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Fantasy Basketball Buy/Sell: Week 16

Fantasy Basketball Buy/Sell: Week 16
Jae Crowder continues to be one of this season's biggest surprises

Jae Crowder continues to be one of this season’s biggest surprises

There are only a few more weeks left in the regular season of standard fantasy leagues, meaning that your league’s trade deadline is probably just around the corner if it hasn’t already passed. With that in mind, if you still have moves to make, now is the time to stop procrastinating and get them done. We’re not suggesting you take unnecessary risks just because you can, but if you have some players that simply don’t fit with your team’s strategy, you’re running out of time to get fair value for them.

Soon, all you will have left is the waiver wire, and while that can be helpful and often necessary, it will be difficult to get the same return from a free agent pool as you could get trading with other owners. So check out who we have highlighted this week, and hopefully it’s not too late to make that last key upgrade.

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BUY

Jae Crowder – SF – Boston Celtics
As has been mentioned in previous articles, Crowder has been one of the best fantasy surprises of the year. He’s managed to produce across the board with remarkable consistency, but there have been times when his owners probably figured their luck had run out.

He’s currently in the middle of one of those down stretches as Crowder’s February has gotten off to a slow start. So far this month, he’s averaging just 9.3 points (39.5% FG, 14.3% 3PT, 71.4% FT), 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.5 threes in 30.8 minutes. His percentages from the field (including beyond the arc) and the line have dropped, leading his scoring to fall by 6.5 points per game compared to January.

This drop in production is most likely a result of his recent struggles with both ankle and shin injuries that, while not limiting his playing time much, have certainly affected his offensive output. Considering the All-Star break is just around the corner, Crowder should soon get the rest he needs to get back to full health, making him a good target to buy low.

Aaron Gordon – PF/SF – Orlando Magic
Gordon has shown great potential with impressive athletic ability and a ceiling that’s far beyond his current output. Since grabbing the starting position from Channing Frye, Gordon’s averaged 10.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals and one block in 30 minutes per game. That makes his current value, ignoring potential, that of a low-end standard league play.

When you take into account that potential, however, his value definitely improves. If he can realize just part of that potential this year, his fantasy stock will quickly rise, and with him having recently produced two duds, now is a great time to buy low on the Orlando rookie.

HOLD

Darren Collison – PG – Sacramento Kings
Collison may not currently be worth owning in all standard leagues, but for those owners who can afford to sit on him, the waiting could prove fruitful. When the Kings decide to go small, Collison has already shown he can be of use, but add any injury to the starting Sacramento backcourt to that, and he would quickly become an asset in most leagues. In fact, over his last five games, Collison has averaged 17 points while shooting 59.2 percent from the field in 25.2 minutes.

As long as Rondo remains healthy, Collison will remain a bench player focused on scoring more than anything else, but with Rondo recently dealing with turf toe, Collison’s chances for starters’ minutes have only improved. Rondo hasn’t been forced to miss any time because of the injury, but turf toe can be a fickle thing and could very well return again. Once again, he may not be worth owning in all leagues, but if you have him now and don’t need any immediate production out of the point guard, Collison is an interesting player to sit on.

Jordan Clarkson – PG/SG – Los Angeles Lakers
Clarkson has been by far the most consistent Laker this season and one of the most consistent players in the NBA. Now in his second year as a professional, Clarkson has scored in double digits in all but five games so far this year. With that kind of steady offensive production, you’d expect at least a few high-end outliers along the way, but he’s only scored 24 or more points twice.

It’s as if the guy’s floor and ceiling are one, regardless of who the Lakers play. Whether it be the best or worst defense in the league, Clarkson continues to play his game. He rarely gets flustered and rarely takes on more than he can handle. His current seasonal averages of 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.1 steals and one three-pointer have him as a mid-to-low-end value in standard leagues, and his ECR has hovered around 80 all season.

There’s something to be said about a player whose usefulness isn’t dependent on matchups, and while Clarkson’s performances haven’t exactly been awe-inspiring, they’ve certainly helped to alleviate the daily stress that comes with fantasy basketball. Every good team needs a player like Clarkson, so there’s a good chance he is more valuable to his current owners than to anyone else who would consider trading for him. If you have your sights set on the playoffs, keep him around and spend your time worrying about other less reliable players.

SELL

Gorgui Dieng – C/PF – Minnesota Timberwolves
Dieng’s been another nice fantasy surprise this year, and lately, his numbers have skyrocketed. With Kevin Garnett having missed the past seven games due to a sore right knee, Dieng has gotten the opportunity to take his place in the starting lineup and has made the most of it. He finished off January by scoring in double digits four times, three of which he recorded nine or more rebounds.

So far, in his first four games of February, Dieng is averaging an impressive 18.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and four assists in 36.3 minutes. The increase in playing time certainly has something to do with his improved production, but shooting over 70 percent from the floor and 83 percent from the line can’t hurt either. He seems to get better with every bit of added responsibility, but that improvement is bound to taper off eventually.

In fact, with the All-Star break looming, it could happen sooner rather than later. With the break, it’s quite likely that Garnett will finally have had enough time to rehab his knee and return, thereby eating into Dieng’s court time. Dieng will undoubtedly continue to see starter’s minutes, but there is a good chance that his value will take at least a minor hit, meaning that now is probably the best time to see how much he’s worth in your respective league.

Markieff Morris – PF/SF – Phoenix Suns
Unlike Crowder and Dieng, Morris was quite the fantasy disappointment earlier in the season as he quickly fell out of former Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek’s good graces and spent more and more time on the bench as the season went on. However, Hornacek was eventually fired, and now it’s Earl Watson who’s calling the shots. Under Watson, Morris has quickly regained his place in the starting lineup and, as a result, has once again become fantasy relevant.

After averaging just 9.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 0.1 threes in 22.8 minutes in January (numbers that were, believe it or not, better than his December figures), Morris has seen dramatic improvements across the board to start February. So far this month, he’s putting up 20.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.3 threes in 35.7 minutes. It is a shocking turn around, but unfortunately for him and his owners, it’s unlikely to last.

While he probably won’t return to such lows as he saw earlier in the season, there’s a reasonable chance Morris will be traded, and wherever he ends up, he isn’t going to continue seeing 35-40 minutes a game. There’s no doubt about it that now is a great time to profit on a cause that once seemed hopelessly lost.

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George Haw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from George, check out his archive and follow him @georgeWarfieldH.

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