It’d be surprising if Doug Martin didn’t hit pay dirt against Indianapolis
All you ever hear about are FanDuel and DraftKings. They are the big boys of the industry, arranging multi-million dollar prize pools never before seen in fantasy sports.
While it makes sense to go to where the big money is, there is opportunity playing on smaller, up and coming daily fantasy sites to build a bankroll and profit. Everyone needs bread and butter in between their expensive steak dinner.
Approach it like you would your lineups. You look for value in your lineups by picking players who are cheap but also have potential. The player no one knows about who you can plug into your lineups before their price goes up and posts huge stat lines relative to their cost.
This is how I think of FantasyDraft, which is an up and coming daily fantasy sports website with huge overlays and less competition. An overlay is when a daily fantasy sports website declares a guarantee for a prize pool and it doesn’t fill, meaning you have to beat out fewer people to win more money.
Don’t let the small size fool you. I’ve won close to $7,000 on FantasyDraft since Week 1 of the NFL season. It’s my bread and butter as I branch off and play other sites. Game selection is a skill you’ll need to learn to make it in the long term.
One of the biggest issues players have jumping around to different sites is getting used to pricing. The laws of DFS don’t change from site to site. This article is designed to both give you a lineup to use as well as get a better understanding of how to build your own.
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Eli Manning (NYG @ WAS)
The pricing on FantasyDraft is different than other sites, but the same rules still apply. You’re looking for value against some of the worst defensive teams statistically. Manning is facing the Redskins’ defense that has given up 20 touchdown passes while only picking off opposing quarterbacks six times!
Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. have a great chance to connect for huge chunks of yardage while potentially being under-owned. Most people will be all over Hoyer and Hopkins as they face the New Orleans Saints. This can potentially help you jump 1,000s of lineups if they end up with huge stat lines.
Adrian Peterson (MIN @ ATL)
Most every other running back at 30 posts declining stat lines or suffers sudden and unexpected injuries. If you need an example, look at Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte this year. Before that Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson.
Peterson leads the league in rushing yards looking every bit as effective as he did in his prime. To top it all off, Peterson is the focal point of the Vikings’ offense as Teddy Bridgewater goes through growing pains. The defense also rallies around Peterson has he keeps them off the field, so they are fresh to make plays when they are off the sidelines. The Falcons are imploding and have given up 777 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns and 649 receiving yards and three touchdowns to opposing running backs.
T.J. Yeldon (JAX vs. SD)
Yeldon has been solid, yet unspectacular throughout his rookie campaign. He’s a dual threat at the position and will eventually have a monster game when no one suspects it. This could be that game as the Chargers have given up 13 touchdowns and 1,700+ total yards to the running back position.
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG @ WAS)
Beckham doesn’t believe in sophomore slumps. While he isn’t on the same pace he was his rookie year, Beckham Jr. still could end up in the top five at the position by the end of the 2015 season. This game has shootout appeal, which is exactly the game you want to target. The Redskins have already given up 15 touchdown catches to opposing wide receivers and 1,656 yards.
Michael Crabtree (OAK @ TEN)
Crabtree was once an up and coming wide receiver and compared favorably to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Banished to the black hole of Oakland, he’s now arguably in a much more stable situation long term than he was with the San Francisco 49ers.
He’s also leading the Raiders in targets and is Derek Carr’s favorite target. He’s one of the safest plays at the position this week playing a Titans’ secondary that rotates between being functional and terrible.
Jordan Reed (WAS vs. NYG)
When Jordan Reed is healthy, he’s not only one of the best tight ends in the league but also among the most consistent. He’s also Kirk Cousins‘ favorite target and a red zone threat. He is a freak of nature who is more of a wide receiver than a tight end, creating mismatches all over the field.
In a game with shootout appeal, Reed is the top play at the position. Stacking Reed with Manning and Beckham creates a positive correlation play if it becomes a back and forth affair. If either team is down multiple scores, they will have to throw to catch up. Both Beckham and Reed are also the focal point of their offensive systems, which means they will be heavily involved throughout the season.
Doug Martin (TB @ IND)
In a contract year, Doug Martin has looked like a starting running back. While I expect Martin to secure a contract in the offseason and slip back into obscurity, I think he can post a big stat line against the Indianapolis Colts relative to what his cost is. He’s motivated for the time being, and that’s good enough for me to start him this week.
They just fed him 27 times against the Philadelphia Eagles, which also lead to Jameis Winston throwing five touchdowns. You have to think the Buccaneers will try and utilize the same game plan as the season winds down with a defensive minded, run-first head coach. The Buccaneers will try to run the ball again to set up the pass against a Colts’ defense that has given up 12 total touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Javorius Allen (BAL @ CLE)
Allen is starting by default as the Ravens have lost both Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett to season-ending injuries. Allen has looked more explosive in small doses in comparison to the aging Forsett and is facing the fifth-worst team against opposing running backs in the Cleveland Browns. The price point is just icing on the cake!
New York Jets (NYJ vs. MIA)
I’m well aware that the New York Jets have been trashed through the ground and through the air. It’s as if Revis Island has been engulfed by a tsunami. The ferocious front seven the Jets have invested several first round picks into has looked equally as bad as the Jets struggle on both sides of the ball.
The good news is the Miami Dolphins have been equally, if not more, disappointing. A popular breakout team by Madden enthusiasts everywhere, the Dolphins have struggled to find an identity even with the signing of high-priced free agent Ndamukong Suh.
When picking a defense every week, you can go with the chalk play. That would be the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12, or you could target a defense with talent against a bad team. In this case, the Jets are talented enough to turn it on any game now.
Pride is on the line, and the Dolphins’ offensive line continues to struggle. The Jets also have the talent to take away Lamar Miller and potentially keep Jarvis Landry from having a big game.
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Arash Ghaemi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. You can also find his work at DraftShot.com and follow him @DraftshotAsh.
