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Defense Wins Championships (Week 13)

Defense Wins Championships (Week 13)
The Titans D/ST has a favorable home matchup Week 13

The Titans D/ST has a favorable home matchup Week 13

Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for four straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.

Last year’s Week 13 preview saw the Cleveland Browns at 7-4, the Baltimore Ravens at 7-4, and both teams in the thick of a playoff race. The Browns and Ravens were tied with the Steelers, and both were chasing the 7-3-1 Bengals for first place in the AFC North. The entire division looked good, and the Browns were in the race later than usual. Josh Gordon had just come back, Justin Forsett had just come off a 182-yard rushing game, and if the two teams played in Week 13, it would have been a marquee matchup for Monday Night Football.

This year is not last year. 2015 Browns-Ravens was not a compelling story. Sports media talked more about Cleveland’s third-string QB than their starter, the Ravens were missing just about every offensive player on their roster from Week 1, and were themselves turning to Matt Schaub. Schaub has the dubious distinction of being on a losing roster for 20 regular season weeks in a row from Week 3 of 2013 through Week 11 of 2014, and he has the record for consecutive games with a pick-six.

And yet, as football always seems to do, the media narratives dissolved into an extraordinary game. It may have been for all the wrong reasons, but bad football teams can play good football games, and the finish of Monday’s game was one for the ages. In a genius bit of coaching by Harbaugh and Trestman, they had Matt Schaub throw a dangerous interception with time running down so they could set up the game-winning touchdown. Yeah, I’m sure that was exactly how they drew it up. Will “harder than a Russian” Hill scored the game-winning touchdown off a blocked field goal and the only person in the world who was truly surprised was the intern controlling the Browns’ Twitter feed.

Averages by tier

1 & 1.5: 9.9
2 & 2.5: 7.4
3 & 3.5: 2

Studs and duds was the theme of Week 13. Overall, the average score for a D/ST was just 7.2 points, and we had many of the top-scoring D/STs pegged as start-worthy options. Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Jets, and Arizona all scored 10+ points, and all were listed in our top tier or just below. However, anybody who started the Philadelphia Eagles or New England Patriots probably doesn’t feel so hot about how things went! That makes two dud games in a row for the Eagles, who now get the Patriots themselves, and are our second-worst D/ST of the upcoming week. The Patriots, meanwhile, saw themselves as the loser of an overtime period that saw them sink from a somewhat respectable six points down to two. They were looking even better than that as the game was at its midpoint.

Some D/STs scored well despite a bad projection, as is tradition. The Ravens needed two D/ST TDs, including a kick-six with 0:00 remaining, to score 18 points. Without both fluky plays, they would have scored just six points. When the Browns finally win the Super Bowl, it’s going to be one of the greatest moments in sports history. Let’s hope for the collective sake of Ohioans everywhere that they win the first time they make it, or the region’s hangover may last for weeks.

The Redskins and Lions both turned negative matchups into big wins, leading to top six scores. Washington, in particular, benefited from some unlucky/lucky bounces resulting in interceptions and good field position. And as a perfect illustration of how fickle D/STs can be, look no further than the Houston Texans. Kareem Jackson intercepted a Drew Brees pass at the goal line and turned seven New Orleans points into two Texans D/ST points. The Texans finished with 11 D/ST points on the day. If that pass had been a touchdown instead, the Texans would have been looking at a below-average score of just 6 points.

But if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.

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Week 13 D/ST Scoring (Team – expected points – tier)

  1. Cincinnati Bengals – 10.8 – 1
  2. New England Patriots – 10.6 – 1
  3. Carolina Panthers – 10.4 – 1
  4. Denver Broncos – 10.3 – 1
  5. Tennessee Titans – 10.1 – 1
  6. Washington Redskins – 9.7 – 2
  7. Arizona Cardinals – 9.5 – 2
  8. Minnesota Vikings – 9.2 – 2
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9.2 – 2
  10. Chicago Bears – 9.2 – 2
  11. Buffalo Bills – 9.2 – 2
  12. Pittsburgh Steelers – 9.1 – 2.5
  13. Green Bay Packers – 9.0 – 2.5
  14. Miami Dolphins – 8.8 – 3
  15. Seattle Seahawks – 8.8 – 3
  16. Kansas City Chiefs – 8.4 – 3

Also on tier 3 are Oakland, St. Louis, New York Jets, Houston, Jacksonville, and New York Giants.

Tier 1: Cincinnati, New England, Carolina, Denver, and Tennessee

At this point in the season, none of the top four should surprise you. Cincinnati and Carolina have been among the league leaders all season long, and both have been pegged for weeks as a strong playoff defense. The Patriots, too, have been pegged as a strong playoff defense due to being a relatively matchup-proof boom/bust D/ST in any given week. And the Denver Broncos are not that far removed from their early-season romp through the league. They’re still a very good defense.

All four teams have very good matchups, although all of them are on the road except for the Patriots. Temper expectations with each, but they should still be started across the board.

The Tennessee Titans, however, show up in a situation that hearkens back to 2013-2014 when the Jaguars were the best fade in the league. If you go back a couple weeks to their TNF tilt, you can see why this play is so good. Back in Week 11, we said the Titans were the better play (though they were both good) despite being on the road. Tennessee and Jacksonville finished with 12 and 10 points, respectively. That game was played mostly to expectation, and with the venue being in Nashville this time around, I would expect something similar. However, because the better D/ST is now at home, the Jaguars themselves can be safely avoided after two weeks in a row of start-worthiness. The Titans D/ST has quietly been respectable, with only two truly bad scores of three and a much higher floor than most other options.

