Lovie Smith’s defense has been surprisingly tough against the run this season
While fantasy football is mainly focused on the deeds and achievements of individual players, when analyzing such players one must take into account the talent level (or lack thereof) of any potential opponents. It is such analysis that has led me to discover one of the more underrated and under-publicized units in football this season, namely the run defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While people have been quick to laud the team’s improvement (Lovie Smith’s charges are currently 5-5) and heap praise on the shoulders of rookie quarterback Jameis Winston and the offense, the ability of this team to contain opposing ground attacks has been a key factor in the team’s success this season. They’ve turned into a unit that running backs should not necessarily fear, but certainly be aware of.
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While hardly facing a murderer’s row of great rushing attacks, the Bucs have allowed only Alfred Blue back in Week 3 to rush for over 100 yards in a single game. They are allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt in the entire league, at just 3.7 yards per carry. Only four rushing touchdowns have been scored by running backs against them, and even if tailbacks become a part of the passing game Tampa has been able to contain them. The 324 receiving yards that running backs have amassed against the Bucs is the fourth-lowest total across the league. They have allowed only three running backs to have top 10 fantasy days against them, and only one of these runners (Devonta Freeman) has done so since Week 3. Linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander have been solid all season, with Alexander a contender for rookie defensive player of the year before his suspension under the substance abuse policy. His absence could see this team return to the pack in terms of run defense, but there are talented pieces on up front that could limit the damage his loss could cause.
The Buccaneers’ run defense could play a key part in spoiling a lot of championship parties before Week 16 is out, if it continues to stifle running backs at the present rate. In the next five weeks, they face the Colts, Falcons, Saints, Rams and Bears. While the Colts have not had a single 100-yard rusher since 2012, the Falcons have fantasy football’s top scoring running back in Freeman, Mark Ingram is currently RB5 and below him in sixth place is St. Louis rookie Todd Gurley. The Bears possess a potent rushing weapon of their own in Jeremy Langford, who is fantasy’s top scoring running back over the last two weeks, along with veteran Matt Forte. Should one, some or all of these players break upon the Buccaneers like the waves upon rocks, it could spell disaster for thousands of title-chasing owners across the globe. They don’t, however, offer much streaming value on their own, having a very burnable secondary.
When it comes to top-tier players, my strategy is to start them regardless of their matchup. That’s why you drafted them / picked them off the waiver wire / bullied someone into trading with you. But if you have stakes in Freeman, Ingram or Gurley, you may want to temper your expectations slightly in the coming weeks.
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Neil Dutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Neil, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @ndutton13.
