The suddenly stellar Ravens’ pass defense could give Russell Wilson a rough time

Now that your fantasy title quest has begun, no more doormat opponents await. Being that quarterback is such a make-or-break position, I thought I’d switch gears from my “Burning Questions” for a moment and focus solely on the tough QB calls. If you find yourself stuck, hopefully the information here can help you formulate your game plan for Week 14 and beyond.

First, I’ll recap the Week 13 installment of Burning Questions:

NOTES: DeVante Parker proved worthy of being in your lineup, and as mentioned last week, look for him to remain fantasy relevant against the Giants and Colts…Bad days were in the forecast for Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, along with the Rams D/ST, and each of those outlooks came to fruition…Tom Brady performed as expected, although I was wrong to hitch my wagon to Brandon LaFell instead of Danny Amendola against Philadelphia’s suspect pass defense.

On to Week 14.

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As a quick prelude, I went with the strategy of waiting on a QB in one of my drafts and wound up with Matt Ryan and Ryan Tannehill, figuring one or the other would emerge as a top-10 option over the course of the season. Along the way, I had also acquired Tony Romo during his (initial) injury as a late-season stash to pair with Dez Bryant. As you have surely deduced by now, things haven’t exactly worked out according to plan.

But given the volatility of the position this year, I know I’m not alone in such a predicament at the QB position entering the fantasy playoffs. Fortunately, several decent replacement options are available. And for those in better shape, just be mindful that the “start your studs” mantra is not one-size-fits-all, particularly at quarterback, where a dud performance is now a season-ender.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

With one exception, each player in this group stands among the top-10 fantasy QBs on the season.

Aaron Rodgers – Since Week 3, Rodgers has tossed more than two touchdowns in a game only once. Including the divisional playoff round, he did that nine times last year, when he and Jordy Nelson were still finishing each other’s sentences. In Week 14, Green Bay faces a Cowboys’ defense that has yielded the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing passers. Don’t be shocked if your QB1 turns in a QB2 performance, although Rodgers does have a tasty Week 15 matchup against Oakland.

Philip Rivers – Rivers is barely on the QB2 radar this week. Not only has Arrowhead Stadium been notoriously unkind to visiting teams over the years, but Rivers just faced the Chiefs at home a few weeks ago and was held to 178 yards and an interception for his lowest fantasy output of the season. Better days lie ahead, however, as he’ll get Miami in Week 15 and Oakland in Week 16, two defenses that rank in the bottom-third of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

Derek Carr – Carr has enjoyed a breakout season, but he’ll have a tough road matchup in Week 14. As you know by now, the Denver Broncos have been the stingiest fantasy defense against opposing passers. Carr had more turnovers than touchdowns when the Raiders hosted Denver back in Week 5, finishing 19th among fantasy QBs. Now, he pays a visit to Mile High Stadium and is coming off a three-interception game against Kansas City.

Russell Wilson – The Ravens’ secondary was brutal throughout the first half of the season, but did you know they’ve allowed an average of only 175 passing yards over their last four games? Wilson is atop all of the expert rankings this week and will be in your lineup, as he should be. Over his last three games, he has completed 77 percent of his passes and accounted for 12 touchdowns (11 passing, one rushing).

Under pressure, Wilson also boasts a ridiculous, yet unsustainable 90.5 accuracy percentage on aimed throws in that span, according to “Pro Football Focus (PFF).” But don’t forget that he was averaging only 235 passing yards and was outside the top-12 fantasy QBs for the season before Week 11. I’m anticipating some regression to the mean on the road this Sunday against an improved defense, so he’s more of a back-end QB1, and I won’t be shocked if he posts his first dud of the season’s second half.

Ryan Tannehill – Similar to Wilson, beware of the inviting matchup on paper for Tannehill against the Giants, who rank 29^th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Then again, considering Tannehill is only 17^th among fantasy QBs on the season and coming off an 86-yard passing effort against the previously mentioned Ravens, you’re probably not expecting a huge game on Monday Night Football, anyway. The message here is simply not to get carried away playing the matchup game.

In the Dolphins’ first game following the firing of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, Tannehill’s pass attempts dipped from 58 to 19. If he acquits himself well, however, a Week 16 home date with the Colts presents Tannehill as a nice “Plan B” to your regular starter.

