmal. Despite being on the road, I still like Rivers to produce a large quantity, although the quality could be lacking. The Jaguars have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs this season, including five QB1 performances in a row to the likes of Brian Hoyer, E.J. Manuel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, and Marcus Mariota. Not exactly Murderer’s Row. I’ll roll with Rivers in a few DFS lineups especially as he seems to have a sour taste in most people’s mouth. I can see Rivers going for 300+ and two to three TDs and one INT.

Kirk Cousins (vs. NYG)
Woohoo! Captain Kirk returns triumphantly to the QB1 Primer after having a train wreck of a week against the Panthers. The Redskins come home to play an important divisional game against the Giants. Check out these eye-popping totals for New York in 2015; they give up the most yards passing per game (309.9), the second-most fantasy points to QB and have the least number of sacks in the league. I love this matchup and I think Cousins will be a forgotten man in large DFS tournament plays with all the Hoyer/Saints hype. I’m shooting for 280+ yards and three TDs with Cousins.

Matthew Stafford (vs. PHI)
Stafford has shown recently that he can be a useable streaming QB option when given a good matchup. Despite surprisingly not throwing for a TD against the Raiders, Stafford ran for 31 yards and a touchdown and finished as the sixth-best QB performance of the week. On Thursday, he matches up against an Eagles’ secondary that has allowed the fourth-most passing TDs in the league (including five last week against James Winston) and seems to be in complete disarray. I’ll take Stafford at home again for 275+ yards and two TDs.

Jameis Winston (@ IND)
After throwing five TDs against a hapless Eagles’ secondary last week, Winston will be one of the most popular adds for Week 12. I’m not here to jump aboard the hype train, but simply look at his floor and mention the type of upside this matchup present against Indianapolis. The Colts have given up the fourth-most passing yards per game (278.9) as well as the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. If Colts CB Vontae Davis is out, I expect Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to feast this weekend. I like Winston as a low-end QB1 for 240+ yards and two to three TDs with one INT.

Four-Get About It

Tom Brady (@ DEN)
I’ve decided to go against the grain this week and put Brady in this bottom tier. Now, I am not telling you to sit “Tom Terrific” and start over him Winston or Cousins off the waiver wire. I do want to bring to your attention that Denver has given up the fewest fantasy points to QBs this season, allowing one QB1 performance all year. They have yet to give up a 300-yard passer, allowed the fewest first downs (92) as well as the most sacks (34) in the league. All of those stats with the addition of a receiving corps being banged up, and I’m betting against Brady being in the top 12 this week.

Derek Carr (@ TEN)
The underrated Titans’ defense has given up the third-fewest passing ypg (214.2) along forcing the third most sacks in the league (31), surprising numbers for a 2-8 team. I think last week’s underwhelming performance by Carr revealed who he really is; a streamable, yet still maturing young QB. Somehow, someway, we’ve forgotten this is still the Raiders! I’ll be among those voting against Carr this week, playing the Titans’ defense as a cheap, contrarian option many could overlook.

Tyrod Taylor (@ KC)
Taylor laid an egg last week on Monday Night Football. He no longer can be considered a QB with much upside as he has been limited since his return from an injury in Week 8. The Kansas City defense has been lights out recently and now have the second-most INTs (14) as well as the third-lowest completion percentage (57.9) in the league. I’m betting against Taylor going into Arrowhead Stadium, one of the toughest places to play in the league, to have a productive afternoon.

Blake Bortles (vs. SD)
Bortles has been a fantasy find this year for those who picked him up off the scrap heap earlier in the year. His play has leveled out recently as teams have capitalized on his inability to make consistent, accurate throws. The Chargers allow the second-fewest pass attempts in the league (30.9), a stat that only illuminates the fact San Diego cannot stop the run. Bortles’ price in DFS has also risen to the point where he’s no longer a value. I’d stay away from the sophomore QB this week.

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Week 11 Percentage: 6/12 = 50%
Overall: 49%

Kyle Borgognoni is an MLB and NFL correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyle_borg.