I would perhaps start the tier 2 Arizona Cardinals over Tennessee, and some consideration can be given to the other playoff-caliber options below them, but they make an excellent streaming start otherwise.

Tier 2: Washington, Arizona, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Buffalo

Lots of choices here, and one stands above the rest by a significant margin. The Arizona Cardinals rate as tier 2, but they should be considered tier 1 for most intents and purposes. I’m not even entirely sure why they rate so low, to the point where I double checked the data entry to make sure it was correct. The Cardinals expect a low Vegas total from their opponent, they’ve been a good D/ST on the year, and they’re matched up with an anemic St. Louis offense. However, the Rams have been very stingy with allowing sacks, and all things considered, have not been turning the ball over a ton. They’re eighth overall in total giveaways, but an abnormally high fumble total is to blame. They’ve only thrown nine interceptions. Since this game is being played in St. Louis, I think it gives us the final piece of the puzzle, and the projection makes a little more sense.

That all said, don’t get cute. Start the Cardinals unless you have a “real” tier 1 option instead.

Washington is a conundrum to me. Not that they have a confusing matchup, but that their consensus rating on at the time this article is posted sits at just 21. I can barely name five options I’d rather have, let alone 20. The Redskins are at home, they’ve been playing pretty well, and they get Matt Cassel. By raw fantasy points allowed, the Cowboys have literally been the most generous matchup for opposing D/STs. They’ve conceded 24 points twice and 10+ points in 8 of 11 weeks. They even allowed seven D/ST points to the Rob Ryan-led New Orleans Saints! I would stream the Redskins with confidence.

The Minnesota Vikings have been a very hard team to peg this season. Their metrics have at times looked somewhat pedestrian, but they sit at 8-3 and atop the NFC North. They have a couple strong wins under their belt, but also some confusing losses. Mostly, though, this is a team that’s beat up on bad/average teams, so we don’t quite know how good they are. With the Seahawks and Cardinals on the schedule in consecutive weeks, we should have a better idea in two weeks, but that doesn’t help us now!

I would try to stay away from Minnesota this week. The Seattle offensive line makes for an attractive fade, but fading the Seahawks as a whole has not been so kind. They just put up 39 points on the Steelers and have allowed an average of under five points per game for the last month. Without a D/ST TD, the upside simply is not there, and with a truly bad matchup on the horizon (at Arizona), you can get away from the Vikings a lot easier.

In an attempt to get through this bloated tier, we’ll keep things brief on the remaining three teams. Tampa Bay is very difficult to back here, even though they’re at home and get a struggling Atlanta team. This is the same Atlanta team that tore through Dallas and Houston early on and between both of those, Philadelphia, and NY Giants allowed just 6 total D/ST points. Atlanta has been horrible lately, though. With so many strong streaming options on the list above the Bucs, I think we can get away from them, but you could do worse.

Chicago does not have the upside to start here, although again, streamers might not care. They’ve been serviceable in their past few weeks and get one of the best matchups in the league in San Francisco. It’s a home game with a high spread and a low total, and Blaine Gabbert is under center. If it were just about any other team, this would be a tier 1 matchup, but Chicago is bad enough to sink it to tier 2.

Finally, Buffalo is only start-worthy here because they’re at home. Otherwise, the Texans offensive line has been good enough and the Buffalo defensive line has been bad enough that this play should be hands off. Hoyer has gotten back to his Destroyin’ ways, and the Texans own defense should make field position a little more difficult for Buffalo than you might expect. This is a great game on paper between two AFC playoff hopefuls, but I would not want to be on either D/ST if I could avoid it.

Tier 2.5, 3, and below

With so many streaming options this week – Tennessee, Washington, Tampa Bay, Chicago – in relatively great spots, it should be easy to avoid the teams down here. However, some are definitely noteworthy.

Kansas City – don’t be alarmed yet, but Week 12 showed what can happen with their weak secondary. We say injuries rarely matter for D/STs, but if Justin Houston is kept out of their playoff matchups, their value definitely takes a hit. With a bad matchup in Week 13, we can get away from them pretty easily, but I’ll only start to worry if they throw up a dud next week also.

Seattle – still a strong D/ST, still a playoff hold, but it’s a bad matchup on the road. No way around that one. You can definitely start them if your roster space is tight, although I would highly recommend looking at a streaming backup if possible. If not, you could do worse.

Jacksonville – desperate streamers may find solace here, especially if you were already on the Jaguars and need to prioritize a RB/WR/QB/TE and get left out. That’s perfectly fine. I have the Jaguars in tier 3 with the rest of the average/above-average options on the edge of start-worthiness.

Houston – four weeks in a row with four strong D/ST performances. They’ve been good, although I suspect they’ve played above expectation, and we could see some regression going forward. With the Patriots coming to town next week, you’ll need to make arrangements anyway, so I’d look for something that you can use this week also. They’re still a borderline hold going forward.

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Most leagues will wrap up their regular season either this week or next. If you’re in the hunt, good luck. Make smart decisions, don’t second guess yourself, and remember that you choose your starters based on this week’s EV, not past weeks’ averages. If you’re out of the hunt, remember that you could ruin someone’s season this week. Please crush all the dreams you can. It’s the right thing to do. I think it was Abraham Lincoln who famously said, “A house divided against itself cannot stand, and your happiness is worthless if I can’t make the playoffs.”

Good luck in Week 13!

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