Jeremy Langford

It has long been suspected the Bears would be cutting ties with franchise icon Matt Forte this offseason, and on Friday, the man who trails only the great Walter Payton in the team’s rushing annals (8,602) confirmed both sides are indeed parting ways.

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As for Forte, the veteran turned 30 years old in December and obviously has a lot of mileage on his tires. Still, his numbers last season were on par with his career averages, although he did miss three games with a sprained MCL. Forte will certainly carry fantasy value assuming he lands in the right situation – he remains a locker room leader and one of the game’s top receiving backs – just don’t expect a workhorse role. And frankly, it would be silly to speculate where he may end up, in mid-February, before the combine or draft or any market is established. If you want to throw darts, just about any team out there could use Forte’s services if the price were right.

Now, on to Chicago’s shiny new toy; Jeremy Langford. This was what I wrote about Langford as an incoming rookie back in July:

As the successor to Le’Veon Bell at Michigan State, Langford produced a combined 2,944 yards (5.2 YPC) and 40 TDs over his last two seasons. He then turned some heads with a 4.42 40 time at the combine. At 5-foot-11 and 208 pounds, Langford has some shake and bake to his game, but scouts question his physicality at the next level. Still, with starter Matt Forte entering a contract year and set to turn 30 in December, the Bears will need to find out what else they have in the cupboard. Ka’Deem Carey starred at Arizona but didn’t exactly establish himself as the heir apparent last year as a rookie. Change-of-pace back Jacquizz Rodgers is the only other obstacle on the depth chart.

None of this is to say that, because Langford and Bell both starred for MSU and then posted uninspiring yards-per-carry averages as rookies (3.6 YPC and 3.5 YPC, respectively), Langford is now primed for the same second-year breakout that Bell enjoyed. And, for that matter, don’t automatically assume that Langford is ready to replicate Forte’s production in his prime.

I had a little Twitter debate with Yahoo’s Brad Evans about Langford’s outlook, and let’s just say we see things differently. Evans noted Bell’s rookie year yards-after-contact percentage (65.1), missed tackles rate (14.8), and the fact that he played at a heavier weight to conclude they are not the same running back. Since I write for Pro Football Focus, I’m going to use their numbers, which still support Evans’ argument that Bell (as a rookie) caused missed tackles at a more frequent rate than Langford: 15.9 percent vs. 5.8 percent.

Fair enough. And to that, I say Langford got 126 less touches as a rookie. So if we break down yards after contact per attempt, it’s only 2.11 Yco/Att vs. 1.76 in favor of Bell. Langford still impacted games by gaining tough yards and proving capable as a receiver (109 receiving yards vs. the Rams in Week 10), not to mention that patience and vision are hardly developed traits for any rookie rusher – Bell and Langford included. Chicago’s offense stayed afloat with Langford filling the featured role during Forte’s three-game absence, and that performance was enough to convince the coaches to let the duo split the workload moving forward (and to not tender Forte a contract).

CONCLUSION

At the end of the day, I like Langford as an upside RB2 in 2016. In a limited sample size as a rookie, he touched the ball 170 times and produced seven touchdowns, which roughly translates to one TD per game in a workhorse role. And that’s the basis for my positive outlook, because we have to project forward, not backward. In fantasy, opportunity is king, and unless Chicago goes out and drafts Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry, Langford is in line to touch the rock an awful lot in 2016. He took a humble (and smart) approach as a rookie, studying Forte’s every move, asking questions and even working out with the veteran. And if you ask me, that’s as good a model as any to learn the ropes from.

Langford will be a viable option toward late-Round 2/early-Round 3 in fantasy drafts this summer.

Mike Castiglione is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, you can view his archive or follow him @RickDancin.