With the Chargers’ defense bleeding fantasy points to running backs, T.J. Yeldon could pay huge dividends
Whether constructing a cash game lineup or preparing for tournament play, you will need to be able to sort out the value options that are available each week. These plays can arise from a variety of reasons ranging from an injury to simple mispricing. Finding the diamonds in the rough can be the single difference between you and a high-scoring lineup.
Thanksgiving week is here, and I will include value plays from the entire Week 12 schedule. Last week’s value plays included Alex Smith, Brock Osweiler, Darren McFadden and Danny Amendola. Let’s look at some value plays for Week 12.
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Quarterbacks
Brian Hoyer HOU vs. NO $5,700
The Saints have allowed a whopping 28 passing touchdowns this season, and they’ve allowed the second-most passing yards per game. Per Pro Football Focus, Brandon Browner spends a lot of his time on the right side of the field and that just happens to be where stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins lines up 42% of the time. Hoyer looks on track to return this week and, if he does, he will make for an excellent QB2 play at home against New Orleans.
Josh McCown CLE vs. BAL $5,400
Johnny Manziel had a great bye week and has been demoted heading into Week 12 as a result. This leaves McCown as the starter against the Ravens, and it’s a matchup worth targeting. Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright have been awful in coverage, and I expect Cleveland to take a few shots against them. While I don’t think McCown has as high of a ceiling as Hoyer, he still is a viable source of salary relief.
Running Backs
Thomas Rawls SEA vs. PIT $4,650
Rawls ran wild last week in a plus matchup, but things do get a bit tougher in Week 12. Still, it’s tough to ignore the expected touches at this price. I also expect ownership levels to be high this week as the masses chase points. Pittsburgh has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, so be cognizant of this and keep expectations in check. In terms of value, he checks in as the fourth-best option in dollars per projected point.
Javorius Allen BAL @ CLE $4,750
Allen is in line for a massive workload in Week 12 as Justin Forsett is out for the season. He couldn’t get a better matchup as he faces a Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Marc Trestman’s offense also features plenty of action in the passing game for running backs, so look for a solid game from the rookie in Week 12.
T.J. Yeldon JAX vs. SD $4,800
The Chargers are dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs, so Yeldon checks in as a top-10 value this week. Yeldon played 49 offensive snaps in Week 11 compared to 11 for teammate Denard Robinson. The troubling part was the red zone action as Robinson saw five carries inside the 20-yard line. That being said, it’s tough to argue with an assured workload on a weekly basis and we can only hope the touches for Robinson in the red zone were an anomaly.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson DET vs. PHI $5,300
I’m cheating here a bit in terms of overall price, but the inherent value in Johnson is what I want to drive home. He’s a top-three value in dollars spent per projected point, and while he will likely see a lot of Nolan Carroll, he’s still a good bet to see Byron Maxwell at some point. According to Pro Football Focus, Johnson spends over half of his offensive snaps on the same side of the field that Carroll spends 92% of his time. I expect Detroit to move Johnson around some and get some looks against Maxwell, which won’t end well for the Eagles. Maxwell is ranked 85th among all cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus, so Johnson needs to be on your rosters for the Thanksgiving slate.
Travis Benjamin CLE vs. BAL $4,200
Benjamin spends an equal amount of time on both sides of the field, and he will likely draw good matchups on either side. Jimmy Smith ranks 95th and Shareece Wright ranks 76th among cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus, which provides plenty of upside for Benjamin in tournaments.
Golden Tate DET vs. PHI $4,400
If you aren’t rolling the dice with Calvin Johnson, give Tate a look this week. He will line up in the slot against E.J. Biggers, who has struggled in coverage all season long. Tate should only be utilized in tournaments.
Vincent Jackson TB @ IND $4,600
Vontae Davis lines up on the right side of the field nearly 80% of the time, which just so happens to be the side where Mike Evans spends nearly half of his offensive snaps. This will likely leave Jackson lined up against either Darius Butler or Greg Toler, which is good news for the Buccaneers. Butler is the 92nd-ranked cornerback by Pro Football Focus, and Toler isn’t far behind, ranking 89th. Jackson could be in line for a big week and is a great tournament play.
Tight Ends
Delanie Walker TEN vs. OAK $4,600
Walker has been Marcus Mariota’s security blanket this season and Week 11 was no different. He led the team in targets yet again with 10, and he caught eight of those for 109 yards. Walker is the second-best value in terms of dollars per projected point, making him a great, safe play this week.
Brent Celek PHI @ DET $3,800
Zach Ertz has been ruled out for Thursday’s game, so Celek will slide into the starting tight end role. His price does not reflect this, however. While he’s not a must-play, it’s tough to ignore the salary relief he provides in roster construction.
Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals vs. STL $2,850
The Bengals are the top defense in terms of dollars spent per projected point and while stopping Todd Gurley is a tall task, I like them to bounce back after last week’s thumping.
Detroit Lions vs. PHI $2,700
For the Thanksgiving Day slate, give the Lions a look against Mark Sanchez and the Eagles. Sanchez can be prone to turnovers and last week he threw three interceptions. You’re hoping for another performance riddled with errors, and I think Detroit can force a few this week.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