WORTH ANOTHER LOOK

Each QB below is in fewer than 50 percent of ESPN’s Week 14 lineups, and all but two are available in more than half of leagues.

Blake Bortles – Fantasy’s No. 7 QB is being criminally underutilized in lineups this week (50 percent), especially coming off a 322-yard, five-touchdown game. Ben Roethlisberger just torched the Colts for 364 yards and four touchdowns through the air, which is the eighth time in 12 games the Colts gave up multiple passing TDs. Bortles has nine multi-TD games this season. When the Jaguars visited Indianapolis back in Week 4, he chucked it 50 times and posted the sixth-highest point total among fantasy QBs.

Tyrod Taylor – Taylor has tossed three scores in back-to-back games (and four times this season), which has coincided with Sammy Watkins’ recent breakout. As you may have heard, Philadelphia has allowed 28 passing scores, second-most this season behind only the woeful Saints. What makes Taylor especially intriguing is his high floor. He just broke Drew Bledsoe’s team record for consecutive passes without an interception (187), and he’s averaging more than 30 rushing yards per tilt and a rushing touchdown every third game. Taylor has been held to single-digit fantasy points just once this year and trails only Cam Newton in fantasy points per drop back (0.62), per PFF.

Jameis Winston – Speaking of Newton, he became the latest QB to light up the league’s worst pass defense, tossing five TDs against the Saints in Week 13. Five of New Orleans’ last six opponents have eclipsed 300 yards through the air, and Winston should reach that mark this week. Also like Taylor, Winston has a high floor as he boasts at least 13 fantasy points in every game, an impressive feat for a rookie. As a bonus, Mike Evans lines up most often on the left side, and the struggling Brandon Browner plays mostly right cornerback, which makes this PFF’s biggest WR-CB mismatch for Week 14.

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Fitzpatrick’s 390 yards against the Giants were the most passing yards by a Jets’ quarterback since Vinny Testaverde 15 years ago, and that followed a four-touchdown effort in Week 12. Now, he gets a Titans’ defense that just got lit up by Bortles for five scores and ranks 26^th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Excluding the Week 8 game when Fitzpatrick exited with a torn left thumb ligament on the opening drive, he has been a top-10 fantasy QB in terms of fantasy points per game. Despite that, he’s outside the top-10 in the expert consensus rankings for Week 14 and is being started in fewer than 25 percent of ESPN leagues.

Marcus Mariota – The experts have Mariota pegged as a low-end QB2 this week against a Jets’ defense that has given up 22 passing scores. Darrelle Revis has yet to be cleared from the concussion that cost him the previous two games, although he did return to practice on Thursday and said he expects to play. Regardless of Revis’ status for Sunday, you should feel pretty good about starting Mariota, who has thrown at least three touchdowns in three of the five games since Mike Mularkey took over the coaching duties in Tennessee. Of course, the rookie also ran for 112 yards last week and notched his second rushing TD in three games.

DESPERATION HEAVES

We’re into the Hail Mary section, although each of these players is appealing on some level

Brian Hoyer – Excluding when Hoyer was dealing with a concussion (Weeks 10 and 11), he has tossed multiple scores in seven straight games. The Texans will be playing on their home turf indoors on Sunday night, although they’ll be facing a Patriots’ defense that has allowed only one of their last six opposing quarterbacks to post a top-20 fantasy score.

Sam Bradford – Somewhat quietly, Bradford has posted a 105.6 QB rating over his last three starts, and the Eagles are 5-2 in the last seven games he started and finished. This week, he’ll face a Bills’ defense that’s allowed two straight QBs to eclipse 20 fantasy points against them. However, Bradford has only one such game all season.

Johnny Manziel – We’re really into the Hail Mary portion now, but if you are the high-risk, high-reward type, Manziel is your guy. He gets a suspect 49ers’ secondary at home this week, and favorite target Travis Benjamin says he’ll be active on Sunday despite suffering a shoulder injury last week. Benjamin’s availability is important, considering he caught 7-of-11 targets for 113 yards in Manziel’s last start against Pittsburgh in Week 10. Through the first two weeks of the season, Benjamin had more than 200 yards receiving to go with three touchdowns from Manziel.

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Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.