Calvin Johnson carries terrific upside against the Eagles
Welcome to a special Thanksgiving Day edition of the FantasyAces NFL lineup advice. I will be constructing a lineup comprised solely of players from Thursday’s games. Let’s take a look at a Week 12 Thursday-only lineup.
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Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers GB vs. CHI $7,600
Rodgers has the highest combination of safety and upside this week, and it makes sense to lock in his high floor. The Packers have an implied team total of 27.5 points, which means Rodgers should have a hand in plenty of the scoring in this contest. I also don’t think old man Brett Favre being in the house is the worst thing for the protégé. Yes, I just played that narrative.
Matthew Stafford DET vs. PHI $6,200
The Eagles were shredded by rookie Jameis Winston in Week 11, and this bodes well for Stafford on Thanksgiving Day. While he doesn’t have the high floor that Aaron Rodgers does, he has just as much upside.
Running Back
DeMarco Murray PHI @ DET $4,850
The Lions rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs and with this game having a one point spread, Murray should see a full workload. Ryan Mathews also hasn’t made much progress in regards to his concussion recovery, so Murray likely will only cede a few carries to Darren Sproles.
Darren McFadden DAL vs. CAR $4,850
The Panthers have been much better against the pass than the run, and I think Dallas will lean on McFadden yet again as they did in Week 11. The Cowboys still have an outside shot in their weak division, and they will no doubt be looking to keep the pressure off of Tony Romo. McFadden should be in line for another massive workload on Thursday afternoon.
Wide Receiver
Jerricho Cotchery CAR @ DAL $4,000
When you are playing GPPs that have such a limited player pool to choose from, you need to find that flash in a pan to separate your team from the pack. Cotchery could very well be the guy in Week 12. He will likely see most of his work against Tyler Patmon, who is the weak link in Dallas’ secondary. Cam Newton also has been looking Cotchery’s way as of late, as evidenced by his 15 targets over the last three games.
Calvin Johnson DET vs. PHI $5,300
Johnson is a top-three value in dollars spent per projected point, and while he will likely see a lot of Nolan Carroll, he’s still a good bet to see Byron Maxwell at some point. According to Pro Football Focus, Johnson spends over half of his offensive snaps on the same side of the field that Carroll spends 92% of his time. I expect Detroit to move Johnson around some and get some looks against Maxwell, which won’t end well for the Eagles. Maxwell is ranked 85th among all cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus, and Johnson needs to be on your rosters for this Thanksgiving slate. The pairing with Matthew Stafford carries big upside this week.
Tight End
Brent Celek PHI @ DET $3,800
Celek provides meaningful salary relief in roster construction this week, and he should see plenty of work with Zach Ertz on the shelf. This is a high-volume offense and he really only needs a touchdown to pay off his salary.
Flex
Randall Cobb GB vs. CHI $5,500
Cobb is an intriguing pair with Rodgers this week against the Bears. Chicago’s Bryce Callahan hasn’t been good in coverage and if he’s covering Cobb, look for Rodgers to exploit this.
Greg Olsen CAR @ DAL $4,900
There’s always risk in utilizing two receivers from the same team, and that risk is amplified when they come from an offense like the Panthers’. That being said, Olsen is Cam Newton’s most reliable target, and the safety here is worth targeting. I don’t expect another five-touchdown game from Newton, but Olsen’s floor is high on any given week.
Defense/Special Teams
Green Bay Packers vs. CHI $2,850
Jay Cutler can be prone to turning the ball over at times, and the Packers will be pressuring the quarterback all night long. Green Bay has the most favorable matchup of the day, and this is supported by Chicago’s low 18.5-point implied team total.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
